Will you vote for independence?

[danny la rouge]

Murphy is a creep, as NUS President he greased the way for student loans, he voted for the war in Iraq, tuition fees, etc, however, he is very polished and a smart media player.

Btw, I read that Findlay has said "Labour must be left wing to win"

In order to become First Minister, Murphy would need to become an MSP (he's currently an MP). It isn't a foregone conclusion. If he wants a constituency seat in his patch (East Renfrew), he'd need to usurp the sitting Labour MSPs Hugh Henry or Ken Macintosh. Miliband would be unwise to try to unseat the latter, after his gaffe (Miliband was unable to name him in a TV interview, despite Mackintosh having been one of the frontrunning leadership candidates when Lamont won the top job). And the former has won "Scottish politician of the year" in the past. So either Murphy would need to be top of the West of Scotland list (would Labour be guaranteed their West of Scotland list places if they do as badly as predicted?) or find another seat.

His Westminster Constituency was once the safest Tory seat in Scotland, but Murphy holds it with more than 50% of the vote. He won't lose it, since the Tories are the challengers and their fortunes won't revive. Unless the STV IPSOS/Mori poll gosub posted is reflected in the GE next year! (Highly doubtful).

 

[weepiper]

 

[Sue]

According to the BBC news, Anas Sarwar is stepping down as deputy. Interesting.

 

[DexterTCN]

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides...nnihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/

And the reports are all about labour.

 

[treelover]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...et-fighter-save-scottish-labour?commentpage=4


Total hagiography of Murphy by Watt in the Guardian, I remember Murphy as NUS President, polished, slimy, but I have to say, very charismatic.

actually its like an advertorial.

 

[danny la rouge]

"Revealed: Care worker arrested over indy ref violence is member of flute band with links to Ulster paramilitaries", says Daily Record. (Quoted so you don't have to click the link).

DARRAN MURRAY, who was arrested over violence in Glasgow's George Square, is a member of a band that has been barred from Orange Order parades.

A CARE worker arrested after shameful scenes of violence following the referendum campaign is a member of a flute band banned for links with loyalist paramilitaries.

Darran Murray, a senior residential worker at a children’s home in Lanarkshire, is a member of Greengairs Thistle flute band.

They are barred from Orange Order parades.

Our pictures show Murray, 37, taking part in parades which celebrate the life of killer Brian Robinson – who was shot dead by an undercover Army unit.

The Ulster Volunteer Force assassin was killed moments after he executed an innocent Catholic man as he walked down the street.

The Record told how Murray has been reported to the procurator fiscal over his activities during confrontations in Glasgow’s George Square the day after the independence referendum.

Murray was photographed just behind police barricades, his arm out in a Nazi salute while shouting obscenities at TV cameras.

Daily Record.

 

[The Boy]

Was at the Gallery of Modern Art in Edinburgh the other day. One of the installations was massive picture of Greengairs Thistle band taken by, iirc, Giles Sutherland. In spite of there being upwards of twenty people in the image there were only about three faces between them.

 

[geminisnake]

"Revealed: Care worker arrested over indy ref violence is member of flute band with links to Ulster paramilitaries", says Daily Record. (Quoted so you don't have to click the link).



Daily Record.

I hope he loses his job now then, because he should never, imo, have been near kids in the first place!

 

[weepiper]

!
Yow.

 

[butchersapron]

The latest Scottish Westminster poll (Panelbase):

SNP 41% (-4)
Labour 31% (-3)
Con 14% (-1)
UKIP 7% (=)
LD 4% (=)

Which gives this seat projection:
SNP - (35)
LAB - (20)
CON - (2)
UKIP - (-)
LDEM -(2)

 

[Frankie Jack]

Indeed. Comical watching the SLabites having wind up fun on Twatter with this poll.

 

[Frankie Jack]

SLabours #MyFutureScotland on twatter has backfired to great hilarity.

 

[butchersapron]

Glenrothes West (Fife):
SNP - 55.3% (+26.0)
LAB - 35.8% (-8.5)

That's

SNP - 2539
LAB - 1643
CON - 202
UKIP - 146
LDEM - 61

This is going to be about turnout - labour turnout - come may i think - and like it or not, a load of tories are going to be voting SNP as well as decent human beings.

That said, labour would kill for just a 9% hit.

 

[Celyn]

Hmm, hasn't Labour managed to have a surprise result at Glenrothes before?

 

[danny la rouge]

Glenrothes West (Fife):
SNP - 55.3% (+26.0)
LAB - 35.8% (-8.5)

That's

SNP - 2539
LAB - 1643
CON - 202
UKIP - 146
LDEM - 61

This is going to be about turnout - labour turnout - come may i think - and like it or not, a load of tories are going to be voting SNP as well as decent human beings.

That said, labour would kill for just a 9% hit.

It's worth remembering, too, that that 9% is measured from the 2012 council elections, when the SNP were already ahead of Labour nationally, not from the 2010 Westminster elections.

It's in the Glenrothes constituency, which was held by Labour in 2010 by an increased majority, though on a low turnout.

 

[danny la rouge]

Hmm, hasn't Labour managed to have a surprise result at Glenrothes before?

At Westminster level it's been a Labour constituency since it was created. Before that it was the main part of the old Central Fife constituency, held for years until the mid 80s by the legendary Willie Hamilton. He was succeeded by Henry McLeish, prior to McLeish becoming an MSP. It's traditional weighing Labour votes rather than counting them territory.

That said, it is part of the demographic in recent years that has swung to the SNP in Holyrood elections. The Holyrood seat that covers much of the area was won by Tricia Marwick in 2007, when the SNP formed its first Holyrood administration.

What's interesting about this win is that the ward is the Labour heartland of the constituency. These are exactly the areas that are moving from Labour to SNP first in Holyrood, and now, supposedly, in Westminster. That this ward goes SNP from Labour at this time (incidentally moving the balance of power at Fife Council, at one time a council nobody could imagine being anything but Labour) seems to add evidence to this Labour to SNP trajectory that is only now being noticed by the London media.

 

[butchersapron]

Of all the things I've ever been called on here....

 

[danny la rouge]

Of all the things I've ever been called on here....

. How *are* those West London wine bars?

 

[danny la rouge]

It's only just occurred to me that this by election will have been held using STV, and that although the by election was caused by the the death of a sitting Labour councillor, that seat would have been as part of an STV multi-member ward. (I'm unable to tell through the noise what the previous ward representation was, although I suspect it was 2 Labour 2 SNP and is now 3 SNP 2 Labour).

I'm afraid the arithmetic significance of this one place in that ward is therefore beyond me. (Had all the members in the ward been up for re-election, that'd have been different).

 

[weepiper]

There's an Edinburgh University study out today about the makeup of the Yes vote, in the Daily Record, I haven't seen the actual article but this is some of the figures from it which someone has typed up and stuck on facebook

According to a University of Edinburgh research this is the demographic breakdown of Yes voters
Yes vote by age

16-19 62.5%
20-24 51.4%
25-39 55.2%
30-39 53.9%
40-49 50.6%
50-59 47.1%
60-69 43.7%
70+ 34.3%

Yes vote by sex

Men 53.2%
Women 43.4%

Yes vote breakdown by social class

Working Class 53.6%
Middle Class 41.7%

Yes vote breakdown by income

Top earners 46.8%
Middle earners 44.5%
Low earners 42.4%
Bottom earners 56.5%

Yes vote by identity

British 10%
Mostly Brit 12.4%
Equally Brit & Scot 81.4%
Mostly Scot 60.4%
Scottish 88.6%

Yes vote by religious breakdown

Atheist 54.1%
Anglican 18.4%
Catholic 56%
Church of Scot 40.9%
Other 48.7%

 

[danny la rouge]

There's an Edinburgh University study out today about the makeup of the Yes vote, in the Daily Record, I haven't seen the actual article but this is some of the figures from it which someone has typed up and stuck on facebook

Go the young, working class, low earning, Scottish, atheist/Catholic men!

 

[weepiper]

Go the young, working class, low earning, Scottish, atheist/Catholic men!

They're who won it in Glasgow.

 

[weepiper]

Another by-election result



(that's a gain from an independent and makes the SNP the largest group on the council)

 

[danny la rouge]

They're who won it in Glasgow.

Indeed.

There's also a study being reported on that allegedly says that No voters weren't swayed by the Vow but by feelings of British identity and fear (chiefly over the economy). Haven't seen it yet, and reluctant to concur with the way the BBC have understood it until I have read it. But if so, then that's interesting.

 

[butchersapron]

Oh yeah - more from that Edinburgh study:

Since losing the referendum, Mr Salmond has suggested that “the vow” underwritten by former prime minister Mr Brown in the dying days of the campaign was the key factor that halted the Yes Scotland juggernaut. In interviews, the former First Minister has said the vow was the turning point.

But one of the study’s authors, Professor Ailsa Henderson, said the research suggested differently. She said: “There is clearly a divergence between the perception among Yes voters that the offer of more powers was an important aspect of the campaign and reality of how No voters reached their decision.

“The issue of ‘more powers’ is not cited as the main reason for voting No. However, Yes voters are convinced it caused a loss of nerve leading to support for the Union.”

Last night Dr Johns said: “It is not unusual for a misleading narrative to develop about what swung an election or referendum. According to our data, anyone who thinks ‘it was the Vow wot won it’ is exaggerating, to say the least. However, once these narratives develop, they can be hard to shift.”

 

[danny la rouge]

Oh yeah - more from that Edinburgh study:

Cheers.

I've long suspected that Yes supporters are wrong about the Vow.

 

[butchersapron]

Cheers.

I've long suspected that Yes supporters are wrong about the Vow.

Full report out later today. Should make interesting reading.

 

[danny la rouge]

I wrote back in October:

"pro-independence people assume that many No voters would have voted Yes had they only known that the No camp weren’t to be trusted on more devo powers. [...]

How do we know? These are assumptions stemming from a pro-independence mind-set.

The Vow

I was recently speaking to some friends who had voted No, and they were quite clear that they knew the last minute devolution promises weren’t to be trusted. That Vow played no part in their decision to vote No; they were going to vote No anyway. For them, more devo was neither here nor there: they wanted the UK to stay united.

Until there is better research done on people’s reasons for voting No, we can’t know how many of them are simply Unionists who want Britain to stay whole. Why assume they were in fact duped potential independence supporters? Why not face up to the possibility that many – perhaps all – of the 55% who voted No were simply Unionists?

The answer of course is that pro-independence supporters don’t want to believe that. It’s easier to believe that at least a proportion of that 55% were hoodwinked into casting their No votes – perhaps even enough to have given Yes a majority.

There has, after all, been a majority against independence for as long as polls have been taken on the issue, going back decades."

 

[two sheds]

Yes vote by identity

British 10%
Mostly Brit 12.4%
Equally Brit & Scot 81.4%
Mostly Scot 60.4%
Scottish 88.6%

I bet loads of them are English - bloody immigrants again, moving in then demanding everybody pander to *their* wishes, why don't they just integrate?

 

[weepiper]

I believe that is officially more than the entire Scottish Labour membership.