Barking: Greens splitting anti-BNP vote

[free spirit]

When I refer to "the vote" - I mean the people who are likely to vote for parties other than the BNP.

Of course there are huge numbers who aren't likely to vote at all. If the Greens (or anyone else) could credibly claim to swell the numbers of people who would vote for parties other than the BNP then they would face a legitmate tactical question about whether to stand. But if they are redistributing the existing "vote" away from those parties in a position to defeat the BNP they are only helping Griffin.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this, and it's a very small sample, but on googling about second preference votes for green party I came across a st***front thread from the london mayoral elections asking who'd get BNP voters second preference votes. 2 out of 11 said green, 1 other defended their choice, and those asking why seemed genuinely interested.

could be more potential for the green party to split the BNP vote by providing a different non-mainstream alternative than you're giving credit for.

They'd also presumably be standing someone local which could give them another angle to attack Nick 'I live in Wales and am MEP for North West England' Griffin on.

 

[butchersapron]

...anyone know what the two wards UAF went to are?

 

[articul8]

.
could be more potential for the green party to split the BNP vote by providing a different non-mainstream alternative than you're giving credit for.

I really don't think that the Greens are well placed to do this. I hope they prove me wrong. I doubt they will.

 

[joevsimp]

I really don't think that the Greens are well placed to do this. I hope they prove me wrong. I doubt they will.

not in areas like Goresbrook, but, looking at the ward-level data from the london assembly election, we did alright in parts of Barking and Dagenham, came closest to beating the BNP in Chadwell Heath and Whalebone (in the northern pointy bit of the borough)

also did fairly well in parts of Newham and Tower Hamlets, and some really good results in southern Redbridge and Waltham Forest

 

[Jon-of-arc]

They are standing a candidate

http://www.socialistunity.com/?p=5249

fuck off - surely?

 

[butchersapron]

What?

I tell you what's more likely than 500 london greens voting labour, 500+ labour voters fucking off in disgust at labour , another 500+ voting BNP in disgust at labour , another 500+ voting for the best placed independent and so on

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

The reality is that Green Party has little appeal to the BNP inclined demographic.

On the surface, but you'd be suprised how many people on the doorstep say they'd vote Green or BNP. I reckon There ought to be an non fascist anti establishment candidate where there is a fascist.

 

[JimPage]

exactly, why not fight in somewhere like Peckham against Harriet Harman.

Peckham is not a seat they will stand in, but there are other safe Labour seats in London where they are standing where by voting Socialist you are unlikely to let the tories in where they are defiantley standing (Feltham and Heston, Mitcham and Morden, Holburn and St Pancras South, Croydon North etc)

As it goes, most of the seats they will stand in London will be in tory seats where there is no excuse for the left not to stand

 

[butchersapron]

On the surface, but you'd be suprised how many people on the doorstep say they'd vote Green or BNP. I reckon There ought to be an non fascist anti establishment candidate where there is a fascist.

Not calling for a labour vote in barking then taffboy?

 

[articul8]

What?

I tell you what's more likely than 500 london greens voting labour, 500+ labour voters fucking off in disgust at labour , another 500+ voting BNP in disgust at labour , another 500+ voting for the best placed independent and so on

That might well be the case - but would the Green standing make it more or less likely that Griffin can win? I wouldv'e thought that 80%+ of people who would think of voting Green would be prepared to back Labour against the BNP.

 

[free spirit]

That might well be the case - but would the Green standing make it more or less likely that Griffin can win? I wouldv'e thought that 80%+ of people who would think of voting Green would be prepared to back Labour against the BNP.

Then what?

do the people of barking and dagenham then only get the choice of Labour, Lib Dem, Tory or BNP from now until the end of time, and to stop the BNP getting in everyone who's not a facist must always vote for the fucking labour party?

Looking at the election results in that area, it's clear that the local green party has put a lot of effort in over at least the last decade to build up their level of support locally to the point where they were actually above the lib dems in the 2005 council elections, level with UKIP in the 2008 mayoral elections and 2005 parliamentary elections, not far off the Lib Dems in the 2009 European Elections, and somewhere between 3-10 times higher than all the various socialist parties combined votes in any of these elections.

It's all well and good for socialist parties who've got virtually no electoral presence in the area, to announce that they're going to stand aside to present a united anti-facist vote, but at the last general election the only non green left wing party standing was the workers revolutionary party who got a grand total of 59 votes.

To put it bluntly, IMO those (non green party left wingers) criticising the local green party for standing can fuck right off, as it's clear that they've been doing absolutely nothing in that area over the last decade to present a credible left wing alternative that people could have turned to instead of the BNP, and standing aside in favour of a hated labour government is complete short sighted counter productive bollocks.

The green left lot are entitled to their opinions, but really ought to consider the possibility that the local activists on the ground know what's best for their area in both the short nd long term, and should stop carping from the sidelines and support them because they are the actual front line against the BNP in that area not a bunch of swappies parachuting in for a one off headline grabbing vote war mongering new labour scum leaflet drop.

IMHO

 

[Buzz sw9]

This is great news! Margaret Hodge is crap so anyone will be better

Now don't you just wish you had taken your mothers advice when she told you to "eat your greens"

 

[JimPage]

To put it bluntly, IMO those (non green party left wingers) criticising the local green party for standing can fuck right off, as it's clear that they've been doing absolutely nothing in that area over the last decade to present a credible left wing alternative that people could have turned to instead of the BNP, and standing aside in favour of a hated labour government is complete short sighted counter productive bollocks.

There is one thing I agree with- at least the Greens, for right or wrong, have organised and put themselves up for election. The left had the same opportunity to do this.

I would be more worried about the other seats in London and elsewhere that the BNP will probably get no opposition from any progressive, left of Labour party candidate.

 

[articul8]

Looking at the election results in that area, it's clear that the local green party has put a lot of effort in over at least the last decade to build up their level of support locally

Their support has remained pretty static - 618 votes in 2005, 678 votes in the Mayorals in 08, approx 600-700 in the Euros in 09 (1,350 across Barking and Dagenham) all at a time when Labour's vote is falling.
*voters leaving Labour are not going to the Greens* (or to LDs, UKIP, socialist parties or other fringe parties). They are mostly either stopping at home or voting BNP.

[edit to add] I've been confusing Free Spirit with Sacred Spirit so far on this thread - and been confused by how lucid they are being!!

 

[butchersapron]

Precisely why supporting labour is a fuck up - on both the general front and on the level of stopping the BNP! You'll increase the BNP vote.

 

[articul8]

Pissed off but apathetic ex-Labour could be converted to BNP voters by a ham-fisted campaign for Labour votes. Yes I can see that *could*, and might indeed, happen.

I don't think it's inevitable though. Depends whether the local Labour party is totally and absolutely fucked (it may well be) - or whether it can run a Cruddas style appeal to old school Labour values. BNP have recognised that Hodge is a liablity for Labour to get its act together.

Sorry to say, but Labour is the only game in town for beating Griffin locally, this time. There's no other way it can be done.
Which I accept raises very serious questions for anti-fascists in terms of how an effective targeted campaign there relates to a more effective long term strategy.

 

[butchersapron]

You're wavering - i can sense it

 

[butchersapron]

Their support has remained pretty static - 618 votes in 2005, 678 votes in the Mayorals in 08, approx 600-700 in the Euros in 09 (1,350 across Barking and Dagenham) all at a time when Labour's vote is falling.

These figures show why the BNP will not win the seat as well.

 

[articul8]

You're wavering - i can sense it

"Vote Hodge" is hardly a position I'm comfortable taking. But I'm not convinced there is any option in Barking

 

[butchersapron]

There is - don't vote labour. Don't vote BNP.

 

[Sgt Howie]

On the surface, but you'd be suprised how many people on the doorstep say they'd vote Green or BNP. I reckon There ought to be an non fascist anti establishment candidate where there is a fascist.

I suppose to 9/11 nutters it's a toss-up between the two of them.

 

[articul8]

wouldn't the BNP be most likely to win on the basis of a low turnout election? How many BNP symps are you likely to demobilise with a slogan like that. It's far more likely to eat into the soft Labour vote and help Griffin.

 

[butchersapron]

What slogan i come out with is irrelevant -let's get that clear - some movement locally will not be based around this single election, so this position works for that longer term effort. I don;t see why a non-labour group opposed to the BNP and labour but concerned with the social issues that drive a BNP vote won't take votes off the BNP -and if they take votes off labour too, all the better. That's the point.

 

[butchersapron]

wouldn't the BNP be most likely to win on the basis of a low turnout election? How many BNP symps are you likely to demobilise with a slogan like that. It's far more likely to eat into the soft Labour vote and help Griffin.

A low turnout will be best for them yes - it won't be a low turnout.

 

[TremulousTetra]

I don't see the problem with some variation on "vote for the crook, not the fascist". Are British people really too stupid to understand "vote for the crook, not the fascist"? I think not. This allows the lefty to attack the fash and NuLab, whilst playing for the draw. A win is great. A draw is what we have. A lose to the fash is shit. 99% of the time things are more complicated than either or, fascism or socialism.

On topic, from the 'evidense' on here, seems OK for Greens to stand.

 

[butchersapron]

No, british people are not too thick to understand a shit slogan imposed on them. They're far too clever in fact.

 

[free spirit]

Their support has remained pretty static - 618 votes in 2005, 678 votes in the Mayorals in 08, approx 600-700 in the Euros in 09 (1,350 across Barking and Dagenham) all at a time when Labour's vote is falling.
*voters leaving Labour are not going to the Greens* (or to LDs, UKIP, socialist parties or other fringe parties). They are mostly either stopping at home or voting BNP.

it's difficult to compare the results of the different election types, but in percentage terms they got 2.57% at the last general election in 2005 (Barking only) and 3.77% at the Europeans in 2009. They also got 3300 2nd preference votes in the mayoral elections, which IMO gives a good indication of the potential they have to grow in the area.

There's also the additional consideration of maintaining and building the Green Party presence in the area in order to keep the vote up for the next European elections where the Green Party actually have an elected member for London, and are only 2000 ahead of UKIP in 4th place. Stop campaigning in constituencies at general elections and they may as well kiss goodbye to that 4th place, and who knows what the BNP vote could be like in 4 years time, it could be a 3 way scrap for the last 2 places.

[edit to add] I've been confusing Free Spirit with Sacred Spirit so far on this thread - and been confused by how lucid they are being!!

no idea who Sacred Spirit is, but grrr and erm thanks I think.

 

[sabatical]

One question.

If by any chance 'Griffin won', would he have to give up his Euro seat, or can he sit in both Parliments at the same time ?

 

[free spirit]

One question.

If by any chance 'Griffin won', would he have to give up his Euro seat, or can he sit in both Parliments at the same time ?

I wondered that.

 

[articul8]

Sacred Spirit was a total loon that got banned in the end I think - I thought they must have got the medication right

You make fair points - but as you say it's hard to translate evidence from PR elections back into a FPTP context. I'm not sure that 3,300 2nd prefs is particularly impressive given that "Green" is a comfortable 2nd choice for Labour, Lib and even Cameronite Tory voters.

I take the point about the broader logic of standing candidates to sustain a base for PR elections. These kind of tactical questions are the result of fucking awful electoral system. I don't know why the left is so quiet about this.