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Why the Guardian is going down the pan!


One evening, at a dinner party, I mentioned these events to a friend who is a mathematician, and he burst out laughing. “There are 400 tiles on the floor of this room; if I throw 100 grains of rice into the air, will I find,” he asked us, “five grains on any one tile?” We replied in the negative: there was only one grain for every four tiles: not enough to have five on a single tile.

Well you sound like a bit of an idiot and not someone who should be lecturing others on probability.

Also I don't believe this happened.
 



Well you sound like a bit of an idiot and not someone who should be lecturing others on probability.

Also I don't believe this happened.
it depends if they moved the table or not - if they didn't the probability alters significantly for the other tiles not covered by chairs or table
 
it depends if they moved the table or not - if they didn't the probability alters significantly for the other tiles not covered by chairs or table
Also fails to take into consideration the possibility of a through-breeze and an open window, and appears to make an unwarranted assumption that all the tiles are the same size.

No point in having statisticians if you don't balance them with twice as many pedants.

ETA: Twice as many or some other multiple.
 
And assumes there are 400 people in the building. Plus ignores Shewhart/Deming's statistical work on time-series data and special/common causes :rolleyes:

Eta. More accurate experiment would be to throw 400 each of say 30 different coloured grains of rice to represent 30 diseases they could have had and see how many tiles had five and only five of the colour representing that particular disease.
 
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Well you sound like a bit of an idiot and not someone who should be lecturing others on probability.

Also I don't believe this happened.
The author is a theoretical physicist specialising in quantum gravity. I would have expected him to at least understand the assumptions better and why they were wrong.

Something I observed working in a university many years ago - there's very clever people who have no concept of reality or common sense.
 
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