Will you vote for independence?

[JTG]

Is Spain the only other country with regions wanting to break free?

Off the top of my head: parts of northern Italy, Corsica, whatever the fuck's going on in Belgium...

For Spain submission leads to non existence that's a big deal, and if the oil is such a game changer why is the UK even allowing a referendum.

To shut the Nats up for a generation. Could backfire...

 

[gosub]

And just to show what always happens: one expert says no, the next says something different:

Sir David Edward says Jose Manuel Barroso 'wrong' on EU

A senior legal expert has challenged the opinion of the European Commission president over the status of an independent Scotland in the EU.

But Professor Sir David Edward, a former European Court judge, believes that Scotland and the rest of the UK would be in a comparable position.

There would be no need for a new accession treaty, he argued.

Instead, negotiations prior to independence would result in amended EU treaties.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-20757450


(Furthmore, Jose Manuel Barroso's term in office expires in October this year. 16 months before the proposed Scottish independence day).

Ah was wondering where SNP legal advice (when they eventually took some) had come from, was beginning to think it was from Colin, who mans reception at the EUropean Commission at weekends

 

[danny la rouge]

this would be the azores with no significant group calling for independence?

I refer you to my caveat about differing degrees of public support.

 

[danny la rouge]

It was went to mean that you are now arguing that in the event of Scots govenrment doing things that they aren't planing on then a position might emerge that might enable them to get in the position that they want.

We are all arguing hypotheticals. Yes, I am supposing. I think it's perfectly reasonable to wonder what stances might be taken during the 18 months of negotiations before independence day.

I find it hard to believe that the position would be: "we're not getting in? Och well".

 

[danny la rouge]

For Spain submission leads to non existence that's a big deal, and if the oil is such a game changer why is the UK even allowing a referendum.

You are misrepresenting me. I didn't say it was a game changer. We are all guessing. I am just pointing out that the EU has opposing imperatives, and economic ones will carry weight.

Have a look at the map of EU fishing waters. And then the history of Spanish fishing.

Why "allow" a referendum? A. The SNP won a majority at Holyrood. The velvet gloves of the UK state don't publicly come off unless necessary. B. The opinion polls over the last 30 years have always had support for independence at 30 - 40 %.

 

[gosub]

We are all arguing hypotheticals. Yes, I am supposing. I think it's perfectly reasonable to wonder what stances might be taken during the 18 months of negotiations before independence day.

I find it hard to believe that the position would be: "we're not getting in? Och well".

Be nice if they weren't hypotheticals cos the everybody else is wrong and picking on us is going to ware a bit thin. I suspect not however. Will find out next week. Salmond's initial we won't pay the debt understandable pique and the inflexibility that comes with drive. But if he isn't placating the bond market by the end of the week - game over

 

[JTG]

How many votes does the bond market have?

 

[gosub]

How many votes does the bond market have?

None directly, more about being a credible Country

 

[danny la rouge]

Be nice if they weren't hypotheticals

I'm talking about on this thread. If you have inside knowledge of behind the scenes workings, I'd be interested to hear them. For me, I'm just posting on a bulletin board.

 

[Tankus]

Off the top of my head: parts of northern Italy, Corsica, whatever the fuck's going on in Belgium...


To shut the Nats up for a generation. Could backfire...

Lots of awkward squads, some of whom go around killing people to get what they want, far too much political investment in blood to say yes to "Prez" Salmond ,it would be pulling the finger out of the dyke..

 

[geminisnake]

if the oil is such a game changer why is the UK even allowing a referendum.

Coz it's not up to the UK. International law states countries have the right to self determination and although Blair tried to claim Scotland is a region it isn't, it's a country whether you like it or not

 

[gosub]

Coz it's not up to the UK. International law states countries have the right to self determination and although Blair tried to claim Scotland is a region it isn't, it's a country whether you like it or not

UK gov only did the temp amendment to section 30 in Oct 2012

 

[danny la rouge]

It's interesting that the only part of what Barroso had to say that was picked up by the media was on an independent Scotland. He had a lot to say about the current Tory government's plans, too.

For example, he said it would be “difficult” and “not possible” for Cameron to renegotiate free movement of peoples, or change rules on welfare spending on migrants.

He said that "deeper fiscal union" of Bank of England with the euro was “unavoidable”.

He said Cameron’s EU referendum is “extremely difficult” and requires the unanimity of 27 countries.

He said Cameron seeking to put a cap on the number of EU citizens who can come into Britain is "complete contradiction" of the single market.

So, if Barroso's word is final on independence, why is it not final on all these things (and more), too? And, what's more, where is all the media coverage telling us the Tories' plans on all these things are in tatters?

 

[danny la rouge]

Here's the transcript: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/1602141.pdf

 

[danny la rouge]

The Guardian:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/17/barroso-scotland-ludicrous-remarks

Barroso's remarks on Scottish independence are as ludicrous as his record in office

The warning from the president of the European commission, José Manuel Barroso, that an application by an independent Scotland to join the European Union would be "difficult if not impossible" to negotiate is both politically maladroit and unlikely to improve Barrosso's lamentable record in running the EU's executive for the past 10 years as he now prepares to leave office.

The idea that the Scottish people could be ejected or indefinitely suspended from the EU for opting for national independence is laughable.

 

[Pickman's model]

The Guardian:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/17/barroso-scotland-ludicrous-remarks

Barroso's remarks on Scottish independence are as ludicrous as his record in office

The warning from the president of the European commission, José Manuel Barroso, that an application by an independent Scotland to join the European Union would be "difficult if not impossible" to negotiate is both politically maladroit and unlikely to improve Barrosso's lamentable record in running the EU's executive for the past 10 years as he now prepares to leave office.

The idea that the Scottish people could be ejected or indefinitely suspended from the EU for opting for national independence is laughable.

i don't think that the guardian stands four square behind every viewpoint put forward through 'comment is free' any more than they identify the paper with every notion put forward on their letters page. the truth is no one knows what the position would be as thus far the question has never arisen. however, it's by no means a foregone conclusion that the emergence of a new state from an existing member would automatically become a new member. what is clear is that the snp promises seem based on the notion that their desires will become reality. it is possible that scotland would be welcomed as a new partner by the eu. but i don't think that really matters because people can trust the snp on this if they want. but the snp's promises on the pound etc etc ad nauseam seem from what i've read to be based more on wishful thinking than any realistic assessment of the situation.

 

[danny la rouge]

It's a link to a piece in the Guardian. I no more suggested it reflected Guardian editorial policy than indeed that I agreed with it.

 

[Pickman's model]

It's a link to a piece in the Guardian. I no more suggested it reflected Guardian editorial policy than indeed that I agreed with it.

grand

 

[gosub]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26226593


that does not bode well, still Yes have a board meeting today, last chance saloon.

 

[teuchter]

They were talking about Scottish independence on Resonance FM's weekly politics geekery show last week.

You can listen here

http://novaramedia.com/2014/02/indyref-whats-it-all-about-jimmy/

They discuss various things in a fair bit of detail. These are views from south of the border, although I doubt very representative. I'd be interested to hear what you lot make of it.

 

[danny la rouge]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26226593


that does not bode well, still Yes have a board meeting today, last chance saloon.

What exactly doesn't bode well? And why is it the "last chance saloon"?

Much as I actually disagree with the notion of a monetary union with Sterling, Salmond does not. It's his preferred option. If he believes it to be in the best interests of Scotland and the rUK, as he says he does, then he should carry on putting that case. He is right to do so.

The Scottish Government has published the reasons it has come to that decision, and has outlined the different possible options. It continues to think it has chosen the right one.

 

[gosub]

The bond market won't watch the whole independence debate , they have better things to do and don't really give a fuck - all they care about is money. But they will have watched today. For all his talk of the British pound is the Scottish pound he didn't play the statesman -reassuring investors that investment in this Island was safe and that payments would continue to be made. Instead he outlined how big a shit he could put on the gaming table. Only a lunatic would invite him to pull up a chair.

As for starting a game on a new table whilst leaving rUK stumbling on the old stinking one, the players will stack the deck to ensure the shit Scotland has to swallow is fatal, if only for the sake of keeping the casinos open.

 

[danny la rouge]

For all your lively metaphor, your post neither conveys what Salmond actually said, nor describes the real world.

 

[butchersapron]

I find the last pages bizarre. Danny talking clearly and someone who might need a translator arguing that s/he only thing that matters is the bond market. Then him/her saying bond market. Bond market. Bond Market.

 

[danny la rouge]

Here is the full transcript of Salmond's speech, and the video of the full thing. Judge for yourself whether he shat on a table, or the bond market something, something, something.

http://news.stv.tv/politics/264391-in-full-alex-salmonds-speech-on-currency-union-and-independence/

 

[danny la rouge]

Scottish independence and the EU, Professor Michael Keating, University of Aberdeen:

http://futureukandscotland.ac.uk/blog/scottish-independence-and-eu

 

[Sue]

I find the last pages bizarre. Danny talking clearly and someone who might need a translator arguing that s/he only thing that matters is the bond market. Then him/her saying bond market. Bond market. Bond Market.

Steady...

 

[danny la rouge]

It's only because I'm typing.

 

[Sue]

There's been a noticeable increase in coverage about all this down here over the last few weeks, mainly due to the pronouncements of the BT Troika/Barroso. Everyone's now an expert and all which is kind of doing my head in -- someone asked me quite seriously the other day if we'd considered giving some form of devolution a go instead of independence...

 

[danny la rouge]

someone asked me quite seriously the other day if we'd considered giving some form of devolution a go instead of independence...

That could be a goer, you know...