Volcano and Earthquake watch
- Thread starter xes
- Start date
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
This morning's inspection of the webcams suggest that the smaller fissure that opened within 100m or so of Grindavik has currently ceased erupting - the lava has probably stopped moving, although it may creep a bit under gravity - depends how steep the slope is underneath.
I think Grindavik may have lost about three houses at this point.
[I think it was the BBC that suggested one of them wasn't occupied - in use as a home - even prior to the evacuations]
I think Grindavik may have lost about three houses at this point.
[I think it was the BBC that suggested one of them wasn't occupied - in use as a home - even prior to the evacuations]
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes there was an interview on Icelandic news sites with the owner of that first home that was hit - they had been constructing it for years but never got to move in, their moving in plans originally having been thwarted by the evacuations last year.
Yes 3 houses was the last count I saw. I could only see 2 of them being consumed for myself as then the view became obstructed by the fire and smoke, and then it got dark. Luckily I think that after consuming those homes the lava mostly flowed into an empty gap between sets of houses/roads, land that nothing had been built on. If that system had remained active for longer then it would have reached another road and houses further south, and I'll need to wait for new imagery to see exactly how far I got, but theres every chance it stopped before then.
That smaller fissure had stopped by the time I went to bed last night. And the other, longer one is doing much less as of this morning, the active portion has shrunk to a very small zone. The eruption back in December also faded quite quickly in this way.
Yes 3 houses was the last count I saw. I could only see 2 of them being consumed for myself as then the view became obstructed by the fire and smoke, and then it got dark. Luckily I think that after consuming those homes the lava mostly flowed into an empty gap between sets of houses/roads, land that nothing had been built on. If that system had remained active for longer then it would have reached another road and houses further south, and I'll need to wait for new imagery to see exactly how far I got, but theres every chance it stopped before then.
That smaller fissure had stopped by the time I went to bed last night. And the other, longer one is doing much less as of this morning, the active portion has shrunk to a very small zone. The eruption back in December also faded quite quickly in this way.
elbows
Well-Known Member
An image from an excellent drone stream yesterday that illustrates that situation with the houses before darkness fell.
At this stage 2 or 3 houses had been consumed, and you can see the gap I mentioned (the lava heading directly towards the drone camera is in that gap). If it didnt spread much further then there only 1 or two more houses that might or might not have been lost later on, but I havent seem images of this area for today yet.
At this stage 2 or 3 houses had been consumed, and you can see the gap I mentioned (the lava heading directly towards the drone camera is in that gap). If it didnt spread much further then there only 1 or two more houses that might or might not have been lost later on, but I havent seem images of this area for today yet.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Seems to have flowed down into a natural hollow - probably would have been heading for the harbour, eventually. But, after crossing that road there are more homes in the way. e2a - the toe still seems to be moving very slightly / slowly, assuming the webcam is at the same zoom / angle as earlier. It is degassing - little spurts of white vapour, which disperse in the breeze.
Waiting for the next IMO update, hopefully today.
Now it is more like daylight I'm going to watch more webcams ... or drone footage.
Waiting for the next IMO update, hopefully today.
Now it is more like daylight I'm going to watch more webcams ... or drone footage.
Last edited:
elbows
Well-Known Member
Unless some new event occurs, which is probably less likely now for a while, the webcams are going to be pretty dull today compared to yesterday. So one drone sweep of that part of town is all I'm waiting for today.
I'm jumping the gun slightly compared to authorities, but I'd say they have weathered the initial storm and the large viability risks for the town have gone back to being more about key infrastructure damage and loss of confidence about the medium-long term viability and safety of the town given that events in this region may stretch on for years to come.
And yeah, that gap that it flowed into is somethat depressed and I believe also follows a fault line that stretches much further into town and that is also often not built upon further south/west too.
I'm jumping the gun slightly compared to authorities, but I'd say they have weathered the initial storm and the large viability risks for the town have gone back to being more about key infrastructure damage and loss of confidence about the medium-long term viability and safety of the town given that events in this region may stretch on for years to come.
And yeah, that gap that it flowed into is somethat depressed and I believe also follows a fault line that stretches much further into town and that is also often not built upon further south/west too.
elbows
Well-Known Member
In terms of what further damage to that area I expect to see today via any useful drone flight, I think judging by some night time drone footage, the minimum is that what I will describe as the 'vacant lot with white building materials stored on it' got burnt after the period in the screenshot I posted earlier.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Seems that the active fountaining is confined to the middle / further end of the initial fissure - but I think that this phase of the activity may stop soon. IIRC December's eruption was only a couple of days or so. [unlike the three previous eruptions around Geldingaldur - although the last one at "Little Ram" was very short, about a month, actually the second was about the same length].
2hats
Dust.
It could be worth considering this... (TLDR: this might be the onset of a new eruptive episode on the peninsula which could last a few centuries).
nitter.woodland.cafe
DOI:10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118378
Dr. Judith Hubbard (@JudithGeology)
Today, I am reading Caracciolo et al. (2023): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118378 In the "Reykjanes Peninsula ... there have been three 400-500 years long eruptive cycles in the last 4000 years at time intervals of about 800 years." The last cycle is illustrated in their Fig 1 and... 1/
nitter.woodland.cafe
Last edited:
elbows
Well-Known Member
It could be worth considering this... (TLDR: this might be the onset of a new eruptive episode on the peninsula which could last a few centuries).
Dr. Judith Hubbard (@JudithGeology)
Today, I am reading Caracciolo et al. (2023): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118378 In the "Reykjanes Peninsula ... there have been three 400-500 years long eruptive cycles in the last 4000 years at time intervals of about 800 years." The last cycle is illustrated in their Fig 1 and... 1/
Yeah that sort of backdrop is why theres not much optimism about the viability of the town moving forwards.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Thanks 2hats - very interesting.
Since the mid-Atlantic rift is still moving, they're not wrong.
Iceland will continue to have eruptions.
Will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months / years.
I'm expecting a few, scrub that; make it, a lot of short eruptions.
Will be informative if the Svartsengi area continues to inflate, indicating more magma accumulating.
At least these are of the almost ash-free variety and mostly safe enough for tourism.
IIRC, Grimsvotn[sp?] is showing signs of a sub-glacial eruption atm - increased melt-water flows.
If that breaks through the ice, we could have some ash production as well as significant flooding.
Since the mid-Atlantic rift is still moving, they're not wrong.
Iceland will continue to have eruptions.
Will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months / years.
I'm expecting a few, scrub that; make it, a lot of short eruptions.
Will be informative if the Svartsengi area continues to inflate, indicating more magma accumulating.
At least these are of the almost ash-free variety and mostly safe enough for tourism.
IIRC, Grimsvotn[sp?] is showing signs of a sub-glacial eruption atm - increased melt-water flows.
If that breaks through the ice, we could have some ash production as well as significant flooding.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
maybe a (short) move eastwards ?
[to get onto older structures and off the active rifts]
RubyToogood
RubyTwobikes
I never heard what happened with the bloke who fell down the fissure. Did they abandon the rescue attempt?
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Looking at the webcams this morning, the only things I can see are fumaroles / gas emissions.
Can't tell if the lava flows are still moving.
Late last night one cam was centred on a small [?] splatter cone ...
Would it be premature to say this eruption is over ?
Can't tell if the lava flows are still moving.
Late last night one cam was centred on a small [?] splatter cone ...
Would it be premature to say this eruption is over ?
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
I wonder if they might have another search, if the eruption / 'quake swarm subsides ?
Perhaps with remotes / drones ?
2hats
Dust.
They conducted a fairly thorough search (100+ persons), at great risk to themselves, including opening up the fissure, then survey use of 3D scanning and a mini submarine. It looks likely that he fell into an underground river (the fissure was even larger than it appeared, dropping to groundwater levels, which were deep enough to exhibit tidal influence). Quite possibly he was subsequently swept out to sea (though likely suffered from blunt force trauma and/or drowning in the early stages).
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Good Grief !
I wasn't aware of those details, although I knew that the search had been quite extensive.
Poor guy.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
The IMO update for this morning [11:45 on 16Jan2024] ...
en.vedur.is
News | Icelandic Meteorological office
T & P
|-o-| (-o-) |-o-|
I was recently in Lanzarote, which last saw an eruption exactly two hundred years ago, yet in some areas the temperature reaches 300C a mere five metres below the surface. I don’t doubt science can easily explain it, but it’s funny how in some locations a new eruption occurs without warning where there had been no more signs of being a volcanic-prone area than central London, and in others you can set a stick on fire by simply pushing it through a crack in the rocks, yet fuck all has happened for centuries.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Is that actually true, are there any examples of that?
This isnt a subject I know very much about but all the examples I do know are from areas that are known for volcanic activity. How 'peaceful' a volcano may have been considered to be before it came alive may vary a lot, the amount of warning of increased activity may vary a lot, but have there really been any eruptions in areas where no volcanic activity was suspected in this period of history at all? From what I read the UK hasnt had an active volcano for over 50 million years, so if we did have an eruption then that would certainly count, but are there actually any examples at all of such a thing happening in the modern era?
T & P
|-o-| (-o-) |-o-|
Well, perhaps every volcanically active or recently active area does have similar characteristics, but I am not aware of any others. All of the Canary Islands are of volcanic origin, and several of them have actual extinct volcano calderas peppering their geography, but I am not aware of anywhere in Tenerife or La Palma where you can use the heat from under your feet to cook (see El Diablo ) or pour a jug of water into a pipe going down just a few metres to immediately see an explosive jet of steam shoot back up, as seen in Lanzarote’s Timanfaya National Park to this day.
Yet La Palma experienced a massive two-month eruption last year. I guess it’s as simple an answer as sitting on top of different and unconnected magma chambers with different pressure characteristics. But even so I still find it curious you have one island where for the last two hundred years since the last eruption the chamber underneath has remained active enough to cook your arm in seconds if you were to stick it down a rock fissure at certain places but has not had even the slightest hint of a new eruption, while a nearby island that has been completely dormant suddenly spills out millions of tons of lava without warning.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm ignorant about the locations in question, I will try to learn more about this interesting subject!
I do see that many eruptions are not without warning. There are a couple of eruption types that can happen without warning, but a lot do thankfully give classic warning signs that humans can use to reduce the risk to people. Particular types of massively increased earthquake activity are often a big clue that can be used. This has been the case in Iceland recently, and I've just looked up that La Palma eruption you mentioned and apparently there were 22,000 earthquakes over about a week leading up to the eruption. So they were able to raise volcanic alert levels 6 days before that eruption.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Personally, I think the days of a mountain being an unidentified dormant volcano and bursting back into life without warnings are long gone.
The international network of seismographs would soon pick-up an earthquake swarm and pinpoint the active area.
Also, most zones with volcanic activity are studied - some very closely indeed, and as has been seen in Iceland & some parts of Indonesia, the science of forecasting eruptions has been improving.
When I was at school, the eruption of Surtsey & Eldfell [ around the Westman Islands in the 1960s and 1973 ] seemed to be somewhat unexpected, but modern scientific methods - lots of sensitive seismometers etc and gps/satellite based data means that'll not happen again.
The international network of seismographs would soon pick-up an earthquake swarm and pinpoint the active area.
Also, most zones with volcanic activity are studied - some very closely indeed, and as has been seen in Iceland & some parts of Indonesia, the science of forecasting eruptions has been improving.
When I was at school, the eruption of Surtsey & Eldfell [ around the Westman Islands in the 1960s and 1973 ] seemed to be somewhat unexpected, but modern scientific methods - lots of sensitive seismometers etc and gps/satellite based data means that'll not happen again.
elbows
Well-Known Member
A good example of a raised alert level happened today:
Lots more detail on that page.
Lots more detail on that page.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Also on the subject of advanced notice, when it comes to the one in Iceland thats erupted near the town a few times in recent months, here is a computer translation of part of their latest update:
From google translation of Auknar líkur á eldgosi | Fréttir | Veðurstofa Íslands
From google translation of Auknar líkur á eldgosi | Fréttir | Veðurstofa Íslands
Similar threads
