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hang the bankers
it's called Ayurveda, what you're talking about.
elbows
Well-Known Member
It is not less infectious than SARS.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I guess this is a pretty good indicator of how serious things are in Iran!
(from BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51716375 )
(from BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51716375 )
Fewer infectious
Yes, by one ball.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm just not a fan of talking abour R0 as if it is one number, rather than an estimated range. Nor am I a big fan of comparing different diseases using that measure.
There are just too many factors that can influence the number for my liking, and nor are such things expected to remain constant over time, since human behaviour can have a big impact on the number too.
And different numbers will be found in different reports. For example here is what a paper from January said:
www.biorxiv.org
Or this for comparison:
www.medicalnewstoday.com
There are just too many factors that can influence the number for my liking, and nor are such things expected to remain constant over time, since human behaviour can have a big impact on the number too.
And different numbers will be found in different reports. For example here is what a paper from January said:
Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Background Since December 29, 2019, pneumonia infection with 2019-nCoV has rapidly spread out from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China to most others provinces and other counties. However, the transmission dynamics of 2019-nCoV remain unclear. Methods Data of confirmed 2019-nCoV cases before January...
Or this for comparison:
Coronavirus may spread faster than WHO estimate
An analysis of existing studies suggests that the real spread of the virus may be higher than what the World Health Organization have estimated so far.
www.medicalnewstoday.com
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
So does anyone have a good handle on what a mild case of this disease actually looks like, in terms of severity of symptoms and duration? We are told 80% of cases are mild or asymptomatic, but what does a mild case really mean? Is it a 3 day, nothing to worry about illness, or is it a two to three week thing which knocks you off your feet?
Mordi
Amoral adventurist
Fever to the prisons?
elbows
Well-Known Member
WHO have been mentioning stuff that is a big part of the reason I dont put much weight on very many estimates yet.
I am not criticising anyone that needs to do proper planning as part of an organisation for using the various estimates that are out there already - you have to use something and these are the best that can be come up with at this stage, and may turn out to be reasonable. They are certainly evidence-based observations, its just a question of whether anything in our current blind spots could radically change the picture. And I personally cannot really take these numbers and run with them to a conclusion, not without results from the serology stuff the WHO is going on about there.
I am not criticising anyone that needs to do proper planning as part of an organisation for using the various estimates that are out there already - you have to use something and these are the best that can be come up with at this stage, and may turn out to be reasonable. They are certainly evidence-based observations, its just a question of whether anything in our current blind spots could radically change the picture. And I personally cannot really take these numbers and run with them to a conclusion, not without results from the serology stuff the WHO is going on about there.
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sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Could be both.
Here's a case summary of 2 from the Princess Diamond
COVID-19 in 2 Persons with Mild Upper Respiratory Tract Symptoms on a Cruise Ship, Japan
COVID-19 in Persons with Mild Respiratory Tract Symptoms
wwwnc.cdc.gov
Case 1 never even had a fever: a cough, soreness in throat (which lasted day 3 - day 5 only) and rhinorrhea (mucus), well enough to work and probably would have done so had there not been notification of the Hong Kong passenger on board the ship
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
I recalled reading something interesting re this a way back In the thread and have managed to find it - however the relevant part (from an article posted by Supine) was highlighted by you
Tbf that was a while ago and I guess there may be new observations made by this point, although that was reported by a Dr in Wuhan, where they obviously had enough significant experience by then anyway.
8ball
AV REFUGEES WELCOME
V. fair, but that style of graphic is a nice and really efficient and intuitive way of getting some basic information across imo.
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
elbows - have you heard any more about the two linked cases in the U.S.?
Genetic analysis of a new Washington State sample from a case that was just discovered, suggests, to the following expert at least, a strong link to the first US case that was detected in the same area in January. Click the tweet to read the full thread.
And it sounds like that first case in January was only detected because of very timely vigilance and research on the part of the infected person...
Coronavirus Case Confirmed in Washington State
Health officials closely monitoring the situation.www.infectioncontroltoday.com
elbows
Well-Known Member
Let me approach it from a different angle, one where I pretend I didnt know much about the numbers involved before I saw that graphic.
I believe the question that would spring to mind would be 'so if SARS is more transmissible, how come we managed to contain that one without it spreading to as many people and countries as this new coronavirus has?'.
I'm pretty sure there are a whole bunch of answers to that question, some of which are probably quite interesting. But I'm getting sick of the sight of my own words so I will leave it for others to answer if they find the angle interesting.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure what sort of 'contact tracing' stuff we are going to learn about publicly in regards US outbreaks, other than obvious stuff we can make assumptions about or that gets picked up by the press. So in terms of the link between these two cases, it was really all about the genetic similarities and what that allows that branch of science to assume. The assumption in this instance being that the earlier case infected other unknown people, starting a chain of transmission over 6 subsequent weeks that was only picked up on when some rather ill people were tested. Its probably far too broad at this stage to attempt contact/chain of transmission tracing all the way back to the January case.
Unfortunately it has resulted in, among other things, an institutional outbreak. So it is not hard to find stories about the human side of this growing cluster of cases in Washington State, but I'm not sure thats what you were after.
In terms of the story the genetic detail may be able to tell, I recommend following the nextstrain twitter account, because sometimes when new samples are added to the database/tree, they tell a little story about what the implication is, here are a few examples:
8ball
AV REFUGEES WELCOME
Fair point. Many dimensions - very easy to for different people to read different things into it, plus a lack of precise definition of what the blobs actually mean.
But let's say you're using that schema for representing something a lot simpler - it's a good and easy to read schema, easily translateable, intuitive etc.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Oh actually in terms of the original expert who floated this possibility, he has since written a blog post on it:
A highly recommended post that one, for anyone who intends to follow the whole genome-based approach to epidemiology.
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sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Oh actually in terms of the original expert who floated this possibility, he has since written a blog post on it:
A highly recommended post that one, for anyone who intends to follow the whole genome-based approach to epidemiology.
Really interesting but obvs very scary, too.
It's exceptionally frustrating that the dialogue around it being possible to contain (which comes from almost every source) which all use China as the example, still seemingly completely ignores the massive impact of lock-down.
It just seems insane to continue to deliberately ignore that one monumental lesson.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
From what I could gather from the radio while driving Iran is of great concern at the moment with there being the potential it could have China like levels of infections.
At my GP surgery their noticeboard said that symptoms can include a runny nose, something that differs from advice that I had earlier seen (not from an authoritative source) which said if you have a runny nose you DONT have it! Who would have thought it - unreliable information from non expert sources.
As it happens I have had a runny nose for about the last month! :-/
At my GP surgery their noticeboard said that symptoms can include a runny nose, something that differs from advice that I had earlier seen (not from an authoritative source) which said if you have a runny nose you DONT have it! Who would have thought it - unreliable information from non expert sources.
As it happens I have had a runny nose for about the last month! :-/
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Why has the government plan even mentioned that 80% of the population could be infected with a fatality rate of 1%. They seemed to go on to say this was unlikely but why say it then?
UK Population is 66,440,000 - 80% of that is 53,152,000 and 1% of that is 531,520 - which is a lot of people.
UK Population is 66,440,000 - 80% of that is 53,152,000 and 1% of that is 531,520 - which is a lot of people.
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
Could be both.
Here's a case summary of 2 from the Princess Diamond
COVID-19 in 2 Persons with Mild Upper Respiratory Tract Symptoms on a Cruise Ship, Japan
COVID-19 in Persons with Mild Respiratory Tract Symptoms
Case 1 never even had a fever: a cough, soreness in throat (which lasted day 3 - day 5 only) and rhinorrhea (mucus), well enough to work and probably would have done so had there not been notification of the Hong Kong passenger on board the ship
Thanks sihhi, that’s an interesting read and one thing which jumped out at me was that both had sore throat as a symptom, which I have not seen mentioned anywhere in connection with covid19, perhaps to avoid people jumping to the conclusion that their cold is covid. Instead lots of emphasis on fever, dry cough and weakness. So that’s useful to know. In both those mild cases it seems their symptoms lasted just about a week, if I understood correctly.
I recalled reading something interesting re this a way back In the thread and have managed to find it - however the relevant part (from an article posted by Supine) was highlighted by you
Tbf that was a while ago and I guess there may be new observations made by this point, although that was reported by a Dr in Wuhan, where they obviously had enough significant experience by then anyway.
Yeah, that was probably from the last time I was asking this same question! That’s a good article that Supine shared and I was reading it for maybe the fifth time earlier today. I wonder why sore throat is not mentioned amongst the otherwise quite comprehensive list of symptoms? Perhaps just an error of omission.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
sihhi
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered
Italy has hit 79 deaths, the youngest aged 63, it seems the older deteriorate and die quicker, younger deaths take longer.
The WHO briefing was full-on.
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.
WHO has shipped nearly half a million sets of personal protective equipment to 27 countries, but supplies are rapidly depleting.
WHO estimates that each month, 89 million medical masks will be required for the COVID-19 response; 76 million examination gloves, and 1.6 million goggles.
Can capitalism deliver? Last time something like this was needed was the second world war.
The WHO briefing was full-on.
Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.
WHO has shipped nearly half a million sets of personal protective equipment to 27 countries, but supplies are rapidly depleting.
WHO estimates that each month, 89 million medical masks will be required for the COVID-19 response; 76 million examination gloves, and 1.6 million goggles.
Can capitalism deliver? Last time something like this was needed was the second world war.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
The USA is fucked.
Part-timah
Well-Known Member
Have you got a link to the WHO statement?
Because the govt are trying to get peoples heads round a worse case scenario just in case it transpires.
It also means if we need measures put in we would usually balk at, if they fall short of that then we may find them more palatable.
It's a fine line they are treading. I don't want to credit Boris for this but I have quite a bit of sympathy with his approach (being driven more by advice than politicians)
