Afghanistan: Mission Accomplished

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Regarding Raab’s dereliction of duty,

Among those defending Mr Raab was Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who said his cabinet colleague was "one of the most professional and most effective ministers I've ever worked with".

He’s telling the truth here.

 

[teqniq]

Jeez. Fucking awful

 

[teqniq]

Very resourceful, little or no help from the Foreign office for British nationals with Afghan wives:

British veteran makes his own way home after fleeing Kabul jail

 

[TopCat]

How did the US clear the airfield of people? No reports of what happened but how did they do it? It may well be relevant now.

 

[LDC]

Very resourceful, little or no help from the Foreign office for British nationals with Afghan wives:

British veteran makes his own way home after fleeing Kabul jail

'Ian Cameron, 55, a former military policeman living in Kabul, was accused of trading illegally in liquor and arrested in March.'

Least popular to most popular job ever.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think Biden saying the ANA let us down and weren't reliable is the wrong way around. In any case the mission is now to (almost by whatever means) get our people and their families out. Given the obscene amounts they like to donate to the arms industry, even if it takes a fuck-ton of bribery, get as many out as possible. Drive a hard bargain sure, but then I don't even know what the terms of Trump's deal, ratified seemingly by Biden are. You've got this massive intelligence, and massive special forces budget. It's time to justify it. It's practically a hostage situation.

Information about the deal has been posted on the thread, see eg post 830 Afghanistan: Mission Accomplished - the link describes the deal and brogdale also links to the text

 

[Kaka Tim]

An utter waste of life, resources and money whose eventual outcome was entirely predictable from the start. Smashed Al Queda's on the ground organisation - but gave birth to myriad other jihadi groups and fuelled their whole ideology. Afghanistan now likely to slide back into fractured fuck up plagued by clan conflicts and the fun and frolics of a brutal theocracy trying to centralise power from Kabul. All aided and abetted by outside powers stirring the pot and the huge profits resulting from drug prohibition.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

I'd go a bit further than you and say that it's wrong for multiple reasons to say that the Taliban follow medieval practices. Firstly because the term 'medieval' refers to the Middle Ages in Europe, and extending that term to the rest of the world is tough because the history of the rest of the world doesn't conform to Europe's historical timeline until much later, with the advent of colonialism. For example, the age of classical Islam in the Middle East could be said to have lasted until the 1870s, and someone's life would've been little different in 1850 when compared to 1400. The same critique could be applied to much of the world outside of the most developed capitalist countries of Europe, so the use of the term medieval when speaking about countries outside of those developed capitalist countries is awkward.

Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, in the classical period of Islam (which I'd say lasted until around 1877) very few of these so-called medieval practices would have been carried out. For example, the level of evidence required for a person to be stoned to death for adultery went far beyond the level of evidence required to be convicted under contemporary English common law. As such, truly brutal punishments would have been very rare. The question we should be asking is why are the Taliban, and regimes like them, carrying out such punishments with little regard for the classical Islamic rules of evidence?

My answer would be that they have no use for the procedural hurdles that these evidentiary requirements create, because they are an authoritarian regime that rules by fear, with a particular emphasis on the subjugation of women. Also, as I said in an earlier post in this thread, actual engagement with the sources of Sharia and Hanafi fiqh is incredibly limited in Afghanistan because much of the population is illiterate.

See above. Calling the Taliban medieval actually does a disservice to classical Islamic law, which, while not progressive by modern standards, was streets ahead of English law until well into the 19th century (on women's rights, capital punishment, and many other things).

For what it's worth, the thread is good in parts but really falls down in some places too. For example, the 'clash of civilisations' framing of the issue, the simplistic solution, and the determination to link Deobandis with Wahhabis.

A bit of a long winded explanation of how you don’t understand colloquial language.

 

[AmateurAgitator]

I've just seen footage online of loads of women protesting in the streets somewhere in Afghanistan

Edit: I think the footage is from two days ago.

 

[Brainaddict]

I wonder why the US hasn't launched a final bombing campaign to destroy their own gear they left behind. Just the optics of it? Probably too late already for a load of stuff that's already been moved, but presumably they knew where most of the kit was at the takeover point.

 

[IC3D]

Afghanistan: The End of the Occupation

Nancy Lindisfarne and Jonathan Neale write: A lot of nonsense about Afghanistan is being written in Britain and the United States. Most of this nonsense hides a number of important truths. First, t…

annebonnypirate.org

The Taliban are not the product of medieval times. They are the product of some of the worst times of the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century. If they look backward in some ways to an imagined better time, that is not surprising. But they have been moulded by life under aerial bombardment, refugee camps, communism, the War of Terror, enhanced interrogation, climate change, internet politics and the spiralling inequality of neoliberalism. They live, like everyone else, now.

Really like this article that covers a lot of the bullshit that is the US/UK saving Afghan women narrative, worth a read, seems well informed and cited.

Many Afghans were grateful for the return of order and a modicum of security, but the Taliban were sectarian and unable to control the country, and, in 1996, the Americans withdrew their support. When they did so, they unleashed a new, and deadly, version of Islamophobia against the Taliban.

Almost overnight, Afghan women were deemed helpless and oppressed, while Afghan men – aka the Taliban – were execrated as fanatical savages, paedophiles and sadistic patriarchs, hardly people at all.

 

[Spymaster]

I wonder why the US hasn't launched a final bombing campaign to destroy their own gear they left behind. Just the optics of it? Probably too late already for a load of stuff that's already been moved, but presumably they knew where most of the kit was at the takeover point.

Well the equipment left is the stuff the ANA had. I doubt dropping bombs anywhere there now is top of their agenda, let alone on former allies.

 

[Elpenor]

Might be a tad provocative to the Taliban too

 

[Brainaddict]

Might be a tad provocative to the Taliban too

Yeah, I guess so, don't get me wrong, I wasn't thinking it would be great move, just a bit surprised they didn't try. But perhaps they were thinking about the need to negotiate to get people out of Kabul and so on.

 

[Elpenor]

Yeah, I guess so, don't get me wrong, I wasn't thinking it would be great move, just a bit surprised they didn't try. But perhaps they were thinking about the need to negotiate to get people out of Kabul and so on.

The real question is whether Biden values American military equipment higher than he values Afghani lives

 

[planetgeli]

Well the equipment left is the stuff the ANA had.

Well, kind of, maybe. It might have helped if the US didn't leave Bagram in the dead of night (3am) without telling anyone. They left behind thousands of civilian cars (but took the keys - like that's going to make a long term difference) plus armoured vehicles and guns and ammunition "for the Afghans". It's no surprise that when the ANA saw the allies on the run like that, without even having the decency to leave a note, that the ANA might have started panicking and giving up themselves at that point. At which point the stuff left "for the Afghans" might have started to go over to some Afghans, but not necessarily the ANA.

 

[Spymaster]

Why have they been overrun so quicky? Eighteen months since the Doha agreement was signed should be plenty of time to get out in an orderly fashion.

kebabking ?

 

[Badgers]

More than 100 guards at the British embassy in Kabul have been told they are not eligible for UK government protection because they were hired through an outsourced contractor, the Guardian has learned.

Most of the 125-strong team of security personnel, employed by the global security firm GardaWorld, have been given informal notice that they no longer have jobs guarding the embassy, several said.

The guards, some of whom had been working for the UK embassy for over a decade, described feeling abandoned by British officials and their employer. Many have been forced into hiding, fearing for their lives.

Meanwhile, more than 100 guards doing the same work for the US embassy, under a separate GardaWorld contract, have been evacuated and others were receiving support from the US embassy, according to a senior Afghan national GardaWorld employee in charge of human resources

Guards at Kabul embassy told they are ineligible for UK protection

Exclusive: 125-strong team hired through outsourced contractor given informal notice they no longer have jobs

www.theguardian.com

 

[brogdale]

Why have they been overrun so quicky? Eighteen months since the Doha agreement was signed should be plenty of time to get out in an orderly fashion.

kebabking ?

I can only imagine that the intel had reassured the state that there would really be time beyond the pull-out whilst the Afghan armed forces held the beardies at bay, and that going precipitously early would have signalled no faith whatsoever in that outcome...which would, have course with hindsight, been correct.

 

[xenon]

Isn't it likely local deals were already being made on the ground during those 18 months. Between ANA commanders and Taliban, local politicians. So there was no significant organised coordinated military opposition to the Taliban sweeping back into major cities, and finally Kabul.

 

[planetgeli]

It's almost like the Taliban were the ones with a plan...

 

[kebabking]

Why have they been overrun so quicky? Eighteen months since the Doha agreement was signed should be plenty of time to get out in an orderly fashion.

kebabking ?

Very low morale in the ANA, catastrophic idiocy from Ghani, ignoring the int from Biden, Europeans (including UK) blindly following the US and assuming they would make it work.

Lots of factors told the formations and structures previously on the government side that they would lose - like clever people everywhere they decided it was better to lose quickly/change sides/get bought off than it was to fight a protracted war, then lose.

Its a mirror image of what we did in 2001 - many changed sides having read the tea leaves, we bought off some and intimidated others, and just rolled through. They are simply showing us a compliment by doing exactly the same.

brogdale it appears that the Int predicted exactly (roughly) this - no one thought they'd hold/win, the timing just depended on which model you used to work through what would happen. Politicians are saying that no one predicted this, but the truth is that everyone (CIA, US Mil, Mi6, UK Mil DGSE etc.., and everyone who had any real dealings with the Afghan state) predicted this, told politicians, but they simply weren't interested because it clashed with their quick/easy/cheap psychological requirements.

Politicians, their need to blame others, and the whole 'when their lips are moving' stuff.

 

[Crispy]

How did the US clear the airfield of people? No reports of what happened but how did they do it? It may well be relevant now.

Buzzed the crowds with helicopters IIRC

 

[Flavour]

Isn't it likely local deals were already being made on the ground during those 18 months. Between ANA commanders and Taliban, local politicians. So there was no significant organised coordinated military opposition to the Taliban sweeping back into major cities, and finally Kabul.

this seems rather obvious yes

 

[maomao]

Why have they been overrun so quicky? Eighteen months since the Doha agreement was signed should be plenty of time to get out in an orderly fashion.

kebabking ?

It does seem to be a popular victory in some ways. You don't take over a country in a week without having a large proportion of the people behind you.

 

[ska invita]

Isn't it likely local deals were already being made on the ground during those 18 months. Between ANA commanders and Taliban, local politicians. So there was no significant organised coordinated military opposition to the Taliban sweeping back into major cities, and finally Kabul.

This is the key thing now I think - with the invaders out of the way, what is the nature of these deals and will there be civil war or some degree of regionalised power sharing (or both)

It does seem to be a popular victory in some ways. You don't take over a country in a week without having a large proportion of the people behind you.

this line stuck with me from a Patrick Cockburn piece
"Switching sides early to that of the likely winner has always been a feature of war in Afghanistan, as it was in medieval England during the Wars of the Roses. Indeed, Shakespeare’s history plays about that period provide a good guide to the treacheries and fast-changing allegiances of Afghan politics today."

 

[Casaubon]

Oryx is keeping a tally of Afghan military equipment destroyed or captured by the Taliban.

They’ve captured at least 12 tanks, more than 700 armoured Humvees, 900 Ford Rangers, 300 Navistar International 7000s, and 24 helicopters, among a lot of other vehicles and medium/heavy weapons.

Bear in mind that Oryx only records losses confirmed by photographic evidence, so the real numbers are likely to be much higher.

I think it’d be impossible to keep track of small arms losses. The Afghan security forces had a theoretical strength of around 300,000 (I think), so there’s probably that number of rifles floating around, along with all sorts of other things. God knows where they’ll turn up.

Oryx Afghan Military Losses June - August 2021
Oryx Taliban Airforce Inventory

 

[Johnny Doe]

Oryx is keeping a tally of Afghan military equipment destroyed or captured by the Taliban.

They’ve captured at least 12 tanks, more than 700 armoured Humvees, 900 Ford Rangers, 300 Navistar International 7000s, and 24 helicopters, among a lot of other vehicles and medium/heavy weapons.

Is this standard practice, leaving behind millions of dollars of kit? Seems absurd, unless your the seller of these things and you'll be looking forward to a raft of purchases come the next big war, I guess

 

[Elpenor]

Is this standard practice, leaving behind millions of dollars of kit? Seems absurd, unless your the seller of these things and you'll be looking forward to a raft of purchases come the next big war, I guess

Dunkirk?

 

[Johnny Doe]

Dunkirk?

That's lead me down a Googlehole!