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And next, Syria?

I wonder if there is now credible evidence of the Syrian army turning in on itself.

There have been continuous reports of heavy fighting in Deraa for days now with bodies rotting in the streets.

There's hardly any evidence that the civilian population has taken up arms - so who's doing the fighting?
 
Divisive Cotton said:
I wonder if there is now credible evidence of the Syrian army turning in on itself.

There have been continuous reports of heavy fighting in Deraa for days now with bodies rotting in the streets.

There's hardly any evidence that the civilian population has taken up arms - so who's doing the fighting?
Click to expand...

From Al Jaz

“Deraa is completely surrounded by tanks and armed troops. There are snipers on the roofs of government buildings and tall buildings. They are hiding behind water tanks and some are even hiding in the minarets of mosques.”

The source said not all members of the Fifth Division had defected, but those who had were attempting to protect civilians against attacks on them by the Fourth Division, led by Assad’s brother, Maher al-Assad.

“Those who have defected are fighting on behalf of the people, helping them with information on the army’s movements and trying to protect civilians from attacks,” he said.

The witness said he had witnessed the defection yesterday of some 20 soldiers of the Fifth Division who abandoned their unit and ran towards civilian houses. “I saw two soldiers gunned down and killed,” he said.

Some local farmers were preparing to arm themselves with hunting rifles they customarily keep at home to shoot birds and wild animals, but the source said he had seen no evidence of an organised armed group of locals fighting against the military.
Click to expand...
 
A few days ago I thought the worse about the situation in Syria but today there were protests in 50 different towns and villagers. Most importantly, they were all over the country and not just in one area
 
Divisive Cotton said:
A few days ago I thought the worse about the situation in Syria but today there were protests in 50 different towns and villagers. Most importantly, they were all over the country and not just in one area
Click to expand...

Yes but they don't seem to have reached the kind of critical mass that Egypt achieved. By that I mean demonstrations in the hundreds of thousands all across the country. Not saying they won't but until they do we can expect the regime to retain the ability able to hit back. Deraa sounds like a nightmare and a repeat of Hama is not impossible. No food, no electricity, no water, snipers shooting anyone on the streets. Today lots of those killed were people trying to break the siege of the town. If there was ever a time for the people of Syria to rise up in their hundreds and thousands it is now.
 
bloody hard decision to make for all the bluster of activists in this country its not life and death in this country even at the height of the troubles in NI you were more likely to be killed in uniform or randomly than taking on the state.
the syrian state does'nt give a shit using belt fed weaponary against protestors you've got to be a real barstard :(
stone thowers might mix it against the odd live round once you start laying down fire its simlpy murder and you have to know it:(
 
LOL. How many of you are left in these threads - all emotionally invested beyond sense - talking among yourselves and posting 'heart-rendering' imagery. Cringe-tastic.

Anyone wanting to talk rationally about relevant issues has long since gone elsewhere, usually a long way elsewhere.
 
Great post L_C, well up to your usual standards.

There's an interesting article here - few main points. Two dynamics at work currently - opposition attempting to 'seduce' the middle class to their side as part of economic struggle, and concurrent militarisation of wider struggle (led by muslim brotherhood, Saudi dosh and lack of any other options). Together the conditions for civil war, or at the very least, long protracted struggle potentially now in place. Within the coalition a split between progressives and fundies -article suggests similarities with opposition conflicts 78-79 in Iran. International implications - Syria in chaos v good for the usual suspects, counter-balances 'loss' of Egypt.
 
That is a seriously interesting article, some serious depth there.

Was going to post this 'un from the guardian which is interesting and focuses upon Israel and the Tehran-Damascus-Hezbullah bizniz, although it doesn't quite have the depth of that asia times analysis goes into, on loads of other areas.

Pepe Escobar's books sound interesting too, might have to check 'em out...
 
Another big day today after Friday prayers. Expect another grim day of bloodshed. The problem as I see it is that there aren't the massive numbers to really shift things yet and as such the regime is still pretty much intact and in control. So more demonstrations and more vicious repression. There is an ethnic and sectarian division here too with the ruling elite and much of the professional elements of the military coming from the Shia Alawite sect. It is almost like a reversal of Bahrain with a majority Sunni population ruled by a Shia ruling class. So as I see it there is little incentive for much of the most efficient elements within the army to side with demonstrators. There is the conscript section of the army of course which is Sunni and I guess they could split and then of course the recipe is civil war.
 
Divisive Cotton said:
Notes from the Damascus underground: http://damascusgaygirl.blogspot.com/
Click to expand...

That's a great blog for getting a basic understanding of Syrian society. I was struck by her description of the Alawi

The Alawi, though, are perhaps the largest and possibly the oddest of Syria’s minorities. Many people debate whether their religion should really be counted as being Shia, let alone Muslim, as it deviates from other Islamic groups in many ways: they see Ali as an incarnation of the diety, believe in reincarnation, deny that women have souls, teach that the stars are incarnated believers, and other oddities. They don’t follow Islamic dietary and drinking rules and don’t fast during Ramadan though they do ceebrate Christmas. Unfortunately, they also teach that followers should always deny their religion so it is very difficult to learn what they actually believe. Alawi women are, according to their belief, not to be instructed at all in religion as they lack souls. (Oddly, Usama Bin Laden’s mother was a Syrian Alawi).
Click to expand...
 
Latest reports:

2.54pm: Our correspondent in Damascus emails:

Wissam Tarif told the Guardian at 4pm (2pm BST) that he has counted protests in 68 towns and villages so far today. He says at this time last week they had 43. But he says this week's protests have not been in central areas.

"The security divided up the cities and prevented people gathering in central areas, so most people - spontaneously - protested in their neighbourhoods," he said, pointing to two separate protests in al-Tel as an example.

He says eyewitnesses have told him that snipers are on rooftops in several towns and that live ammunition has been used in al-Tel and Hajr al-Aswad, both close to Damascus. He says he is unable to get information from the outskirts of Homs, although tanks are confirmed as inside the city.

So far Tarif's organisation Insan has not confirmed any deaths, but has reports of four people being treated in the private Cham hospital in Damascus. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is counting five killed in Homs.
Click to expand...
 
likesfish said:
bloody hard decision to make for all the bluster of activists in this country its not life and death in this country even at the height of the troubles in NI you were more likely to be killed in uniform or randomly than taking on the state.
the syrian state does'nt give a shit using belt fed weaponary against protestors you've got to be a real barstard :(
stone thowers might mix it against the odd live round once you start laying down fire its simlpy murder and you have to know it:(
Click to expand...
Yea, we can go to a march or demo & protest something & there's no danger at all. These people protest month after month even though they keep getting shot down. I don't know how they do it. A visit there in '96 saw how ironclad the grip on power is. The little tyrant's papa was in power.....big brother cult of personality dictatorship like I've never seen. You can feel the repression just walking around. It does seem that Assad's grip is being loosened now & will never be the same again.
 
Whilst it's a big challenge to the regime it doesn't seem to have the critical mass behind it that can overwhelm the security forces and start causing enough internal divisions that the Assad clan will start to fold. Those people are fucking brave though, the best of luck to them. Turning up once a week after Friday prayers is not enough though IMO, and the army/militia seem too powerful and well armed for violent struggle to be that effective (at the moment anyway).

Rumblings on the media about this becoming quite sectarian though, due to the Assads and cronies being from a minority Shia group. Possibly why the Islamic Republic next door seems keen on keeping them afloat?
 
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