Which way would you vote in an EU referendum?

[toblerone3]

I'm in favour of staying in on the whole. The left in this country is in such a weak position, such a mess, that the EU influenced by the stronger left wing parties of northern Europe seems somewhat benign and protective. And the the interaction between normal people from European countries is also good in its own right in terms of preventing another European war and cultivating international friendships.

 

[butchersapron]

I'm in favour of staying in on the whole. The left in this country is in such a weak position, such a mess, that the EU influenced by the stronger left wing parties of northern Europe seems somewhat benign and protective. And the the interaction between normal people from European countries is also good in its own right in terms of preventing another European war and cultivating international friendships.

That's the left-wing parties of northern europe imposing austerity on the south - or some other ones? If these parties are such a benign influence why are the imposing poverty and austerity in Greece, in Spain, in Portgual and in Italy? Why are they insisting that these countries re-write their constitutions so they can't increase spending on social services and must sell off their existing public services? Did some of you lot just stop watching when the Sun did Up your Delors in the early 90s and decided the EU must be a good and haven't bothered keeping up with what it's actually doing since?

 

[sihhi]

I voted Yes but a non-EU Britain is seriously hard to imagine - it would involve reversing forty years of foreign policy, completely counter to US interests and wishes. British capital since 1966 and the Polaris decision under Macmillan in 1961 has essentially staked its world claim on the basis of being an 'independent' hidden pro-US voice within the EU. It would be a massive change in world politics if it happened.

It's an argument that the EU has no interest in strengthening or even upholding them - and so arguments that support the eu on the basis that it can and wants to do this fall.

Do arguments suggesting self-standing nation-states (outside of supra-national blocs) might give people a chance to more easily impose these rights make sense?

What has the Left-wing Red Norweigan government been doing to its oil workers - trying to destroy their pensions by compulsory arbitration, threats of lockout and sequestration to attack the working-class, militarising Svalbard against competitors for the Arctic prize, continuing its oil relationship with Sudan, which the EU too hastily weakened in order to support South Sudan, trying to build a military relationship with also non-EU, marginalised Serbia.

 

[toblerone3]

That's the left-wing parties of northern europe imposing austerity on the south - or some other ones? If these parties are such a benign influence why are the imposing poverty and austerity in Greece, in Spain, in Portgual and in Italy? Why are they insisting that these countries re-write their constitutions so they can't increase spending on social services and must sell off their existing public services? Did some of you lot just stop watching when the Sun did Up your Delors in the early 90s and decided the EU must be a good and haven't bothered keeping up with what it's actually doing since?

I don't think the austerity that the soft-right government in Germany is currently championing will last.

 

[butchersapron]

I voted Yes but a non-EU Britain is seriously hard to imagine - it would involve reversing forty years of foreign policy, completely counter to US interests and wishes. British capital since 1966 and the Polaris decision under Macmillan has essentially staked its world claim on the basis of being an 'independent' hidden pro-US voice within the EU. It would be a massive change in world politics if it happened.


Do arguments suggesting self-standing nation-states (outside of supra-national blocs) might give people a chance to more easily impose these rights make sense?

What has the Left-wing Red Norweigan government been doing to its oil workers - trying to destroy their pensions by compulsory arbitration, threats of lockout and sequestration to attack the working-class, militarising Svalbard against competitors for the Arctic prize, continuing its oil relationship with Sudan, which the EU too hastily weakened in order to support South Sudan, trying to build a military relationship with also non-EU, marginalised Serbia.

Saying it's massive doesn't mean that the dynamic and the hidden conflicts it might detonate or bring to the surface don't exist. Sure, it's not us doing it, but if we only act and can only act in situations that we have brought about and conscioulsy brought about then we would not have acted for the last few decades at all.


Come on mate, you know no one here is arguing for self-standing nation-states but for the grounds that might allow cross border attacks on self-standing nation-states and local victories as part of that. It's no good listing all the things that self-standing nation-states have done or are doing!

 

[butchersapron]

I don't think the austerity that the soft-right government in Germany is currently championing will last.

And the other ones that are pulling on the benign reins of eu austerity? Do they plan to stop their northern components of the EU eating up the workers, the unemployed, the unwaged and the immigrants in the south? If not, then what use is you not thinking that soft-austerity within germany will not last?

 

[sihhi]

Come on mate, you know no one here is arguing for self-standing nation-states but for the grounds that might allow cross border attacks on self-standing nation-states and local victories as part of that. It's no good listing all the things that self-standing nation-states have done or are doing!

You'll need to argue the above one out.

Cross-border attacks can happen whether Britain is a member of the EU or not. Czech miners who received much lower pay than British ones sent large ships worth of food during the 9 months of 1926, many cross-national supported strikes in the 1940s and 1950s on the mainland, European confederations were better blackers of firms that used Bristow Helicopters in the 1970s than the TUC ever was, Norweigian and British oil workers collaborated in cross-naval border strikes in the 1980s targetting wholly different management and pay schemes, Finnish paper workers were important in Wapping, dockworkers across Europe have been very supportive of many types of national strikes,

Forget the ultra-left nonsense that we don't take part in bosses battles - look at it as if a boss is trying to reorganise your workplace, or a council reorganise your area. When does it become your battle? When the bosses give you the go-ahead?

Are the ICC the only people in the country who will be abstaining (I've no doubt that they will be)?
You haven't really backed up the assertion that this is like a boss trying to reorganise your workplace.

Sure, it's not us doing it, but if we only act and can only act in situations that we have brought about and conscioulsy brought about then we would not have acted for the last few decades at all.

You're painting this referendum almost as if it is a defensive industrial struggle, like the ones over the past decades.
You seem to believe it could unleash practical meaningful consequences if there is a no vote.
I think its (yes to withdrawal vote) practical consequences will be as if there was a yes to AV vote - ie not very interesting and not mattering.

 

[butchersapron]

You'll need to argue the above one out.

Cross-border attacks can happen whether Britain is a member of the EU or not. Czech miners who received much lower pay than British ones sent large ships worth of food during the 9 months of 1926, many cross-national supported strikes in the 1940s and 1950s on the mainland, European confederations were better blackers of firms that used Bristow Helicopters in the 1970s than the TUC ever was, Norweigian and British oil workers collaborated in cross-naval border strikes in the 1980s targetting wholly different management and pay schemes, Finnish paper workers were important in Wapping, dockworkers across Europe have been very supportive of many types of national strikes,


Are the ICC the only people in the country who will be abstaining (I've no doubt that they will be)?
You haven't really backed up the assertion that this is like a boss trying to reorganise your workplace.



You're painting this referendum almost as if it is a defensive industrial struggle, like the ones over the past decades.
You seem to believe it could unleash practical meaningful consequences if there is a no vote.
I think its (yes to withdrawal vote) practical consequences will be as if there was a yes to AV vote - ie not very interesting and not mattering.

Of course they can, that's the point! Which isn't to say that supra-national entities don't and can't try to cut down on them - or that individual states don't or can't. Again, it's no good listing examples of both doing both!

Of course it's like a boss trying to reorganise your workplace, it's worse, it's them trying to reorganise your hospitals, your education, your leisure - that literally is what they are trying to do. That's why they exist - what else other than the above are they doing? How else are they going to compete with the US and Asia other than by doing just that? By increasing productivity, by cutting down workforces, by cutting down social spending, by forcing individuals to bear previously social costs.

I think UK withdrawal would kill the EU, and i think the death of the EU would kill the form of austerity the EU/IMF/ECB are pursuing right now stone dead, yes. That's a better vista than waiting for a pro-european/anti-eu europe wide left to slowly gain influence.

 

[Fez909]

Of course they can, that's the point! Which isn't to say that supra-national entities don't and can't try to cut down on them - or that individual states don't or can't. Again, it's no good listing examples of both doing both!

Of course it's like a boss trying to reorganise your workplace, it's worse, it's them trying to reorganise your hospitals, your education, your leisure - that literally is what they are trying to do. That's why they exist - what else other than the above are they doing? How else are they going to compete with the US and Asia other than by doing just that? By increasing productivity, by cutting down workforces, by cutting down social spending, by forcing individuals to bear previously social costs.

I think UK withdrawal would kill the EU, and i think the death of the EU would kill the form of austerity the EU/IMF/ECB are pursuing right now stone dead, yes. That's a better vista than waiting for a pro-european/anti-eu europe wide left to slowly gain influence.

Wouldn't the death of the Euro kill austerity as well, though? You're linking it to membership of the EU, but it's membership of the Eurozone that's the problem*. Countries who can print their own money and devalue the currency are able to ride these things out in a way that those in the Eurozone can't.

*I think. Are there any member of the EU, but not the Eurozone, who are having austerity imposed upon them by the EU? Britain's is self-imposed austerity, but I'm not sure about anyone else?

 

[J Ed]

My instinct is to vote for EU withdrawal on the basis that the Northern countries are essentially turning the 'periphery' (ugh) into dependent colonies through punitive austerity measures stacked in their favour, and that the next step is for them to do the same (well more of the same) to the disenfranchised majorities of their own countries. My feelings on this are complicated by the fact that clear majorities in the countries suffering most want not only to stay a part of the EU but also to continue to be in the Euro Zone. I suspect that that's both a hangover from the 20th Century dictatorships in Spain, Portugal and Greece and the association of the EU with transition to democracy and the feeling that as bad as the EU is it's preferable to their own corrupt politicians.

Also, while I would hope for something better, or at least concessions, I'm concerned that if British withdrawal did go ahead and bring down the whole edifice of the EU then something even worse would replace it.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Isn't that an argument for strengthening EU institutions?

No.

 

[J Ed]

*I think. Are there any member of the EU, but not the Eurozone, who are having austerity imposed upon them by the EU?

Yes. http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-05-13/business/39213934_1_finance-ministers-eu-commission-slovenian-government

Edit - I didn't realise that Slovenia was in the Euro Zone

 

[butchersapron]

Wouldn't the death of the Euro kill austerity as well, though? You're linking it to membership of the EU, but it's membership of the Eurozone that's the problem*. Countries who can print their own money and devalue the currency are able to ride these things out in a way that those in the Eurozone can't.

*I think. Are there any member of the EU, but not the Eurozone, who are having austerity imposed upon them by the EU? Britain's is self-imposed austerity, but I'm not sure about anyone else?

Hang on, are we in the eurozone? Are we currently facing austerity? Why is self-imposed austerity not a reaction to the same pressures as those in the eurozone? No, austerity is a function of neo-liberalism. The EU is the leading neo-liberal body on the continent. And, given that all other states have to join, you're only saying that the eu will impose austerity as soon as they do.

 

[Fez909]

Hang on, are we in the eurozone? Are we currently facing austerity? Why is self-imposed austerity not a reaction to the same pressures as those in the eurozone? No, austerity is a function of neo-liberalism. The EU is the leading neo-liberal body on the continent. And, given that all other states have to join, you're only saying that the eu will impose austerity as soon as they do.

Because the UK is not facing pressure from the EU to impose austerity; the Tories wanted it anyway. Greece doesn't want austerity but the German's are forcing it on them. I agree that the end result is the same, but Britain could choose not to go with austerity, Greece cannot. That's the difference.

 

[butchersapron]

Because the UK is not facing pressure from the EU to impose austerity; the Tories wanted it anyway. Greece doesn't want austerity but the German's are forcing it on them. I agree that the end result is the same, but Britain could choose not to go with austerity, Greece cannot. That's the difference.

So - let me get this right. The EU is the only reason that austerity is imposed (leave aside how wrong that is for now), so let's all vote to stay in the EU. Spot the problem?

 

[Fez909]

So - let me get this right. The EU is the only reason that austerity is imposed (leave aside how wrong that is for now), so let's all vote to stay in the EU. Spot the problem?

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying membership of the EU is not the main reason why Greece is facing austerity. If they did not use the Euro, then they could be members of the EU and not be forced by Germany to run an austerity programme.

 

[butchersapron]

That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying membership of the EU is not the main reason why Greece is facing austerity. If they did not use the Euro, then they could be members of the EU and not be forced by Germany to run an austerity programme.

You literally just said that it was. All EU states but UK and denmark and all other new entry countries must be part of the eurozone. They must then be prime material for austerity, be subject to austerity (and it's not a german thing either, it's a capital thing)

 

[Wilf]

Yep, neo liberalism and capitalism are the problem. The EU is neo-liberal, so don't have expectations that it can save us from itself. As always, every settlement creates spaces, alliances, different contexts, things that can be achieved, but the EU can only ultimately deliver things that work for capital. There'll be times when I'd prefer some thing the EU dished up to some other thing you'd have to have if you weren't in it, but that's not the point.

 

[frogwoman]

I reckon it's necessary to mention the fundamentals.

Capital has tolerated the EU because it prevents any of the member states adopting either fascist (NSDAP) or Stalinist/Leninist policies.

That is why Stalinists and Leninists oppose it. It kills their dreams of running the workers' dictatorship for us. (I am surprised at some of those lining up with them.)

The trade off was sort-of social democratic: regulated capitalism.

That is: privatisation on the one hand; and Working Time, Health and Safety, introducing friction into hire-and-fire and consulting trades unions and stuff on the other.

So it explicitly rules out a workers' paradise; and equally it rules out Mexican maquiladoras and, in theory, Bangladeshi sweatshops.

Unless you expect the imminent overthrow of capitalism, you're asked to accept the trade-off as better than a slap in the face.

I disagree with you that capital "tolerates" the EU, the majority of the capitalist class of France and Germany (as well as others, but from my understanding, they are the driving force behind it, although Im sure someone can correct me) are absolutely committed to the european project, as a way of maintaining their influence in europe and also to some extent for the reason you mentioned.

I dont agree that the EU prevents sweatshops etc, the last 20 years have seen a decline in living standards and a return to conditions in europe thought never to be seen again, the EU is actually driving down the wages of workers and imposing fiscal conditions on states attempting to join which amount to even more austerity.

 

[Fez909]

You literally just said that it was. All EU states but UK and denmark and all other new entry countries must be part of the eurozone. They must then be prime material for austerity, be subject to austerity (and it's not a german thing either, it's a capital thing)

I did not say that.

Anyway, I agree its a capital thing. British capital is safe from a devaluation of the Euro, but German capital is not. Which is why Greece is facing pressure from Germany and Britain is not. If Greece had its own currency, it could have printed more money to pay its workers and spend its way out of recession without begging the ECB and having austerity imposed as a condition. Then when the inevitably devaluation of the Greek currency occurred, capital would have moved in to take advantage of the cheap labour.

This can't happen with the Euro.

 

[frogwoman]

Also I have no doubt that the EU would impose extreme-right policies (in some states they already have moved significantly towards the far-right, with laws which are basically targetted at muslims, immigrants and so on, as well as the fact that for example the rhetoric about benefit claimants ends up being aimed at people with disabilities etc who are targets of the far right) and tolerate policies which amounted to the same thing as a fascist state does within its borders if they thought it would maintain "stability", look at golden dawn and jobbik in the european parliament, look at some of the things which have been taking place in Greece, extreme police brutality, people being shot, people being driven into conditions thought unthinkable in a "european" country.

I would vote to leave the EU, that doesnt mean I like Farage etc, it just means I really dislike the EU and I am continually surprised how some people on the left view it as a force for good when it obviously isn't.

 

[butchersapron]

I did not say that.

Anyway, I agree its a capital thing. British capital is safe from a devaluation of the Euro, but German capital is not. Which is why Greece is facing pressure from Germany and Britain is not. If Greece had its own currency, it could have printed more money to pay its workers and spend its way out of recession without begging the ECB and having austerity imposed as a condition. Then when the inevitably devaluation of the Greek currency occurred, capital would have moved in to take advantage of the cheap labour.

This can't happen with the Euro.

Yes, you did - you said the eurozone imposes austerity - apart from the UK and Denmark, there is no way to be in the EU and not the eurozone.

So the way out of austerity is to leave the eurozone which means leaving the eu. But everyone should def stay in the EU for the ECHR

 

[Fez909]

Yes, you did - you said the eurozone imposes austerity - apart from the UK and Denmark, there is no way to be in the EU and not the eurozone.

So the way out of austerity is to leave the eurozone which means leaving the eu. But everyone should def stay in the EU for the ECHR

There are 10 nations in the EU which are not in the Eurozone, so it's clearly possible.

 

[butchersapron]

There are 10 nations in the EU which are not in the Eurozone, so it's clearly possible.

The two i mentioned and the eight now obliged to - the ones with the austerity already frozen in and to be maintained by the eu. Lovely.

 

[Fez909]

The two i mentioned and the eight now obliged to - the ones with the austerity already frozen in and to be maintained by the eu. Lovely.

I didn't know they were obliged to be part of the Euro. Hmm. Although Sweden claims a de-facto opt-out because ERMII is necessary before joining the Euro, and ERMII is voluntary. Czech Rep are in the same boat, and no doubt others. But yeah, I didn't know that.

Has Czech Rep or Romania or Latvia (or any the others) had austerity imposed upon them by the EU?

 

[butchersapron]

I didn't know they were obliged to be part of the Euro. Hmm. Although Sweden claims a de-facto opt-out because ERMII is necessary before joining the Euro, and ERMII is voluntary. Czech Rep are in the same boat, and no doubt others. But yeah, I didn't know that.

Has Czech Rep or Romania or Latvia (or any the others) had austerity imposed upon them by the EU?

They can't have remember - as they are not part of the eurozone

And yeah damn right they have.

 

[laptop]

I disagree with you that capital "tolerates" the EU, the majority of the capitalist class of France and Germany ...

I meant capital worldwide; specifically, the EU could not have grown up without the tolerance of US-based capital.

You joined a Leninist party, didn't you?

 

[Fez909]

They can't have remember - as they are not part of the eurozone

And yeah damn right they have.

From your link:

The Romanian government - unlike the government of neighbouring Hungary, where there have also been anti-government protests - has done everything that the EU and international lenders have demanded of it.

Why haven't Hungary been forced to impose austerity by the EU?

 

[free spirit]

That's the left-wing parties of northern europe imposing austerity on the south - or some other ones? If these parties are such a benign influence why are the imposing poverty and austerity in Greece, in Spain, in Portgual and in Italy? Why are they insisting that these countries re-write their constitutions so they can't increase spending on social services and must sell off their existing public services? Did some of you lot just stop watching when the Sun did Up your Delors in the early 90s and decided the EU must be a good and haven't bothered keeping up with what it's actually doing since?

in what way do you think that britain leaving the EU would change that?

We're actually currently one of the main driving forces behind austerity and doing it entirely voluntarily, so it's not like leaving Europe would have any impact on that side of things in the UK.

The EU has definitely made a huge mistake with it's handling of this debt crisis - turning something better described as a minor issue into a massive international crisis, but that doesn't mean that the EU institution itself is at fault to the degree that it must be abandoned. By far the best way of solving these problems would be via an about face by the EU, and refocussing on spending to promote economic growth into those countries.

If the EU falls apart entirely, those countries would then be left entirely to their own devices to sort themselves out, which from the position they're now in would be incredibly difficult for them - they can't now just go out and borrow to invest themselves on the international markets, so they need the EU to change it's stance and do the borrowing and investing.

The reality of the situation IMO is that the EU are struggling to make the Euro work across the continent, and basically having to make the economic policies up as they go along to try to keep it all working. They've obviously fucked that right up, but that doesn't necessarily mean that abandoning the entire project is the best response to the situation.

 

[sihhi]

Of course they can, that's the point! Which isn't to say that supra-national entities don't and can't try to cut down on them - or that individual states don't or can't. Again, it's no good listing examples of both doing both!

Of course it's like a boss trying to reorganise your workplace, it's worse, it's them trying to reorganise your hospitals, your education, your leisure - that literally is what they are trying to do. That's why they exist - what else other than the above are they doing? How else are they going to compete with the US and Asia other than by doing just that? By increasing productivity, by cutting down workforces, by cutting down social spending, by forcing individuals to bear previously social costs.

I am saying that Norway which never joined the EU is increasing productivity, cutting down workforces, cutting social spending, forcing individuals to bear previously social costs. The struggle at Statoil and other oil firms is all about austerity. I'm no expert on it - but have read of it on wsws The Norweigan conservatives poised to win the election (after a union sellout and abstention from Labour Party, sound familiar?) are in favour of even deeper austerity.
I don't know too much about Greenland's politics - the only territory to have left the EU, in 1982 - but its politics are split around a risky extension of oil exploration with further environmental damage or deepening austerity. That's it:- austerity for future generations or for present ones. At the same time Denmark is trying (but failing) to impose more of the costs of defense/militarisation onto Greenland.
The EU aspect doesn't matter as much the austerity itself does.

I think UK withdrawal would kill the EU, and i think the death of the EU would kill the form of austerity the EU/IMF/ECB are pursuing right now stone dead, yes.

This is a fantasy dream, what happened when France voted no to new constitution in 2005 - left spent ages and lots of resources arguing the case there - nothing much different.

The IMF has nothing to do with the EU, it will exist whatever happens in an in-out referendum on the IMF, with Britain as 4.3% of its voting power, it will release or block the flow of SDRs as it sees fit.
Wrong building up the EU into a body independent of the IMF - the 4 biggest economies in the EU: Germany France UK Italy hold 18.4% of its voting rights. The EU does for Europe what the IMF thinks and doesn't do directly.

So Greece receives EU medicine in this 2009- crisis, whilst Turkey received IMF medicine in the 1999- crisis.
Prove to me the actual difference between the two, why the latter option is unsustainable why the first is crucial and indispensable.

Once Britain leaves, already civil servants will have prepared a back-up option for Britain's new bloc on leaving the EU, almost certainly by trying to EU-ify EFTA which Britain will almost certainly join and mostly be welcomed into.



Comparison. As you have slated people as ultra-lefts: Are you encouraging a vote in favour of Cornish nationalism whenever you get the chance? The rise of Cornish nationalism would be a body-blow to the concept of England, a real stake in the heart of the kind of austerity the United Kingdom is imposing, it would accelerate Scottish pro-independence nationalism leading to a yes vote for end of the UK as it exists now, the UK would not survive.

Austerity doesn't need the EU, the EU needs austerity.
If you have enough anti-austerity action within it, the Euro will start cracking or hyper-inflating, leading to intolerable stresses and separation.[/quote]