Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Winot]

Can't see my mother not going over the road to church today.Hopefully no-one else (except maybe God) will be there so she will be okay.

Am in church now. Numbers about half the normal but mainly parents and their kids have stayed away. The older folk are here (including a 103-year old).

 

[Duncan2]

Am in church now. Numbers about half the normal but mainly parents and their kids have stayed away. The older folk are here (including a 103-year old).

Not sure whether I am reassured or not Winot.Is it okay to be checking social media whilst at prayer these days??

 

[2hats]

Whatever the rights or wrongs of it, asking any section of society to self isolate for four months is a road to failure. Clearly a large proportion are not going to fully comply.

Likely proportional to the additional numbers that die.

 

[hegley]

I think this is one of the really counter-intuitive aspects about this whole thing - in times like these many people want to 'pull together' to support each other but, as you say, that's expressly what we're being told not to do. The usual methods won't work and we need to be a bit creative in how we support each other while still doing what's best for the collective.

Um, any ideas, anyone

(For what it's worth, I also think 4 months isolation is basically impossible, and figure we surely have to come up with something else?)

I just don't understand how they're going to police it tbh. There is no way my mum (77, alzheimers/cancer) is going to self-isolate, even if she remembered that she had to. She goes to the pub every lunchtime for a meal as well which is the vast amount of her calorie intake for the day. She can't (remember how to) cook anymore; and I'm 400 miles away.

 

[skyscraper101]

Has this been done yet? To my layman head he makes a good case, but as with most thing’s I don’t fully understand, I’m suspicious until I’ve heard from someone I trust to understand it better.

 

[weltweit]

I just don't understand how they're going to police it tbh. There is no way my mum (77, alzheimers/cancer) is going to self-isolate, even if she remembered that she had to. She goes to the pub every lunchtime for a meal as well which is the vast amount of her calorie intake for the day. She can't (remember how to) cook anymore; and I'm 400 miles away.

Sorry to read about your mum and that you are so far away, that must be a worry. As I understand it the government may close pubs at some point as they have in France so your mum's lunch arrangements may be disrupted at that point.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Likely proportional to the additional numbers that die.

Possibly, although that also means more pressure on NHS, more people dying from covid 19 because of lack of resources, more dying from other stuff for same reason, so on. Seems behavioural science all the rage at the moment so seems silly to blame people for behaving like people

 

[Lord Camomile]

I just don't understand how they're going to police it tbh. There is no way my mum (77, alzheimers/cancer) is going to self-isolate, even if she remembered that she had to. She goes to the pub every lunchtime for a meal as well which is the vast amount of her calorie intake for the day. She can't (remember how to) cook anymore; and I'm 400 miles away.

That sucks for your mum (and you).

I was wondering if there could be designated 'social quarantine zones' where there were checks before you get in, or something, so people could still socialise in person if they weren't infected.

Instinctively sounds rather dystopian though, and given people can be asymptomatic probably wouldn't work anyway.

 

[elbows]

The virus doesn't care. Age is an independent risk factor.

There seems to be fairly widespread failure to understand this aspect. People are also somewhat misreading the age-related risk and think its only the elderly or the sick who will become seriously ill.

This problem has probably been reinforced because it is typical to use the age and underlying health conditions stuff as some kind of reassuring message for the population as a whole, but now there is an ugly gap between reality and perception and there is likely to be a shift from under to overreaction when the actual picture starts to dawn on people.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Yeah my other half's mum has alzheimers, she's not too bad yet but memory shot obviously, we're telling her to stay in and avoid people and we'll get anything she needs from shops but every time other half calls she is out at supermarket or whatever, either doesn't remember that she shouldn't be going out or says it's a lot of fuss, when it's your time it's your time etc.

Four months is a long time, honestly unworkable imo

 

[elbows]

If we shift to that position then you bloody well should, as the one thing we don't need is more people saturating the collapsing health system who we cannot treat. They will be undischargeable due to how sick they are and will be shedding enormous numbers of viruses which will infect healthcare workers. Time to think collectively I'm afraid.

My mother, who I have shared my thoughts with as the pandemic unfolded, has reacted perfectly to everything, right up until I told her about the self-isolation plan for people aged 70+. The reaction was poor and the denial and 'this isnt practical' set in, so I went straight for the key aspect you mention there. It struck a chord with her and I am now waiting for it to sink in more to see if she comes to terms with the proposed measures.

Hopefully the point resonates more widely, because if my mother is anything to go by, fatalism is the first thing reached for to avoid accepting such measures. And if personal risk messages just result in fatalism, the message about healthcare burden and critical care being overwhelmed encourages thinking about the bigger picture and saving others.

 

[planetgeli]

Not sure whether I am reassured or not Winot.Is it okay to be checking social media whilst at prayer these days??

The (Sur)realGodAlmighty@Twitter

 

[two sheds]

Has this been done yet? To my layman head he makes a good case, but as with most thing’s I don’t fully understand, I’m suspicious until I’ve heard from someone I trust to understand it better.

Only rather than a bottle we've got a thimble (60 million population versus at the moment 120,000 NHS beds plus as many more as they can get minus beds occupied by non-cv illnesses minus doctors and nurses becoming infected). So you must need to control the numbers getting cv or the beds will immediately start getting swamped. Also, I'm not sure that quarantining will immediately stop more people getting cv - there's bound to be a lag.

Why aren't they testing as many people as possible and tracing contacts so at least we know how many are infected? The official map shows Cornwall with 4 confirmed cases - if there are 10,000 unconfirmed in the UK then I just don't believe that figure. A neighbour has just been to the local hospital and said that they're not even coping now before people are being admitted with cv.

 

[Winot]

Is it okay to be checking social media whilst at prayer these days??

We’re a very broad church.

 

[Grace Johnson]

Anti-inflammatories may aggravate Covid-19, France advises

French minister says patients should take paracetamol rather than ibuprofen or cortisone

www.theguardian.com

Wasn't sure where to put this. But research is suggesting ibuprofen and other anti inflammatories aggrevate the inflammation in covid 19 and leads to more severe infection. French health ministry advising not to use at all.

 

[keybored]

Pretty much applies to anything

Not so. Reading the comments on this article (from Airbnb property landlords whining about having to refund guests who won't be able to travel due to Covid-19) warmed my cockles.

Airbnb extends no-charge cancellation policy due to coronavirus | TechCrunch

Because of the current state of the global coronavirus pandemic, Airbnb has announced updates to its policies that provide reservation cancellations

techcrunch.com

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Only rather than a bottle we've got a thimble (60 million population versus at the moment 120,000 NHS beds plus as many more as they can get minus beds occupied by non-cv illnesses minus doctors and nurses becoming infected).

And only around 4k intensive care beds. If the figures out of China and Italy are right, we can expect ~10% of infected people to need intensive care, which if the 70% figure is reasonable is around 5 million people needing ICU treatment at some point over the next few months.

So, the dude with the water is correct, but he should be using a thimble with a pinprick in.

 

[Duncan2]

This problem has probably been reinforced because it is typical to use the age and underlying health conditions stuff as some kind of reassuring message for the population as a whole,

One vexing aspect of the situation is that we now have to be constantly asking ourselves whether the official information is accurate or just what is "expedient" for the general public to be believing at any given moment.

 

[Lord Camomile]

I'm not sure "please, we're desperate, we'll pay anything" is the strongest negotiating strategy, doesn't really fill one with hope about the upcoming trade talks, but I guess that's why he's an MP and I'm not.

 

[Grace Johnson]

One vexing aspect of the situation is that we now have to be constantly asking ourselves whether the official information is accurate or just what is "expedient" for the general public to be believing at any given moment.

Totally. It's adding so much stress to the situation. You can't even trust that they are going to try to do the right thing. We've got to make all these decisions on our own and it's agonizing.

 

[prunus]

Coronavirus: UK over-70s to be asked to self-isolate 'within weeks', Hancock says

Matt Hancock is a dick, I think he’s got the message completely the wrong way wrong here - fucking Tory mentality appealing to people’s self-interest rather than self-sacrifice for the common good which a) I think would get a better response, and b) is surely the fucking point here? Sorry to be coarse but I am getting more and more frustrated with the way they are handling this.

The self-sacrifice bit they should be pushing is simple, I think: For each X people over 70 infected Y will need hospital treatment. For the same X under 40s say, the number will be Y/4 (very roughly, don’t quote me, but it’s something like that). That means for each over 70 that stays away from the risk of infection, 4 under 40s can be out and about without swamping the hospital system.

Why should these lucky under 40s get to be out and about? I want to go to the pub, coffee with my friends, it’s not fair?

Because we need people out there to eg keep logistics for food and fuel going, keep power stations and schools running (as appropriate), and oh I don’t know run the ducking healthcare system? Ie keep the country functioning.

That’s the argument that I think people will respond to (put slightly more tactfully perhaps).

 

[two sheds]

I'm not sure "please, we're desperate, we'll pay anything" is the strongest negotiating strategy, doesn't really fill one with hope about the upcoming trade talks, but I guess that's why he's an MP and I'm not.

We really need Grayling in charge here, with his wide experience of Brexit ferry negotiations he'd be giving £85 million to companies that don't actually have ventilators, just in case.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'm not sure "please, we're desperate, we'll pay anything" is the strongest negotiating strategy, doesn't really fill one with hope about the upcoming trade talks, but I guess that's why he's an MP and I'm not.

He's not saying "we'll pay anything", he's saying "no number [of ventilators] is too high," the whole piece is about needing as many as possible.

 

[maomao]

He's not saying "we'll pay anything", he's saying "no number [of ventilators] is too high," the whole piece is about needing as many as possible.

He's still a cock though.

 

[Shechemite]

Can the public do anything to help support NHS (and social care) workers?

 

[Lord Camomile]

He's not saying "we'll pay anything", he's saying "no number [of ventilators] is too high," the whole piece is about needing as many as possible.

Hmm...
Yeah, alright.

He's still a cock though.

That

And still wouldn't be in such a position if the NHS hadn't been criminally underfunded for the past decade. Would probably still need to supplement what they had, but not to the same degree.

 

[two sheds]

And only around 4k intensive care beds. If the figures out of China and Italy are right, we can expect ~10% of infected people to need intensive care, which if the 70% figure is reasonable is around 5 million people needing ICU treatment at some point over the next few months.

So, the dude with the water is correct, but he should be using a thimble with a pinprick in.

Same applies to those graphs of peak cases against health service capacity like the ones shown down the page on the left here.

Coronavirus: How Johnson’s plan shifted as virus wreaked havoc

The strategy set out by the prime minister and his advisers came under strain as the scale of the crisis became clear

www.theguardian.com

The line showing health service capacity is drawn at around half the maximum possible peak value whereas it's fucking miniscule when compared to the 60 million population who can all potentially catch it. They need to control the number of new cases as much as possible, not just let people catch it and see whether the NHS is swamped.

 

[elbows]

Same applies to those graphs of peak cases against health service capacity like the ones shown down the page on the left here.

I note that this piece was a more nuanced attempt to justify the governments stance than the likes of the BBC managed on Friday.

I remain thoroughly unconvinced.

 

[2hats]

Has this been done yet? To my layman head he makes a good case, but as with most thing’s I don’t fully understand, I’m suspicious until I’ve heard from someone I trust to understand it better.

Nice illustration but I suspect that due to the 2-3 week delay on the cases coming down the line (ie are infected but asymptomatic/low grade and busy shedding the virus for others) I think that window is fast closing so they need to act soon - which appears to be the call Spain, Austria, etc have just made.

e2a: also made worse as COVID19 (unlike other major respiratory infections) appears to involve extensive viral shedding in the pre-symptomatic phase.

 

[elbows]

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire | William Hanage

Vulnerable people should not be exposed to Covid-19 right now in the service of a hypothetical future, says William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard

www.theguardian.com

When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real.