Yes or No -AV referendum May 2011

[articul8]

oh, jesus wept. Right, i'll explain simply. Individual MPs, and local parties, will see a lost AV vote as the final straw, as their party haemorrhages popularity, and will either jump ship, or at least call to change the captain, in an attempt to save their own skins. You know, like the Tories did with Maggie?

No they simply won't - they are expecting a hammering anyway at the May elections. They'll be disappointed but would take it on the chin. If it was lost 18 months out that would be a different story. But the leadership factored in a period of intense unpopularity. They know that so many of their MPs have Cabinet jobs, junior ministries, PPS roles etc that the "payroll" vote will keep them safe for a good while - irrespective of a referednum defeat.

 

[articul8]

I disagree. So I'll be casting my vote accordingly.

OK. But just see if you feel the same way after weeks of being applauded for your stance by Tory after Tory. You might do. Which is your right.

 

[kabbes]

OK. But just see if you feel the same way after weeks of being applauded for your stance by Tory after Tory. You might do. Which is your right.

I agree with the Tories about ID cards too. Surprisingly, the fact that they agree with me hasn't made me change my stance.

 

[Streathamite]

OK. But just see if you feel the same way after weeks of being applauded for your stance by Tory after Tory. You might do. Which is your right.

what a rubbish answer. it's blatantly obvious various people are voting 'no' for different reasons, the fact that they include tories shouldn't deter me from also voting no for my own, unconnected reasons.

 

[Streathamite]

No they simply won't - they are expecting a hammering anyway at the May elections. They'll be disappointed but would take it on the chin. If it was lost 18 months out that would be a different story. But the leadership factored in a period of intense unpopularity. They know that so many of their MPs have Cabinet jobs, junior ministries, PPS roles etc that the "payroll" vote will keep them safe for a good while - irrespective of a referednum defeat.

this ignores a) how much backbone we'll find in people with zero previous experience of govt, and b) the pressure from their grassroots. The parly libdems are far more accountable to ordinary members than with the other 2 main parties.
And the same logic, surely, would have applied to the tories in 1990. individual MPs saw their seats going, and pulled the emergency cord. No reason why they won't do that here, especially as so many libdems at the grassroots are so unhappy about the direction they're headed in.

 

[butchersapron]

I sincerely hope the above approach is one that yes vote campaign adopts - *do what we say for the reasons we say or you're a tory* - it'll take one second to demolish simply by pointing to the neo-liberal extremists behind the yes vote.

 

[kabbes]

At the very least, it implies that the Yes campaigners think that those voting No must have an incredibly insecurity about their own political stance.

I agree with the Tories about lots of things. For example, they appear to agree (in policy, at least) that torture is unacceptable. Why should the fact that they want the same outcome cause me to doubt myself?

 

[articul8]

The parly libdems are far more accountable to ordinary members than with the other 2 main parties.

How so? Did the party consult its members about ditching the tuition fees pledge? Or about slash and burn with housing benefit? I think the leadership has backed their activist base and membership (different again from their voter base) into falling in behind them out of desperation to make the coalition seem to have worked. Only when it has had more time to bed in will they actually even consider a break.

And the same logic, surely, would have applied to the tories in 1990. individual MPs saw their seats going, and pulled the emergency cord. No reason why they won't do that here, especially as so many libdems at the grassroots are so unhappy about the direction they're headed in.

Thatcher was elected in 1979. She wasn't toppled until 1990. Their popularity nosedived in 80/81 but they didn't kick her out then. They did what the LDs will do - assume "somthing will turn up".

 

[articul8]

At the very least, it implies that the Yes campaigners think that those voting No must have an incredibly insecurity about their own political stance.

I agree with the Tories about lots of things. For example, they appear to agree (in policy, at least) that torture is unacceptable. Why should the fact that they want the same outcome cause me to doubt myself?

there's a difference between issues the Tories happen to be campaigning on, and issues which they see as core to their ongoing political party self-interest.

 

[kabbes]

I'm sure that they see a policy against torture to also be core to their ongoing political party self-interest.

 

[butchersapron]

No to AV. Yes to PR

AV less popular than first-past-the-post which is less popular than PR

More from Lindsell here.

(I'm totally sceptical about why they commissioned this research, looks like they're maybe trying to sell their services to one side or the other)

 

[moochedit]

http://www.lindsellmarketing.com/index.php/whats-new/new-research-on-voting-system-preferences

To be truly representative of available voting system options, the May referendum should also present citizens with proportional systems such as Additional Member, Alternative Vote Plus, Single Transferable Vote or Party List.

problem with a multi option referendum in what voting system do they use for the referendum

 

[moochedit]

maybe that 45% should just spoil the ballet paper and write "PR" on it then ?

 

[articul8]

(I'm totally sceptical about why they commissioned this research, looks like they're maybe trying to sell their services to one side or the other)

You're right to be. Almost certainly commisioned by the anti-FPTP "NO 2 AV" campaign for whom PR purists are acting as useful idiots.

 

[moochedit]

I am still making my mind up about this at the moment.
I don't know if these are already posted on here but....

http://no2av.org/

http://www.yestofairervotes.org/content/

 

[shagnasty]

My vote will be no as a judgement on the betrayal of the lib dems

 

[moon23]

By the time of the referendum in May there's going to be such anti-government anger that this will in no way be fought 'on the issues' of abstract electoral reform. It'll be seen as a government referendum and so people who hate the government will, if they vote, will vote no. Unless they're paid to vote yes by a think tank, of course.

How will that work when the largest party in government wants people to vote yes, surley by this logic people will vote against the Tories?

 

[moon23]

My vote will be no as a judgement on the betrayal of the lib dems

This is a stupid, it's about the electoral system not a poll on the Lib Dems. You will be voting with the Tories and the BNP to make a statement and in doing so setting the country back in terms of reform for another 50 years.

 

[Paulie Tandoori]

don't vote, make trouble

 

[moon23]

oh, jesus wept. Right, i'll explain simply. Individual MPs, and local parties, will see a lost AV vote as the final straw, as their party haemorrhages popularity, and will either jump ship, or at least call to change the captain, in an attempt to save their own skins. You know, like the Tories did with Maggie?

Not likely at all it will do the opposite and tie the LDs to the Tory ship in the blind hope that in 3-4 years time at a general election the polls will be better. Having AV will make the party more confident it wouldn't be annihilated if it broke the coalition and forced a General Election.

It beggars believe though that anyone would turn what is an important referendum about the voting system into some partisan tactical decision. I think that’s about the most cynical and depressing thing I’ve heard in a while.

 

[butchersapron]

You're right to be. Almost certainly commisioned by the anti-FPTP "NO 2 AV" campaign for whom PR purists are acting as useful idiots.

Almost scientific levels of proof there. Someone should pay you to argue the yes vote. And another example of insulting puralism. More! More maturity! More intelligence! More!

 

[butchersapron]

How will that work when the largest party in government wants people to vote yes, surley by this logic people will vote against the Tories?

You really should not even think about going into politics.

 

[butchersapron]

This is a stupid, it's about the electoral system not a poll on the Lib Dems. You will be voting with the Tories and the BNP to make a statement and in doing so setting the country back in terms of reform for another 50 years.

Even better, you've outdone a8 - fantastic! Vote yes or you're a racist. Or a fascist.

You are so fucked.

 

[butchersapron]

Not likely at all it will do the opposite and tie the LDs to the Tory ship in the blind hope that in 3-4 years time at a general election the polls will be better. Having AV will make the party more confident it wouldn't be annihilated if it broke the coalition and forced a General Election.

It beggars believe though that anyone would turn what is an important referendum about the voting system into some partisan tactical decision. I think that’s about the most cynical and depressing thing I’ve heard in a while.

You really really shouldn't even consider even thinking about thinking about going into politics.

You clueless Cunt.

 

[moon23]

You really really shouldn't even consider even thinking about thinking about going into politics.

You clueless Cunt.

I note you have degenerated into vulgar insults, a sure sign of anyone losing an argument.

 

[butchersapron]

Or winning.

Seriously, how cloth-headed do you have to be to think this:

It beggars believe though that anyone would turn what is an important referendum about the voting system into some partisan tactical decision. I think that’s about the most cynical and depressing thing I’ve heard in a while.

 

[moon23]

Can I ask a question, given that people on this board are generally unfavourable towards the current Coalition has this made anyone more weary of PR which would result in the electorate returning coalitions all the time?

 

[butchersapron]

I have to applaud you on the vote for us or you're a racist approach though. You can't even see what harm you're doing.

 

[butchersapron]

Can I ask a question, given that people on this board are generally unfavourable towards the current Coalition has this made anyone more weary of PR which would result in the electorate returning coalitions all the time?

The coalition hasn't launched this attack this because it's a coalition but because it's formed of neo-liberal extremists.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Can I ask a question, given that people on this board are generally unfavourable towards the current Coalition has this made anyone more weary of PR which would result in the electorate returning coalitions all the time?

PR would be a good thing in providing a more credible distribution of seats in line with voters preferences; it is not a solution to the failed politics which dominate debate in the UK.

Louis MacNeice