In theory, by looking at how it distributes seats to various parties and comparing that to polls of people's preferences. The consensus seems to be that AV will favour 'centrist' politics, tightening the stranglehold of Tories, Lib Dems and Labour on parliament and ignoring any views beyond those groups.
Yes or No -AV referendum May 2011
- Thread starter articul8
- Start date
In theory, by looking at how it distributes seats to various parties and comparing that to polls of people's preferences. The consensus seems to be that AV will favour 'centrist' politics, tightening the stranglehold of Tories, Lib Dems and Labour on parliament and ignoring any views beyond those groups.
love detective
there's no love too small
Martin Wolf (who is in favour of AV) today aknowledged in the FT that AV would pull politics towards the centre, yet in his mind this is a good thing as somewhat bizarely he claims 'the extremes have had too much weight hitherto'
He ends his piece with the advice that 'Those with a conservative disposition should support the reform'
(A8 is RP carrying a review of BTF at some point?)
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
It's a familiar claim - and if there were *only* three parties - it might be true. But the effect of UKIP means the Tories will be split between those who want to go for Euro-sceptic 2nd prefs and those who want to go for LD pro-EU ones. Likewise Labour would have incentives to appeal to the left - Plaid, SNP, Greens, TUSC and to anti-war Hughesite LDs
So I don't think Wolf is right.
(sorry what is BTF?)
So I don't think Wolf is right.
(sorry what is BTF?)
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Yeah, like the UKIP voters would vote anyone but tory as any sort of pref and the left would vote anyone but labour - no matter what.
In fact, you've just outlined a great model how the three main parties will hoover up these other votes and narrow politics down to them and them alone, exactly as Wolf claims.
In fact, you've just outlined a great model how the three main parties will hoover up these other votes and narrow politics down to them and them alone, exactly as Wolf claims.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I'm very skeptical of that claim personally. The current system pulls parties hard to the centre as they fight over the votes of a handful of swing voters in marginal constituencies. I've yet to be convinced that AV would be worse than the current system in that regard.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
May i also say in passing how pathetic, and no doubt humiliating, it is for a communist to put forward with a straight face the argument that AV is great because it means the three main parties will have to do what we, the electorate, really want.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It already is! Plaid and the SNP will still get seats, but other than the Celtic nationalists, which other parties have ever had a look-in under the current system? The Greens – one seat in one election. Wow! Sorry, that argument holds little weight.
AV encourages them to fight for the marginal voters, plus voters of the other main parties. A Labour candidate in a marginal consitutency can count on the second preferences of anyone to the left of them, but will need to appeal to the Lib Dems and the Tories in order to pick up their second preferences. AV makes appealing to the Lib Dems even more important than under FPTP.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
It hasn't pulled them to the centre, it's pulled them to neo-liberal extremes.
The mainstream parties will be attempting to appeal to those exact same voters in swing seats no matter what the system anyway.
And of course AV will, as the nature of voting against means you use your votes for the party best placed to beat your most hated one - and that is in 99.9999% of seats one of the main parties. It forces you to do that by intention and nature.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Of course it already does - how is that an argument against the idea that AV will too? AV will also intensify this by making people 'vote against' - and to that succesfully you don't vote for minor parties. You vote for the big ones.
I'm not sure what argument you think i've made against AV that holds little weight because FPTP hasn't elected a long list of radical candidates.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Ok, it's pulled them to neo-liberal extremes, agreed. But the point is that it's pulled them all to the same neo-liberal extreme.
I don't in fact see a problem necessarily with the idea that any candidate must secure less than 50% of the 'most hated' vote, which is what AV ensures. There is quite a democratic deficit when over half an MP's electorate despise their MP.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Oo's ver Commie?
'Scuse my ignorance
a8
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
fuck me sideways. Speechless.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
So a candidate must receive 50% of the votes to win - do you think they're going to be of any party but those who you've already just correctly described as all being of the extreme centre? What parties are the only ones really placed to achieve this 50%
fuck me sideways. Speechless.
To be fair, he is probably just trying to accelerate the advancement of the capitalist project in order to make manifest its contradictions, thus bringing about the dictatorship of the proletariat sooner rather than later.
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
It would create tension in the main parties - in Labour, between those that want to aim for Orange Book LD or even Tory 2nd preferences, and those who want shift left to appeal to SNP/Plaid/Green/Lefts.
You totally ignore the way the current system leaves the main parties to ignore the voters in their own safe seats (ie. working class communities most disposed to vote Labour) and pursue the swing vote in middle England marginals. And people end up voting Labour tactically because anything else is a "waste". You don't like my term disaggregation, but it would be a real factor in freeing up Labour voters to demonstrate that they are lending their support to the least worst neo-liberal party as an expedient not because they identify with its politics.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
You can possibly wave goodbye to your Lucas and Galloways winning on 35% in this situation as well...
love detective
there's no love too small
Whether he's right or not though (i think he is), it gives a glimpse into the thinking of those who are supporting AV because they:-
a) believe that the non-centrist parties have too much influence/weight as it is, and
b) have a conservative disposition
Not exactly the best advert/argument for AV as a progressive development
Beating The Fascists - Freedom told us RP had been in touch about a review - give us a shout if you wanted to do an interview with author(s)
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
They won't have to try and appeal to anyone they don't already - they know the vote to their left or right is already stitched up. This fantasy of the labour party being pulled to the hard left by the incessant demands of the electorate are of a piece with the fantasy of small left parties turning large right ones to the left in coalitions - the opposite happens, they're
pulled rightwards. The large parties have these votes already.
And no i don't, you know damn well that i don't, that i've brought this up many many times on here. That this exists doesn't effect my argument that AV will do exactly the same and probably worse. You really need to stop inventing this mad shit, that AV will lead to a re-engagement by the mainstream parties with w/c needs and concerns - it's mental, naive and you don't believe it for one second.
More to the point, if you do believe it, then which parties are going to hoovering up these votes? Oh yes, the three mainstream parties of the 'centre' - exactly as i've been arguing will be the case and you that it won't. Simultaneously the large parties will be forced to react to w/c demands and parties other than the large ones will spring up and win seats from the large parties that aren't reacting to w/c needs.
Is there nothing AV cannot do?
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
British election survey suggests Lucas would still have won under AV. Lucas is supporting AV:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12576979
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
What does the BES suggest exactly?
She's right there, it's taken as read that tactical voting is what you'll be forced to do. No agonising at all.
lucas said:
She's right there, it's taken as read that tactical voting is what you'll be forced to do. No agonising at all.
Random
Ethnic nalgocrat
This is the utter be-all and end-all of the socialist angle to your argument for AV.
I can't see it as anything much. Why should this kind of 'demonstration' from some voters cause any problems for the neo-liberal Labour Party? Or any change in that party? It'll still be Labour MPs who get elected by these 'demonstrating' left wingers.
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
Yes, but the ultimatum "vote Labour rather than Green/Left/independent or you'll help the Tories" currently helps to squeeze those smaller parties of the support they do actually enjoy. AV would reveal this and free up voters to demonstrate their real preference.
It won't lead directly to that, but it will start to break down that logic that there is no support to be had from appealing from a left position. And more importantly it will keep up momentum for PR in the 2nd chamber which will break it down a lot further and faster.
That Greens or single issue independents are better placed to do this than the organised far left is a challenge that they have been too slow to face in any case.
Nothing is certain - but I think it's worth pursuing anything that could help to break the logjam. AV alone won't realise this - but it keeps up the pressure for further change. Slapping down Clegg is all very well, but it will be used as weapon by other conservative forces.
Random
Ethnic nalgocrat
Lots of things are worth pursuing, if you're well paid by Lib Dem grandees to do so.
Random
Ethnic nalgocrat
Hope lies in the Lords.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
By really voting labour. How is that not a squeeze towards the centre? Towards the big parties?
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
It will make it more worthwhile for activists to go out to campaign for and build smaller left parties because everyone gets to show their support without - as at present- surrendering their ability to influence the outcome and stop an even worse neo-liberal party from winning the seat.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
i.e without not being able to vote labour or lib-dem as their real vote. How does this not funnel votes and outcomes to the centre/large parties?
Similar threads
