China are nearly ready.
Just wanted to alert Urban to this massive impending problem.
Just wanted to alert Urban to this massive impending problem.
China is going to invade Taiwan in 2027
- Thread starter minorcelebrity
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
why are they delaying the op from next year?
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
China’s military is not quite ready yet.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
The problem with 27 is the Americans will be ready then
No, but I think Biden is likely to react more aggressively than Trump. I might be wrong though, as Trump is difficult to predict.
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
At least now the Taiwanese know the date they can relax for a bit and focus on making semiconductors.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
You too, huh? I thought a toenail trim might be about due then, too...
The world relies on Taiwan for semiconductors. So many industries rely on them, from automotive to iPhone. There is likely to be substantial disruption.
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
You should probably warn the Americans about that, too.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Won't the bosses just buy them rebranded ?
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Seems legit.
Oh mighty oracle minorcelebrity how are the PLA going to overcome their deficit in sufficient sea lift capacity?, Is that next year? When does their counter conventional missile system come sufficiently on line to prevent a huge chunk of their Eastern seaboard (the bit where all the money is) getting flattered and how have they solved the problem of securing TSMC as a going concern to prevent the huge damage to their own manufacturing base if it was gone?
Oh mighty oracle minorcelebrity how are the PLA going to overcome their deficit in sufficient sea lift capacity?, Is that next year? When does their counter conventional missile system come sufficiently on line to prevent a huge chunk of their Eastern seaboard (the bit where all the money is) getting flattered and how have they solved the problem of securing TSMC as a going concern to prevent the huge damage to their own manufacturing base if it was gone?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Oh ffs go back and search along the lines of trump China policy.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
that made slightly more sense when i realised you did not mean the port of london authority...
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
A bloke from the PLA Signint unit on Hainan called; he said you can fuck off an all.
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
Surely not even the PLA were planning to cross the strait on tanks?
JimW
支那暗杀团
Just the example that enemies don't just fall over even with overwhelming force.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
National service in Taiwan had gone down to three and a bit months of basically national building for young mien via a bit of tactical camping. It's going back up to a year very soon and many of the current intake are building training facilities with the help of American contractors to enable training in the lessons learned from Ukraine to be applied.
Ms A320 is in Taipei for a few years, her boyfriend just finished his four month stint. Basically if the PLA do turn up his unit's role is to sit on a beach and try to delay them for 10/15 minutes until the Taiwanese Apaches show up. This is both hilarious and not hilarious in fairly equal measure. He spent most of his time post the basic training eight weeks (!) acting as an interpreter for Americans...
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
The footage of the Chinese airman/engineer heading for the US spyplane during the Hainan Island Incident was amusing. I was actually living in Beijing and working for the Chinese state media at the time, and it was a huge propaganda coup.
I also couldn't help thinking back then that RAF aircrew would've ditched an advanced aeroplane rather than let the technology fall into the hands of the Chinese.
Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Reckon they'd just have raised it anyway tho god knows what state the electrics would have been in afterThe footage of the Chinese airman/engineer heading for the US spyplane during the Hainan Island Incident was amusing. I was actually living in Beijing and working for the Chinese state media at the time, and it was a huge propaganda coup.
I also couldn't help thinking back then that RAF aircrew would've ditched an advanced aeroplane rather than let the technology fall into the hands of the Chinese.
Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
The crew probably fancied a couple of weeks on the beaches of Sanya...The footage of the Chinese airman/engineer heading for the US spyplane during the Hainan Island Incident was amusing. I was actually living in Beijing and working for the Chinese state media at the time, and it was a huge propaganda coup.
I also couldn't help thinking back then that RAF aircrew would've ditched an advanced aeroplane rather than let the technology fall into the hands of the Chinese.
Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia
AnnO'Neemus
Is so vanilla
Must admit, since I left Beijing and moved back to the UK, I haven't really kept up to date with China-Taiwan tensions or HK-mainland shenanigans or kept up in any great detail with wider Asia-Pacific region politics.
With that caveat in mind, I reckon not just the Russian invasion of Ukraine but more importantly the more recent (non-)reaction to Israel's attacks on Gaza, with the global superpowers basically turning a blind eye to genocide, war crimes and a possible huge land grab, will have had the effect of emboldening the Chinese authorities in terms of any plans they might have to physically annexe Taiwan.
Lesson learned from Russia v Ukraine is that while US and other Western allies might provide financial/military aid, and they might provide advisors, they're not going to wade in and commit any ground troops, and any air or sea support will be on the periphery.
So in the event China invades Taiwan... so what? What are the US, UN, UK, etc going to do? Again, while they might provide financial and military aid and advisors, they're not going to commit any ground troops, they're not going to risk destabilising the region any further, bearing in mind US military presence in South Korea.
North Korea (allied with PRC) and the Korean peninsula is a can of worms that they won't want to open.
So there will be lots of condemnation of China, but in practical terms? What? Sanctions? They will kill the US automotive industry stone dead. Ditto lots of parts of the tech sector for which China and/or Taiwan are the major sources of components.
Think back to how much chaos was caused when the Suez Canal was temporarily blocked by that container ship. Or delayed deliveries when shipping had to be rerouted round the Horn of Africa due to an upsurge in incidents of piracy.
Given how many industries rely on 'just in time' supply chains, any sanctions or other disruptions due to military activity will have a disastrous knock-on effect on the global economy.
Ultimately, the global superpowers won't care very much about Taiwan or its people, they will care about the impact on their own economies and their own companies and population.
With that caveat in mind, I reckon not just the Russian invasion of Ukraine but more importantly the more recent (non-)reaction to Israel's attacks on Gaza, with the global superpowers basically turning a blind eye to genocide, war crimes and a possible huge land grab, will have had the effect of emboldening the Chinese authorities in terms of any plans they might have to physically annexe Taiwan.
Lesson learned from Russia v Ukraine is that while US and other Western allies might provide financial/military aid, and they might provide advisors, they're not going to wade in and commit any ground troops, and any air or sea support will be on the periphery.
So in the event China invades Taiwan... so what? What are the US, UN, UK, etc going to do? Again, while they might provide financial and military aid and advisors, they're not going to commit any ground troops, they're not going to risk destabilising the region any further, bearing in mind US military presence in South Korea.
North Korea (allied with PRC) and the Korean peninsula is a can of worms that they won't want to open.
So there will be lots of condemnation of China, but in practical terms? What? Sanctions? They will kill the US automotive industry stone dead. Ditto lots of parts of the tech sector for which China and/or Taiwan are the major sources of components.
Think back to how much chaos was caused when the Suez Canal was temporarily blocked by that container ship. Or delayed deliveries when shipping had to be rerouted round the Horn of Africa due to an upsurge in incidents of piracy.
Given how many industries rely on 'just in time' supply chains, any sanctions or other disruptions due to military activity will have a disastrous knock-on effect on the global economy.
Ultimately, the global superpowers won't care very much about Taiwan or its people, they will care about the impact on their own economies and their own companies and population.
JimW
支那暗杀团
Think it's the reverse, US is geared up to a full-on response and it's the Chinese economy that's vulnerable to loss of export markets and various strategic imports. There is a conscious strategy to overcome those economic restraints but they're a way off yet.
petee
no gods, no malarkey
yyyyup
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Well, I am not waiting any longer, I am off for a walk up to the pub for a couple of pints, may as well enjoy the last hour or so, before the nuclear attack hits us.
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