Volcano and Earthquake watch

[StoneRoad]

Also on the subject of advanced notice, when it comes to the one in Iceland thats erupted near the town a few times in recent months, here is a computer translation of part of their latest update:





From google translation of Auknar líkur á eldgosi | Fréttir | Veðurstofa Íslands

Not going to argue with that -
Personally, I had already estimated that another eruption was likely, somewhere along the line of the long dyke that was intruded last year, I'm guessing sometime in the first two weeks of February ...

 

[teqniq]

 

[StoneRoad]

So, I win my little bet with myself ...

There was only about 30 mins warning ! the fissure is about 3 km in length and in a very similar area to the one on 18th Dec 2023.
Lava fountains estimated at 50 to 60m and overflows heading west(ish) - which may test the protections around the power station.
Predicted to last approx 80 hours based on estimated magma accumulations.

web feeds

Iceland - Live stream from volcano in Reykjanes

Multible live and still webcams from the eruption in Rekjanes close to Grindavík

eruption.acme.to

 

[elbows]

So the early warning in Hawaii didnt result in an eruption this time, but the Iceland data and resulting warnings did do their job again. Its obviously not ideal to only get short final notice of the Iceland one, but the broader warning that something would likely happen within days certainly helped.

It already seems to be waning, although I saw something suggests it did reach and cross the road (quite a bit further north than last time it reached the road) and was then following next to another road that goes to the blue lagoon. But I am some hours out of date on that.

 

[elbows]

Although activity has declined, in one section of the eruption (northern section by the sounds of latest breaking news on this) something different has happened in the last half hour or so.

I dont know what Im talking about but a geologist who was livestreaming when this happened things it could be an interaction with groundwater that has kicked up steam and ash, possible creating some smaller explosive events that are obscured by these other clouds of stuff.



From this livestream:

 

[elbows]

And this is the geologist I mentioned:

 

[StoneRoad]

So the early warning in Hawaii didnt result in an eruption this time, but the Iceland data and resulting warnings did do their job again. Its obviously not ideal to only get short final notice of the Iceland one, but the broader warning that something would likely happen within days certainly helped.

It already seems to be waning, although I saw something suggests it did reach and cross the road (quite a bit further north than last time it reached the road) and was then following next to another road that goes to the blue lagoon. But I am some hours out of date on that.

Iceland have been lucky with this one, I think.
The early lava seems very fast-moving [500m/hr has been reported] but it looks like the land slopes ... it appears to be following the road towards the Blue Lagoon. Also, it may damage the hot-water supply pipes that go to Fitir later today.

e2a - it's been chucking out tephra this morning - the image I saw [on RUV] looked very glassy & full of bubbles.

The brown clouds could be carrying some ash [tephra] - it's possible that's from the damaged water pipeline rather than groundwater / deep snow.

 

[elbows]

Iceland have been lucky with this one, I think.
The early lava seems very fast-moving [500m/hr has been reported] but it looks like the land slopes ... it appears to be following the road towards the Blue Lagoon. Also, it may damage the hot-water supply pipes that go to Fitir later today.

Due to declining magma output it might have run out of momentum before getting too close to that pipe.

 

[elbows]

Alternatively it already just breached that pipe before running out of momentum but available camera angles havent allowed us to see that happening.

Or I suppose its possible that its been seen on camera but people didnt know what they were looking at.

 

[StoneRoad]

Alternatively it already just breached that pipe before running out of momentum but available camera angles havent allowed us to see that happening.

I suspect that's what has happened.
I'll check the RUV news feed in a minute to see if it's been updated.

e2a elbows - yes, that's confirmed - in the topline text and an aerial shot as well on their feed.

Hjáveitulögn rofnaði - kalt verður í híbýlum næstu daga - RÚV.is

Eldgos hófst á Reykjanesskaga klukkan rúmlega sex að morgni 8. febrúar.Það var kraftmikið í upphafi en mjög dró úr því síðdegis þann dag.Meginvirkni gossins var í þremur gígum, en tveir þeirra virðast hafa runnið saman í einn.Hraunstraumurinn fór yfir Njarðvíkuræð sem sér íbúum á Suðurnesjum...

www.ruv.is

 

[elbows]

I suspect that's what has happened.
I'll check the RUV news feed in a minute to see if it's been updated.

e2a elbows - yes, that's confirmed - in the topline text and an aerial shot as well on their feed.

Hjáveitulögn rofnaði - kalt verður í híbýlum næstu daga - RÚV.is

Eldgos hófst á Reykjanesskaga klukkan rúmlega sex að morgni 8. febrúar.Það var kraftmikið í upphafi en mjög dró úr því síðdegis þann dag.Meginvirkni gossins var í þremur gígum, en tveir þeirra virðast hafa runnið saman í einn.Hraunstraumurinn fór yfir Njarðvíkuræð sem sér íbúum á Suðurnesjum...

www.ruv.is

Thanks.

I think they've even got a video where you can see what happened when the magma penetrated the pipe.

It was about an hour ago on that page and google translate turns the heading for that section into 'Video of the lava passing over Njarðvíkuræð'

 

[elbows]

You can sense the fear in various updates due to knock on consequences such as people turning from hot water to electricity for heating, and the inability of their grid to cope with that sudden new level of electricity demand. Not to mention localised issues with power lines from the power plant facing constraints due to hot lava being in the vicinity.

It sounds like they are already working on a new pipeline but there will still be difficult days ahead.

 

[StoneRoad]

You can sense the fear in various updates due to knock on consequences such as people turning from hot water to electricity for heating, and the inability of their grid to cope with that sudden new level of electricity demand. Not to mention localised issues with power lines from the power plant facing constraints due to hot lava being in the vicinity.

It sounds like they are already working on a new pipeline but there will still be difficult days ahead.

Apparently, the new hot-water main is almost ready to be connected, but it will take a couple of days ...
and one of the power lines is shut down / about to be cut by lava.
People have already bought up the bottled gas supplies ...

They are definitely going to have a few difficult hours / days ahead.

Observations are suggesting that the fissure is turning into at least three "craters" with the flow already diminishing.
The eruption was predicted to be 80 hours, but I think it may well be less.

 

[elbows]

Yeah, I dont pay so much attention to duration estimates, and the previous eruption didnt last long either.

 

[elbows]

I think this live cam caught several moments of the pipeline getting ruined, looking back about 3 and a half and 3 and a quarters hours from right now.

timestamps of the first clock on the bottom of the feed itself are 11:54 and 12:08 for these events.

 

[StoneRoad]

The noon overflight today [9th] saw no evidence of eruptive activity and the area / volume under Svertsengi (sp?) power station has "deflated" according to the radar satellite ...

so, I think this one is over ...

 

[StoneRoad]

Apparently, the new hot-water main is almost ready to be connected, but it will take a couple of days ...
and one of the power lines is shut down / about to be cut by lava.
People have already bought up the bottled gas supplies ...

They are definitely going to have a few difficult hours / days ahead.

Observations are suggesting that the fissure is turning into at least three "craters" with the flow already diminishing.
The eruption was predicted to be 80 hours, but I think it may well be less.

The first attempt at reconnection of the hot water pipes didn't work for long, so they're having another go ...

The excavator / dumper drivers have balls of steel - currently [afternoon 10th Feb 2024] they have been laying temporary routes to restore road access - over the top of lava flows !

 

[elbows]

The first attempt at reconnection of the hot water pipes didn't work for long, so they're having another go ...

I didnt have time to look at what happened properly, but the vague impression I got was that they had buried a spare section of pipe before the lava flow reached that area. And then once the flow had stopped in the area, connected that section to the original pipe further downpipe. But then the spare buried pipe only worked for a few hours before being damaged by the heat of the lava some meters above it?

 

[StoneRoad]

I didnt have time to look at what happened properly, but the vague impression I got was that they had buried a spare section of pipe before the lava flow reached that area. And then once the flow had stopped in the area, connected that section to the original pipe further downpipe. But then the spare buried pipe only worked for a few hours before being damaged by the heat of the lava some meters above it?

That's my assumption - either heat or weight ...

Apparently, the pipeline route will be over the new lava ... needs to be the shortest route, but will sill take about a week ? The problem is there aren't many alternatives for the people living in the areas that have had their district heating / hot water cut off. Not enough capacity in the electricity system, nor bottled gas / hot air blowers ...

 

[elbows]

It sounds like their subsequent pipe repair mission was more successful than that first attempt, and faster than planned. I think the hot water is flowing again.

However the news I saw isnt very detailed and could be misinterpreted by me, and I know there was also a temporary mission that involved hot water transported by tankers, so Im not 100% sure.

 

[elbows]

I found a second news source and am a bit more confident about the detail now.

Hot water is flowing into the water tanks

Water is now flowing into HS Orka hot-water tanks in Fitjar, but the construction of the new Njarðvík bypass hot water pipeline was expected to take place last night, is stated in an announcement from HS Orka.

icelandmonitor.mbl.is

Hot water is coming!

The people of Suðurnes can expect hot water to start flowing to their houses by noon today.

icelandmonitor.mbl.is

 

[elbows]

What it seems that source of news was absolutely not good at was providing any news stories about the first replacement pipe having failed, would never know that happened if I relied only on them.

 

[elbows]

If there are similar situations in future then I can probably use the facebook page of the energy company for info. Putting it here for future reference. HS Orka | Grindavík

Unlike the news site I mentioned, they did post when things went wrong with the first (buried) backup pipe too. But since we are reliant on computer translation the quality of the info varies a lot from one post to the next. Some translated posts are great, but for example the translation of the post where things went wrong with the first replacement pipe was especially bad/unintended comedy:

THE HAVING LAWN UNDER THE LAVA GONE FOR A SWIM
A water pipe along the Njarðvík river broke apart under the middle of a lava around 1 pm. 10:30 pm tonight and therefore she no longer carries hot water to Reykjanesbær. Supposedly, the law of the lava drain was eased yesterday morning and late tonight, when the water pumping was increased, it seems to have smiled for good. The location is under the middle of lava, on the section where it is thickest, and therefore it is impossible to attack repairs there.
Preparations have begun for the laying of a new law in close cooperation with the Public Defense, but it is clear that the implementation will take a few days. Exact timing cannot be estimated at this moment.

 

[2hats]

Svartsengi GPS data indicates that ground uplift of around 5-10mm/day (similar to the prelude to the previous eruptions) has resumed, implying that the magma chamber is likely refilling. Consequently, anticipate another eruption in the coming days/weeks.

​

Source: Veðurstofa Íslands update.

 

[StoneRoad]

C&P direct from IMO site [updated 15Feb2024] ... Magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi continues | News | Icelandic Meteorological office

Land uplift at Svartsengi area continues at similar trends and rates as has been detected following dyke propagations from there.

Model calculations based on GPS data suggest that magma accumulation from the end of the eruption 9th of February until yesterday, 14th of February, is about 2 million m3. It was estimated that when the eruption began on the 8th of February, about 10 million m3 of magma propagated from Svartsengi towards Sundhnúkur crater row. If magma accumulation continues at same rate, a total of 10 million m3 will be accumulated by the end of February or beginning of March, by which time likelihood of dyke propagation and volcanic eruption will increase significantly. These model calculations are based on GPS data but will be updated when new satellite data comes in.

I give it 2 1/2 to three weeks before another eruption, based on the current rates of magma accumulation / uplift under Svertsengi - which seems similar to before the last two events.

 

[petee]

 

[StoneRoad]

Interesting IMO update ...
They estimate that the magma reservoir is about half full and depending on the developments within the dyke / sill conduit system there could be an eruption as early as next week. Some details on various scenarios.

News | Icelandic Meteorological office

en.vedur.is

 

[StoneRoad]

New update from IMO - Not quite "stand by your beds" but the magma reservoir appears to be continuing to fill and some small 'quakes indicate an eruption could happen, sooner rather than later !

News | Icelandic Meteorological office

en.vedur.is

 

[elbows]

Took a while but has finally kicked off in Iceland again.

 

[elbows]

Lots of impressive cam footage showing impressive flows at night in various directions including west and south, and there was a live helicopter video for ages earlier too.