A thank you to Brexiteers.

[editor]

Not all workers. Just those who build and make stuff that’s useful and valuable.
Creative types producing adverts and jingles, I have no idea as I shun such people.

No idea where jingles are coming into this but I'll try again:

Have you any hard evidence that your anecdotal story is happening across the board for all construction workers/scaffolders as a direct result of Brexit?

 

[editor]

But hey, I recognise that only certain anecdotal evidence is accepted here on this thread (wild tales of remainer penury).
Here is a link from a company that manages 30,000 construction workers wages.

Skilled labour rates rise a fifth in a year

It is not just materials that are going up in price – labour is too.

www.google.co.uk

What's that got to do with Brexit?

The company is warning that supply chain pressures are tightening as the bounce-back economy fuels demand for skilled labour and building materials.

Its latest analysis of payroll data shows average weekly earnings of £878 during April, an increase of 19.6% compared to April 2020. The picture varies regionally, from a 29% increase in the southwest to less than 5% in London. (See table below.)

Ian Anfield, managing director of Hudson Contract, said: “The housing market is in a state of frenzy with mortgage lending rising to record levels, homeowners are spending cash piles built up during lockdowns on renovation and remodelling work and the government is proceeding with mega-projects and shovel-ready schemes to ‘build back better’.

“The UK economy is roaring so the challenge now is for the construction industry to keep pace whilst dealing with spikes in demand for skilled labour and materials.

 

[TopCat]

No idea where jingles are coming into this but I'll try again:

Have you any hard evidence that your anecdotal story is happening across the board for all construction workers/scaffolders as a direct result of Brexit?

Read the link I posted. Up by a fifth.

 

[TopCat]

What's that got to do with Brexit?

Removing free movement has caused a lack of cheap labour and rates are going up.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Removing free movement has caused a lack of cheap labour and rates are going up.

Come on TC, don't forget:

the rules: any positive outcome would have happened anyway, any negative thing is Brexit's fault.

 

[editor]

Removing free movement has caused a lack of cheap labour and rates are going up.

Source please.

This study does not back up your assertion:

ONS (2021d) reports that much of the wage growth observed in the UK is due to the changing composition of employment, with lower wage workers more likely to have become unemployed during the pandemic. Previous research finds that these cuts are highly unequal, with nearly six in 10 of 15–25-year-olds suffering from a fall in earnings (Elliot Major, Eyles and Machin, 2021). Table 2 shows that firms do expect to increase nominal wages in the next year by 1.7% on average, but the expected growth remains well below the pre-pandemic trend.

While nominal wage growth has slowed, average prices have continued to increase at a similar rate during the crisis. Our data suggests that firms have increased average prices by 0.5% throughout the pandemic, which aligns with the producer price inflation of 0.6% reported by the ONS for all manufactured products (ONS 2021e). In addition to the increase in the average price level, price volatility is currently at its highest rate since 1991 (Davies, 2021). In the period of the pandemic, the increase in average wages has been lower than the average growth of prices.

Firms expect this trend to reverse in the next 12 months, with average prices predicted to rise by 0.7% compared with the expected 1.7% growth of average wages. Lower wages often reduce demand for goods and services and put downward pressure on prices. Yet despite lower earnings growth since the pandemic, prices have increased by more. This is partially explained by rising average costs, at least in the manufacturing sector. In January 2021, 19% more firms reported that average costs of inputs have increased in the past three months than have reported that they are decreasing (Table 1). By April 2021, this has risen further to 25%. This is much higher than before the pandemic when just 6% more firms had faced increasing costs than those facing decreases. For manufactured goods, the ONS reports higher increases in input prices than output prices (ONS, 2021e). Many inputs to production are imported and freight costs have increased because of the pandemic. Brexit is likely to have further increased input costs by increasing barriers to trade between the UK and its largest trade and investment partner, the EU. We discuss this in more in the later in the briefing

https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cepcovid-19-021.pdf

 

[editor]

Come on TC, don't forget:

Yes let's just ignore the studies that don't back up what his scaffolder mate said.

On top of the pandemic, Brexit has changed economic conditions for UK firms. UK trade fell sharply in 2021, and in this report we have shown evidence that Brexit played a role in this. A sizeable share of firms is experiencing issues in trading with the EU such as delays at the border and burdensome administrative costs. This has translated into rising costs, higher prices and reduced competitiveness. The government should seek to support businesses in the transition to new trading relationships and to ensure that the increase in border costs are minimised.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Yes let's just ignore the studies that don't back up what his scaffolder mate said.

Or post up a study that is primarily concerned with the effects of Covid and try to palm it off as one that concentrates on the effects of Brexit.

 

[pseudonarcissus]

Read the link I posted. Up by a fifth.

....compared to April 2020, just when the economy was locking down...surely 2019 would be a better comparator.

 

[editor]

Or post up a study that is primarily concerned with the effects of Covid and try to palm it off as one that concentrates on the effects of Brexit.

Did you miss the title? I don't think it could be any clearer. How are you arriving at the conclusion that "it is primarily concerned with the effects of Covid"?

The impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit on the UK economy: early evidence in 2021

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Did you miss the title? I don't think it could be any clearer. How are you arriving at the conclusion that "it is primarily concerned with the effects of Covid"?

Cos I read the report and it is primarily concerned with the effects of Covid.

 

[editor]

Cos I read the report and it is primarily concerned with the effects of Covid.

So you're asserting that the authors used a misleading title then?

If that's the case, how come the report mentions Brexit 39 times and Covid just 25 times?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

So you're asserting that the authors used a misleading title then?

If that's the case, how come the report mentions Brexit 39 times and Covid just 25 times?

I am asserting the thrust of the report is on the effects of Covid, not sure how many times I need to repeat myself before that sinks in.

 

[Pickman's model]

So you're asserting that the authors used a misleading title then?

If that's the case, how come the report mentions Brexit 39 times and Covid just 25 times?

there are more ways of saying covid than there are of saying brexit, eg the virus, the pandemic, so your count may not be as indicative as you think

 

[editor]

I am asserting the thrust of the report is on the effects of Covid, not sure how many times I need to repeat myself before that sinks in.

I'm actually quite impressed by the level of your denial here. The report's title make it crystal clear what it is about, as does the ensuing content.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I'm actually quite impressed by the level of your denial here. The report's title make it crystal clear what it is about, as does the ensuing content.

OK, carry on with your delusions, really can't be bothered with your nonsense today.

 

[editor]

Do you think the report is 'primarily concerned with the effects of Covid' (despite its title)?

 

[TopCat]

Seems the only personal anecdotes allowed now are of plucky musicians travelling around Europe in the back of a transit van perched on piles of merch, playing gigs and getting home on time to sign on again.

 

[editor]

Seems the only personal anecdotes allowed now are of plucky musicians travelling around Europe in the back of a transit van perched on piles of merch, playing gigs and getting home on time to sign on again.

You means the documented cases backed up by union statements, yes?

Still, I'm glad your mate the scaffolder is doing OK, even if the study I posted up suggests he may be more like the exception to the rule.

 

[Pickman's model]

Source please.

This study does not back up your assertion:

https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cepcovid-19-021.pdf

frankly i'm not that impressed by any study of the impact of brexit which declares that the uk left the eu on 1 january 2021. and nor should you be. being as the uk left the eu on 31 january 2020. if they have that basic fact wrong, what other errors lie within?

e2a: it's hidden away on page 2



Bahnhof Strasse

 

[editor]

if they have that basic fact wrong, what other errors lie within?

That doesn't answer my question, but whatever.

 

[bimble]

Not all workers. Just those who build and make stuff that’s useful and valuable.
Creative types producing adverts and jingles, I have no idea as I shun such people.

What about farmers? The news today seems to be we are going to have a trade deal with zero imports on cheap meat from Australia - fucking Autralia ffs, that'll be a great environmental step forward .

UK farmers sound alarm over Australia trade talks

Labour accuse the government of a "sell-out" amid reports of a Cabinet rift over free trade deal.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Pickman's model]

That doesn't answer my question, but whatever.

if you're not prepared to defend your source then you might as well cede the point now

 

[TopCat]

What about farmers? The news today seems to be we are going to have a trade deal with zero imports on cheap meat from Australia - fucking Autralia ffs, that'll be a great environmental step forward .

UK farmers sound alarm over Australia trade talks

Labour accuse the government of a "sell-out" amid reports of a Cabinet rift over free trade deal.

www.bbc.co.uk

Do you think we should ditch the deal we have with New Zealand? The imported lamb makes it hard for our hill farmers to compete.

 

[bimble]

Do you think we should ditch the deal we have with New Zealand? The imported lamb makes it hard for our hill farmers to compete.

yeah, i would like to eat lamb from wales instead. the whole lamb thing is mad, i remember googling a while ago how we send legs to the other side of the planet and they send us chops back, or something like that, just mad.

or maybe its good if all the welsh hill farmers fail, the hills return to something more like how they used to be and the farmers can you know learn to write jingles.

 

[TopCat]

yeah, i would like to eat lamb from wales instead. the whole lamb thing is mad, i remember googling a while ago how we send legs to the other side of the planet and they send us chops back, or something like that, just mad.

or maybe its good if all the welsh hill farmers fail, the hills return to something more like how they used to be and the farmers can you know learn to write jingles.

I would add tarrifs to NZ lamb myself. Plus to Aussie lamb and beef.

 

[bimble]

I would add tarrifs to NZ lamb myself. Plus to Aussie lamb and beef.

well, looks like the opposite is happening.
"The Financial Times reported that Environment Secretary George Eustice and Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove are at loggerheads with International Trade Secretary Liz Truss and Brexit minister Lord Frost over granting tariff-free access to Australian, and possibly New Zealand, farmers.'
Idk how they could agree that and then claim it's a good trade deal, seems desperate.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

well, looks like the opposite is happening.
"The Financial Times reported that Environment Secretary George Eustice and Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove are at loggerheads with International Trade Secretary Liz Truss and Brexit minister Lord Frost over granting tariff-free access to Australian, and possibly New Zealand, farmers.'
Idk how they could agree that and then claim it's a good trade deal, seems desperate.

It would depend on what we can flog down there tariff free, but the plus side is lots of lovely, cheap steak and chops coming here

 

[bimble]

It would depend on what we can flog down there tariff free, but the plus side is lots of lovely, cheap steak and chops coming here

Mostly range rovers & booze it looks like, they buy from us. Anyway yeah, fuck the farmers, cheap meat from the other side of the world is great news, farmers aren't proper workers anyway.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Mostly range rovers & booze it looks like, they buy from us. Anyway yeah, fuck the farmers, cheap meat from the other side of the world is great news, farmers aren't proper workers anyway.