Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Steel Icarus]

Remember when 1000 cases a day was terrifying. Jesus those figures today

 

[StoneRoad]

Looking at those figures reported today is making me feel very vulnerable / terrified.

Had to make a trip outside this morning and deliberately drove the long way around, to avoid the "town" centre.
If our local figures don't start dropping, I'm going to be wearing a mask all the time I'm outside my household bubble.

How hard is the Hands : Face : Space + fresh air things to remember ? for pete's sake.

 

[Mation]

1325

FFS

That's a full on punch in the guts.

In the past, looking at 1918+ flu deaths, I've thought it was unimaginably awful and that covid, as appalling as it is, won't come close. I'm starting to wonder.

 

[elbows]

Not in deaths, they tend to lag around 28 days after infection.

Whatever the actual gaps between different stages of infection, illness, hospitalisations and death are in reality, they certainly arent that long in the data we get.

Peaks in admissions, numbers in hospital and deaths were quite close together in the first wave, eg within about a week of each other. We didnt have much of a testing system back then so its probably not wise for me to compare the gap between positive cases and the other measures from that time. But in the earlier part of this second wave, there wasnt really much gap between positive cases reported and hospital admissions. But there are also differences in how quickly these different numbers are collated and reported publicly, so I probably cant say exactly which measure will give us the initial indication. Probably either positive cases reported or daily admissions. Or perhaps the likes of the data from the ZOE covid tracking app.

 

[elbows]

That's a full on punch in the guts.

In the past, looking at 1918+ flu deaths, I've thought it was unimaginably awful and that covid, as appalling as it is, won't come close. I'm starting to wonder.

In terms of the total number of people who died of all causes in 2020, that year will resemble 1918 in some ways, at a minimum it will stick out in a huge way compared to the years around it just like 1918 did, but the actual total may also be quite similar. But obviously we have a population of a different size and with a different age profile to the one of 1918.

 

[Numbers]

It's awful. More and more people I know have got it. It just feels like its closing in.

Same, currently in our world my sister and her husband, my sister in law, my 2 best mates, 2 close colleagues and 2 of my neighbours are positive, my sister had it the worst but is thankfully recovering well, the others have had different degrees of illness. Fuckin so scary tho.

 

[elbows]

The deaths numbers mentioned above are only by reporting date, so are distorted as usual.

As far as actual deaths per day, we don't know yet. The rate would have had to have increased very rapidly over the past few days to get us close to the April peak (maybe it has). This is "Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death"

It probably hasnt reached first wave peak levels yet, more a question of whether it will in the coming week or so. Its clearly heading in that direction but may yet fall short in terms of maximum peak values. I wouldnt like to say either way, especially as some healthcare systems are now well into the danger zone where we would expect more people to be avoiding treatment, longer waits for treatment, stretched staffing levels etc, which in theory cause higher levels of death.

I also need to remember to take an occasional look at the measures of death that do not have the 28 day limit. The UK dashboard does include the alternative 'deaths within 60 days' measure as well in more places these days, but I tend to jump straight to using ONS death certificate deaths, and that data has a lot of additional lag so isnt really suitable for monitoring the unfolding situation day by day.

Here is the most recent version of my colour-coded graph, showing where the high reported levels of death in recent days fit into things by actual date of death. Uses the deaths within 28 days of a positive test measure.

 

[brogdale]

The psychopathic tories have brought us to the point of complete collapse.

 

[Mation]

In terms of the total number of people who died of all causes in 2020, that year will resemble 1918 in some ways, at a minimum it will stick out in a huge way compared to the years around it just like 1918 did, but the actual total may also be quite similar. But obviously we have a population of a different size and with a different age profile to the one of 1918.

I'm wondering about it proportionally. Actual numbers grim as fuck for both periods.

 

[Artaxerxes]

It cannot grow exponentially forever because as more people are infected, the virus starts to run out of new people to infect. This is not an outcome we should work towards however.

Remember when that was the government plan?

Based on the figures might still be

 

[frogwoman]

Laura Spinney's book says that Spanish Flu had an 0.28 to 0.4% population fatality rate in Britain. In countries like India it was more like 5% or higher

Wouldn't surprise me if Covid matches the lower figure in New Jersey it's already 0.22% of the entire population who have died from Covid.

 

[LDC]

Laura Spinney's book says that Spanish Flu had an 0.28 to 0.4% population fatality rate in Britain. In countries like India it was more like 5% or higher

Wouldn't surprise me if Covid matches the lower figure in New Jersey it's already 0.22% of the entire population who have died from Covid.

0.28% of UK population is 196,000 by my shit maths? Considering we're fast approaching 100,000 it's not entirely unrealistic we might get to 196,000.

 

[LDC]

BBC covering ECMO patients at the moment. Absolutely grim as fuck.

I really struggle to think of the people who still go on about this not being real or being over-hyped. I'm not sure I'd be able to control my anger if someone came out with that stuff to my face.

 

[elbows]

2 weeks tomorrow, so should start to really feel the festive surge from now on.

I have the same stance I took before Christmas, in that I dont know how much that will actually end up showing up clearly in the data.

Partly because the trajectory was already so bad in some regions well before Christmas day. Partly because of the countering effect of more restrictions having come in, and of schools being off on holiday. And because the mood music changed before Christmas and put the shits up lots of people, presumably resulting in further behavioural changes (in the same way mobility etc changed big time a full week before the shit government actually ordered the original lockdown).

Also Christmas holidays can affect data reporting, testing system etc, in ways that could show up in the data more strongly than a real change in infection rates on a particular day might. In this case the cases by reporting date data didnt seem to have big holes in it over the Christmas period, quite the opposite, and its actually the cases by specimen data that has some interesting post-Christmas spikes that may have reflected delays to certain groups of people seeking tests at Christmas.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This makes for grim reading.

The daily Covid reported UK death toll has hit a record high and is not expected to ease for at least a month, with the government preparing to ramp up “stay at home” warnings amid concerns over compliance. Deaths recorded within 30 days of a positive Covid test reached 1,325 on Friday. With new cases continuing to rise – also to a new record of 68,053 – government insiders are privately warning it could be mid-February before the death rate has peaked and declines significantly, as vaccinations reach more of those people most at risk.

One member of the government’s Sage advisory group told the Guardian: “Even if we vaccinated all over-80s today we would not see a change in the death rates for five weeks or so, and it will not impact on hospitalisation for a long time afterwards (when the over-60s have been vaccinated). It is impossible to overemphasise the seriousness of the current situation. We are in a much worse position than we were in March.”

If public compliance with new national lockdown rules is not strong enough, government experts fear death rates may plateau rather than dropping sharply as they did after last year’s lockdown. It could mean strict measures remaining in place for longer. A Department of Health source said: “Compliance is the big thing, and it’s important that people realise it’s not just egregious raves or parties – it’s individual, small acts that add up to a big impact.”

Boris Johnson announced the new shutdown in a broadcast message on Monday evening, closing schools to most pupils just a day after they had reopened following the Christmas break.

But Downing Street fears the message has not hit home with a public weary of being trapped in their homes. A source said: “Anecdotally, and looking at some of the data, there are concerns that this is being treated like the November lockdown, rather than the March lockdown.”

Chris Whitty to front warning ads as UK Covid deaths hit new daily peak

Chief medical officer to urge public to ‘act like you got it’ after 1,325 people recorded dead

www.theguardian.com

 

[frogwoman]

Not sure I agree. People very scared round here, about 40% masked up even outside

 

[elbows]

Its another reason I need to study recent mobility data.

I suppose since certain aspects of the second wave went in slow motion compared to the first, I expect reductions to be slower once we reach that stage too.

If the government want people to slam the brakes on harder then in addition to advert campaigns it will require things like terrible daily news stories and headline figures. But the government need to consider other things like shuttering a wider range of jobs, reducing the numbers attending school (they are much higher this time apparently), and should also consider introducing some measures that are unexpected and have some shock value. Daily press conferences were also part of setting the scene and keeping people in a particular state of mind the first time.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not sure I agree. People very scared round here, about 40% masked up even outside

I assume you're disagreeing about compliance, because clearly the first part of that article is true, new cases are still going up, and with lag that means both hospitalisations & deaths will go up, as sure as night follows day.

But when it comes to compliance, it would appear that you, like me, live in an area where this is being treated seriously, not that that has helped us to stop cases going from 25 per 100k to about 720 in a little over 5 weeks here. But, clearly from other urb's posts, compliance remains at best 'mixed' in other places.

The article I linked demonstrates use on public transport in London is far higher than lockdown 1, as is the numbers attending school*.

* ETA, as elbows has just mentioned in his post above mine.

 

[editor]

FUCKING HELL! On in 20!

Sadiq Khan has likened London’s hospitals to “theatres of war” as he warned that as many as one in 20 people have coronavirus in the capital’s infection hotspots.

1 in 20 Londoners have Covid in parts of the capital, mayor warns

Sadiq Khan has likened London’s hospitals to “theatres of war” as he warned that as many as one in 20 people have coronavirus in the capital’s infection hospots.

www.standard.co.uk

 

[8ball]

FUCKING HELL! On in 20!

Sadiq Khan has likened London’s hospitals to “theatres of war” as he warned that as many as one in 20 people have coronavirus in the capital’s infection hotspots.

1 in 20 Londoners have Covid in parts of the capital, mayor warns

Sadiq Khan has likened London’s hospitals to “theatres of war” as he warned that as many as one in 20 people have coronavirus in the capital’s infection hospots.

www.standard.co.uk

1 in 20 right now.

Yeah, that's pretty frightening.

 

[elbows]

I suppose since certain aspects of the second wave went in slow motion compared to the first, I expect reductions to be slower once we reach that stage too.

Also some of what I described there as slow motion was in fact because of greater regional variation. And thats another reason Id expect overall figures to decrease painfully slowly at times, since things may still be going up in some areas whilst falling in others. We already saw that affect the numbers during the 'november measures' dip.

Speaking of which, I normally stick the following graph in the worldwide thread, but I'll put it here this time because the UK figure is so bad these days and because the graph shows the complicated nature of the second wave (and inadequate response to it) compared to the first.

Number of Covid-19 patients in hospital:

 

[mx wcfc]

(the ft let me read an article via FB, but wouldn't let me post it here)

 

[cupid_stunt]

The FT has been sending articles to my FB. This is interesting to see the Tories already pointing fingers at each other.

Rightwing sceptics helped deepen the UK’s Covid crisis

Contrarian Conservatives preyed on Boris Johnson’s insecurities and slowed government response

www.ft.com

There needs to be a reckoning after this.

Can you copy & paste the article here? Only that link is behind a paywall.

 

[mx wcfc]

Can you copy & paste the article here? Only that link is behind a paywall.

yeah, sorry - see my edit above. FB link let me see it. Lets see if I can

 

[mx wcfc]

Tories pointing the finger......from the FT

There needs to be a reckoning after this

Spoiler: FT article

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here.
Subscribe to read | Financial Times

Author Robert Shrimsley

Viruses do not respect ideology. You cannot persuade a pandemic to seek a middle way. And yet when judgment into the UK’s coronavirus response is finally passed it will be hard to escape the conclusion that excessive attention to Tory dogma has cost both lives and livelihoods. The story of Britain’s crisis has been one of delaying the inevitable until it is unavoidable, a vicious cycle of slow response followed by sharp correction which lasts longer for starting later. This pattern reached a peak on Monday in a juddering reverse which saw a full lockdown. Schools were told to close on the day they reopened, hours after Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested such a response was not necessary. Allies point to new data, but much of the information was already in plain sight. The UK has been unlucky in the arrival of a more transmissible variant but, in the words of one member of the government’s scientific group for emergencies, “you make your own bad luck”. Scientific advisers are clear that letting an RNA virus expand into the community at the end of 2020 increased the chance of being hit by a virulent mutation. There are no easy choices; each policy is ruinous for someone. Mr Johnson was not wrong to try to contain the virus while keeping schools open, though this depended on disastrously over-optimistic assessments of contact tracing and then mass testing capacity. The mistake was failing to act swiftly when it became clear this strategy was not working. Yet, there has been one other significant factor. Mr Johnson’s decisions have been overly deferential to and fearful of libertarian conservatives and their media outriders. A vocal core of MPs and pundits driven by ideology or contrarianism have argued for fewer restrictions, disputed data and denounced a sinister health establishment. They disdained face masks and argued, with varying degrees of honesty, that higher deaths among the old and infirm are a price worth paying to keep society open. Even after figures showed 1 in 50 have the virus, the Lockdown Sceptics website on Wednesday had a section headed “Where’s the pandemic?” which declared “cases are just positive tests”. That the sceptics knew Mr Johnson’s own instincts were against severe restrictions made no difference. While some Tory MPs were questioning certain measures or government failures, others rubbished the scientific advice, made him sweat over every vote and talked up leadership challenges. They were fortified by increasingly hysterical pundits in the Tory press. These hardline ideologists have inhibited an already indecisive premier. Finally there are signs of a reckoning with reality. Tory sceptics, meeting as the Covid Recovery Group, are now focused on the speed of the vaccination campaign and a more justified assault on the failings of education secretary Gavin Williamson. But the damage has been done. The UK’s death rate and economic prospects are among the worst in Europe. For most of this crisis these backbench MPs and pundits have had a champion to cheer at the top of cabinet. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, played a key role in fighting for fewer restrictions and challenging scientific advice at decisive moments. Mr Sunak should not be lumped in with the other agitators. He has never denied the seriousness of the pandemic. It was important that someone speaks for public finances and the economy. But his words have been seized on by rightwing MPs who used his status to increase pressure on Mr Johnson. It is also hard not to conclude that he has been at the wrong end of some big calls, not because he spoke for the economy but because he reached the wrong verdict on how best to serve it. At the height of Tory dissatisfaction with Mr Johnson, when MPs were talking up Mr Sunak as an imminent successor, the chancellor talked the prime minister out of a mid-September circuit breaker. One adviser, who pushed for urgent action then, observes “too much airtime” was given to contrarians whose arguments were not supported by data. Between early September and early October, the number of reported daily cases rose from 1,200 to 12,000, necessitating the stricter and more long lasting restrictions that have proved more costly to business. In fairness to the chancellor, his stance might have been more justified had the contact tracing worked better, or mass testing been widely available. But he was aware of the problems. An honest desire to save the hospitality sector has probably made things worse. An excessive focus on the price of furlough and other support led to decisions which probably increased the ultimate cost. Latest coronavirus news Follow FT's live coverage and analysis of the global pandemic and the rapidly evolving economic crisis here. Fighting restrictions has extended the misery. Around the world the economies which are coping best are those which best controlled the epidemic. There is no reason to question Mr Sunak’s motives but his status as an “oven ready” successor spooked the prime minister and made him nervous of facing down sceptics in his party, even though voters support his stance. His insecurity and the ferocious assaults by erstwhile allies led him to pay too much heed to his right flank over his health secretary or advisers. None of this absolves Mr Johnson. It is his job to make the tough calls. But when this crisis is past, the UK would do well to take a hard look at those rightwing pundits and MPs who spent 2020 pressuring him out of decisive action, and to ask if these are people whose views we should still heed in the future.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Can you copy & paste the article here? Only that link is behind a paywall.

Google the headline to get the article, why ft article

 

[cupid_stunt]

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy.

Cheers.

Probably better to edit your post, and put the article in spoiler tags, so search engines don't see it, and the FT doesn't come after urban over copyright.

 

[mx wcfc]

Cheers.

Probably better to edit your post, and put the article in spoiler tags, so search engines don't see it, and the FT doesn't come after urban over copyright.

always wondered how to do spoilers...... can you help?

 

[cupid_stunt]

always wondered how to do spoilers...... can you help?

Here. mate...

 

[8ball]

Here. mate...

View attachment 247814

I'm such a derp - I always just type in the code.