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Will you vote for independence?

Scottish independence?

  • Yes please

    Votes: 99 56.6%

  • No thanks

    Votes: 57 32.6%

  • Dont know yet

    Votes: 17 9.7%
  • Total voters
    175
Yeah especially considering that she'll still be Head of State even if Scotland goes independent.

Anymore on a more sensible note there's a blog post on the UKPollingReport discussing the very different polling results YouGov and Panelbase are getting.
It remains quite strange that YouGov have shown this sharp narrowing in the race while Panelbase haven’t. The difference is not just an outlying poll – while one single poll could be a freak result, YouGov has shown a consistent narrowing in the face over three polls. It’s not down to any methodological change – this poll was conducted using exactly the same methodology as YouGov’s previous poll. The only recent change in methods was four polls ago, introducing weighting by place of birth, and both YouGov and Panelbase introduced that at about the same time. Things like a differential willingness to respond to polls (people who support a campaign on the up being more likely to click on the email) should affect both Panelbase and YouGov the same – they are both online companies using a panel based system.
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ska invita said:
they imply it needs to be saved though
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It's true. If it's to survive in its current form it needs to be saved.
Whether it *should* survive is obv a different matter.

Must admit I'm personally pretty much on the fence. But then, I don't have a vote so that's not relevant.
 
8ball said:
It's true. If it's to survive in its current form it needs to be saved.
Whether it *should* survive is obv a different matter.

Must admit I'm personally pretty much on the fence. But then, I don't have a vote so that's not relevant.
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those headlines suggest it should be saved...
the opposite headlines would read
PARTIES UNITE IN LAST DITCH BID TO BREAK THE UNION
ONLY TEN DAYS LEFT TO FREE BRITAIN
TEN DAYS LEFT TO DISMANTLE THE UNION
etc
 
Two of my neighbours (tenement block of 8 flats) put No Thanks posters up last week after a canvasser came round. They've taken them down again :hmm: I'd love to know whether it's because they've changed their minds but I don't know these particular two well enough to ask. Two more neighbours in the same block have had Yes posters up for a while, don't know what the others think.
 
Craig Murray on that YouGov poll.

http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/09/when-the-push-polling-has-to-stop/

Those massive YouGov leads for No were all part of the Unionist tactic of making independence appear both uniquely impossible to Scotland, as opposed to any other small nation state you can name, and an unattainable dream. Too poor, too wee, too stupid and politically isolated. YouGov are known in the trade as “You Can Have Any Result You Pay For Gov”. For months, James Kelly on the Scot Goes Pop blog has brilliantly analysed the methodologies they employed to give those large No leads – asking prior leading questions, a large preponderance of Labour voters in their panel, and the “Kellner Correction” – an assumption that lies or faulty memory about how people last voted, would penalise Labour unless corrected for statistically. The result was YouGov polls that were great reading for the No camp, but made no sense whatsever to anybody who had talked to voters.

My own view is that there has not been an extraordinary 12 point swing in a fortnight, as illustrated by YouGov’s last two polls. What there has been is a continuing stead swing and a realisation in YouGov that, having helped the No campaign for over a year by trying to make a Yes vote seem hopeless, to be over 12% out on this vital vote might damage YouGov’s share price fatally. So they have had to start publishing something close to the truth.
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Paranoid ill-informed rubbish from the man who posted OMG the british military have overran the Ecuadorean embassy and have taken Assange into custody as i write this, i am literally watching it happen...
 
weepiper said:
Two of my neighbours (tenement block of 8 flats) put No Thanks posters up last week after a canvasser came round. They've taken them down again :hmm: I'd love to know whether it's because they've changed their minds but I don't know these particular two well enough to ask.
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Post a couple of Yes posters through their door and see what happens...
 
So, what are the predictions then? My instinct is the scare stories and 'devo max+' propaganda might just push enough yes voters back to don't knows/not voting that No will get it, say 47 - 53. It's a bit superficial to say there's a natural No majority which BT have fucked up and alienated, the movement of voters is much more complicated. However there must be an element in that recent 51% for Yes poll that is flaky. FWIW, if I had a vote, I'd put the much discussed 'anarcho-purity' aside and vote yes - to both piss Westminster off and piss off from Westminster. Just can't quite see it happening.
 
Wilf said:
So, what are the predictions then? My instinct is the scare stories and 'devo max+' propaganda might just push enough yes voters back to don't knows/not voting that No will get it, say 47 - 53. It's a bit superficial to say there's a natural No majority which BT have fucked up and alienated, the movement of voters is much more complicated. However there must be an element in that recent 51% for Yes poll that is flaky. FWIW, if I had a vote, I'd put the much discussed 'anarcho-purity' aside and vote yes - to both piss Westminster off and piss off from Westminster. Just can't quite see it happening.
Click to expand...


too close to call imo, its all going to be down to those pesky DK's. Even as early as three months back my heart said indy but evidence suggested otherwise. This narrowing of the poll though...also, 10 days can be a long time in etc
 
teuchter said:
Does anyone who is not danny la rouge know what time on the Thursday night of the polling day the results are expected to be in?
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They will come in much like a general election, with far flung places declaring later. "Early hours of the morning" is the best guess most will make, with one brave soul on STV boldly venturing "6am" at one point.

I'm up all night, me. With friends, drinking sensibly and shouting at the telly.
 
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