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Bernie is running

J Ed said:
According to 'impartial', 'objective' data driven people like Nate Silver, let alone the pundits, he would never win New Hampshire then he wouldn't win anywhere else after that. The fact his campaign has gotten as far as it has is just astonishing.
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538 had NH as a slam dunk for Bernie iirc. I love 538, sometimes the predictions based on the data, are wrong, those are the most useful predictions of all, retrospectively. The best thing to be able to do is to predict the unpredictable. Figuring out why things went wrong is much more useful than knowing why you keep being right every other time.

I'm thinking Bernie loses by 3-5 points, the media rip Hillary for underperforming, and a robotic "victory speech" and he goes on to win.

ETA: It's taken me so long to accept that Bernie has a shot at this thing.
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
Piss in the wind. It would be pretty silly of them to trash the world economy over something that would likely get thrown out of court, and even if it went ahead, would be in litigation for years. And then, even if a judgement was obtained, how are they gonna collect?
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At the very least, "the 28 pages" should be declassified.
 
stupid kid said:
538 had NH as a slam dunk for Bernie iirc. I love 538, sometimes the predictions based on the data, are wrong, those are the most useful predictions of all, retrospectively. The best thing to be able to do is to predict the unpredictable. Figuring out why things went wrong is much more useful than knowing why you keep being right every other time.

I'm thinking Bernie loses by 3-5 points, the media rip Hillary for underperforming, and a robotic "victory speech" and he goes on to win.

ETA: It's taken me so long to accept that Bernie has a shot at this thing.
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Who’s Winning Iowa And New Hampshire?

New Hampshire Democrats. Here, there’s a split between the models. Sanders is a 73 percent favorite according to polls-only, while polls-plus — noting Clinton’s advantage in endorsements and that she’s favored in Iowa — gives Clinton the slightest edge, with a 53 percent chance to Sanders’s 47 percent. Essentially, she’d be following the path that Al Gore took over Bill Bradley in 2000, when an Iowa victory propelled him to a narrow victory in the Granite State. But the polls-plus model is designed to lower the effect of the endorsements variable to zero by election day in each state. So if Clinton keeps falling in New Hampshire and Iowa polls instead of rising, the establishment may not be able to bail her out, and she’ll have to contemplate the possibility of being swept in both states.
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Rutita1 said:
Hilary claimed to carry hotsauce in her bag... I want to spike her food with naga chillis for that downright lie :facepalm:

Grrrrrrrrrrrrr.
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It seems to be true. She does like hot sauce:

Clinton’s official affection for hot sauce dates back decades. In 2008, shetold 60 Minutes her habit of regularly eating chilies to stay healthy goes back to 1992. At the White House in the 1990s, Clinton boasted a collection of more than 100 hot sauces, according to a December report by the Associated Press. In Monday’s radio interview, Clinton reiterated that her love of hot sauce is partly to do with its health benefits.

“No seriously, hot sauce. I’ve been eating a lot of hot sauce. Raw peppers and hot sauce,” she said. “Because I think it keeps my immune system strong. I think hot sauce is good for you, in moderation.”
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Here's What Hot Sauce Hillary Clinton Keeps in Her Bag

I was more annoyed by what followed the hot sauce comment. When she was accused of "pandering to the black vote", she leaned in with a smirk and said "Is it working?"
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
When she was accused of "pandering to the black vote", she leaned in with a smirk and said "Is it working?"
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Well exactly... I DON'T fucking believe her, not one fucking bit!

In moderation? in her bag?..Fuck off Hilary...of all the fucking things you carry in your bag...you just happen to mention this. CHUMP.

'Is it working?'

'Oh yes Hilary...we just love that you love the hot sauce, you'll get our vote.'

What the fuck did she expect them to say? :facepalm:
 
Rutita1 said:
Well exactly... I DON'T fucking believe her, not one fucking bit!

In moderation? in her bag?..Fuck off Hilary...of all the fucking things you carry in your bag...you just happen to mention this. CHUMP.

'Is it working?'

'Oh yes Hilary...we just love that you love the hot sauce, you'll get our vote.'

What the fuck did she expect them to say? :facepalm:
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That explanation only makes sense if the interviewer gave the Clinton campaign their questions in advance. In that case, it was the journalists who allow themselves to be manipulated.

Pandering is what politicians do. I worry about the more subtle form of pandering such as pretending to be more or less liberal, depending on who you're speaking to than this. The ones who have pandered the most have been the highest in the polls. Trumps entire campaign is nothing but pandering. If we buy it, I can't blame them for selling it.
 
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Well I ain't buying it. :confused: You think she couldn't have known what was a topical Black vote thing to say without them telling her they were gonna ask that? Advisers get paid ridiculous money for this shit...regardless so what if they did tell her about the questions though, the fact she chose that as a answer and as you pointed out the smug 'is it working? fucks me off...for abundant reasons that I don't care for her enough to list here. I am sick of this cartoon masquerading as life and maturity twaddle.

I am no fan of journalists and their ways but giving politicians a hall pass because they are just playing the game is a ride to nothing meaningful, as we know.
 
That's not the first story I've read in which someone's party affiliation has been changed with a bogus signature. What the fuck is happening?
 
...In order to catch up and just squeeze ahead he'll need to win 70% of the votes in all states up to and including 17th May... To pull ahead he needs to do just as well on 7th June... A daunting prospect*...


*Doesn't include superdelegates
 
So it looks like the Hillary campaign has been running a Kremlin-esque campaign of paying supporters to attack Sanders during the primary and intends to continue it into the general election

 
J Ed said:
So it looks like the Hillary campaign has been running a Kremlin-esque campaign of paying supporters to attack Sanders during the primary and intends to continue it into the general election

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I do like "the task force staff's backgrounds are as diverse as the community they will be engaging with and include former reporters, bloggers, public affairs specialists, designers, Ready for Hillary alumni, and Hillary super fans who have lead groups similar to those with which the task force will organize". Perhaps the term "commentariat" hasn't made it across the pond yet?
 
Honestly this does not come as a huge shock to me, with some regularity on ele bction days during the primary huge numbers of very new accounts have flooded the Sanders subreddit pushing one or two negative messages about the Sanders campaign in an effort either to smear Sanders or demotivate the campaign. There is also a remarkable amount of near-identical messaging amongst prominent pro-HRC 'journalists' and people with large twitter followings and this messaging often does not really make a lot of sense in the context of their previous output.

The best example is multiple people who have spent months insulting Bernie Sanders, his supporters and politics suddenly deciding that they think Sanders' politics are great and necessary but unfortunately too tainted by sexism/racism/toxic masculinity/whatever to be possible to pursue.
 
The window for challenging social structures via social media is closing, the Lizards are getting wise to this game and will make it work to their interests with increasing slickness. Crowd out or distract.
 
Dogsauce said:
The window for challenging social structures via social media is closing, the Lizards are getting wise to this game and will make it work to their interests with increasing slickness. Crowd out or distract.
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I think there's some truth in this (lizards aside). I think they'll realise they ('progressive' types, activists, etc) will realise they have to move back offline again. They can take a hint from BLM and the way they use social media and a strong presence during things like Ferguson to make connections and keep the pressure on. It's going to have to be a fight everywhere, not just online, not just offline. Pressure on at all times everywhere.
 
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