purves grundy
ambient clown remix
Ahh thanks!!! I've escaped the water and heat-like-treacle - and Cameron - for three weeks in Europe and UK instead 
Very interesting times in Burma
- Thread starter purves grundy
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Minnie_the_Minx
someinenhhanding menbag and me ah bollox
Ahh thanks!!! I've escaped the water and heat-like-treacle - and Cameron - for three weeks in Europe and UK instead
oh, didn't realise you were here
When are you returning?
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
Yeah, that's why I've been posting a bit more often than usual (making the most of the holidays, y'see). Won't be back until early Mayoh, didn't realise you were here
When are you returning?
It really isn't easy at the moment - stifling hot and power cuts of 6 or more hours every day. At night with no aircon, it's almost unbearable. Hopefully the rains will have started a little at least by the time I'm back.
Minnie_the_Minx
someinenhhanding menbag and me ah bollox
Yeah, that's why I've been posting a bit more often than usual (making the most of the holidays, y'see). Won't be back until early May
Sod that. I can do without aircon but not a fan!
So where are you stopping over on the way back?
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
It was just going to be Bkk then Yangon, but now I find I've got to delay going back to Ygn for 2 days work in... in... in... ah, you know where. And I'll try my utmost to make it there this timeSod that. I can do without aircon but not a fan!
So where are you stopping over on the way back?
Minnie_the_Minx
someinenhhanding menbag and me ah bollox
It was just going to be Bkk then Yangon, but now I find I've got to delay going back to Ygn for 2 days work in... in... in... ah, you know where. And I'll try my utmost to make it there this time
I'm going to nag you 'til you go. If that means for years, it'll have to be
kalidarkone
Bringing YOU round.....
I'm going to nag you 'til you go. If that means for years, it'll have to be
It will be for years Minnie- he never does what he says he is gonna!! Im still waititng for him to get back to me re Burmease currency-I think its been about 6 months plus a few reminders- he is useless-aint ya purves?
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
I was waiting until they'd made the decision as to when to float the kyat. Now they have done! You could've sold it to Cameron - he'd have had to give you market priceIt will be for years Minnie- he never does what he says he is gonna!! Im still waititng for him to get back to me re Burmease currency-I think its been about 6 months plus a few reminders- he is useless-aint ya purves?
kalidarkone
Bringing YOU round.....
So what can I do with all the kyat I have and are notes from 2006 still in circulation and whats the exchange rate?
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
1 USD = 810 kyat when I left last week. But I honestly don't know what you can do with them; I'll happily take em off you in we can figure a payment mechanism, but money through the post isn't such a good idea, is it? Will you be in Colchester in a week or so's time by any chance?
kalidarkone
Bringing YOU round.....
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
Here's a test of Burma's new 'disciplined democracy': increasingly large protests against the lack of electricity. Started in Mandalay, where there's only about 6 hours of electricity a day, and then spread to Rangoon where the power situation is a little better but getting worse. Now in a provincial city where leccy is, well, pretty much absent during the dry season. The protests have been grudgingly allowed to proceed by the cops, but I think now they've lost patience. Things got ugly in Prome.
Most of the domestic supply comes from hydroelectric schemes on the big rives, but during the dry season they don't produce much. Burma is very well off for gas and oil, but almost all of it is sold to Thailand and China. All of those contracts were put together by generals and cronies, the dosh goes straight into their pockets (or Singaporean bank accounts).
http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/5009
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
An open Burma must sound like an immensely attractive destination for hyper-mobile capital of the garment industry (or wigs in this case!), what with its meek, Buddhist workers and its disciplinarian rulers. Happily, there's more resistance now. Great to see the 88 Generation student leaders who were freed at the start of the year, who've spent decades in prison, get on with organising and assisting, and risking being put away again.
http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/5526#comment-5400
http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/5488
http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/5526#comment-5400
http://www.irrawaddy.org/archives/5488
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
So, here's something which has been haunting me, straining friendships and generally putting everybody under immense pressure the past couple of weeks.
The coastal north west of Burma, continuing near the border with Bangladesh, is composed of a state called Rakhine State. It's mainly the strongly Buddhist Rakhine ethnic group which dominate, but there's a significant Muslim population. Many of these are - depending on your viewpoint - an ethnic group called the Rohingya / 'immigrants' from what is now called Bangladesh / illegal immigrants from Bangladesh trying to create a state of their own / extremists with links to Al Qaeda.
A couple of weeks ago a Buddhist woman was raped and killed in northern Rakhine, apparently by a Rohingya. A few days later, a gang of 300 people pulled 10 muslims off a bus in southern Rakhine and clubbed them to death. Not that this should make a difference, but they weren't even Rohingya - they were Muslims from Rangoon visiting relatives. And then, predictably, big riots and ethnic killings began kicked off in northern Rakhine. Now the military are back in there under emergency laws, but with support from many locals.
There's almost full unanimity of opinion, especially among human rights activists, democracy campaigners etc that these people do not belong here. Almost every Burmese Facebook friend of mine, and their friends, have spent the week whipping themselves into a bloodthirsty fury with xenophobic, hyper-nationalist, anti-Muslim slurs (while saying that this is not an ethnic / religious issue, rather one of sovereignty). There's Unanimity of opinion that Rohingya is not one of the 135 ethnic groups which compose Myanmar, so they need to be sent 'back' now. They have been raping women, stealing land, carrying out attacks on Rakhine Buddhists for decades. The new 'free media' here is reporting mainly the deaths and destruction carried out by Rohingya on Rakhine, but the international media has been swayed by exile groups with wildly exaggerated death tolls on the Rohinya side. Cue anger at international media telling lies, in a similar vein to the way the old military govt used to castigate them.
And the military are always lurking in the background...
The coastal north west of Burma, continuing near the border with Bangladesh, is composed of a state called Rakhine State. It's mainly the strongly Buddhist Rakhine ethnic group which dominate, but there's a significant Muslim population. Many of these are - depending on your viewpoint - an ethnic group called the Rohingya / 'immigrants' from what is now called Bangladesh / illegal immigrants from Bangladesh trying to create a state of their own / extremists with links to Al Qaeda.
A couple of weeks ago a Buddhist woman was raped and killed in northern Rakhine, apparently by a Rohingya. A few days later, a gang of 300 people pulled 10 muslims off a bus in southern Rakhine and clubbed them to death. Not that this should make a difference, but they weren't even Rohingya - they were Muslims from Rangoon visiting relatives. And then, predictably, big riots and ethnic killings began kicked off in northern Rakhine. Now the military are back in there under emergency laws, but with support from many locals.
There's almost full unanimity of opinion, especially among human rights activists, democracy campaigners etc that these people do not belong here. Almost every Burmese Facebook friend of mine, and their friends, have spent the week whipping themselves into a bloodthirsty fury with xenophobic, hyper-nationalist, anti-Muslim slurs (while saying that this is not an ethnic / religious issue, rather one of sovereignty). There's Unanimity of opinion that Rohingya is not one of the 135 ethnic groups which compose Myanmar, so they need to be sent 'back' now. They have been raping women, stealing land, carrying out attacks on Rakhine Buddhists for decades. The new 'free media' here is reporting mainly the deaths and destruction carried out by Rohingya on Rakhine, but the international media has been swayed by exile groups with wildly exaggerated death tolls on the Rohinya side. Cue anger at international media telling lies, in a similar vein to the way the old military govt used to castigate them.
And the military are always lurking in the background...
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
True; it's kicked off before though, too, and will - hopefully - ebb away pretty soon while the basic enmity remains. It's hard to imagine that the usual conflict resolution efforts will work because there'd have to be dialogue, and to engage in dialogue would entail that the Rohingya were a legitimate community.
Rangoon runs on rumours, and today the rumour was that the two main Buddhist pagodas here would be destroyed. There would be chaos. "Armageddon" some of my friends said. Muslim shops have sold out of niqabs and hijabs they said - who will be wearing them? It's now 11pm, sat waiting for the Ukraine - France game to start, and to my left I can see the glorious Shwedagon... yep, it's intact.
winterinmoscow
Returning Poster
You're right, it is an interesting time for Burma
It's really encouraging that Aung Sang Suu Kyi has a lot more freedom and the country may be opening. I remember working in the refugee camps on the Thai Burma border 10 years ago, and hearing stories of the most hideous things going on inside Burma. I worked personally with women who'd been raped with broken bottles by Burmese soldiers and children watching their parents being murdered.
I suspect that the junta realised their time with things as they were was limited, and they felt they either had to open up the country or be pushed out
But, I do think it's worthwhile people being cautious about Burma. Essentially the junta are still around, and as far as I am aware, there is no call to have them called to account for all the things they've done in the last 40 years. I worry about how - once this initial period of increased freedom is over - the perpetrators and victims can live together. Somehow, I can't see the path to democracy for Burma being that simple
I'll watch with interest
It's really encouraging that Aung Sang Suu Kyi has a lot more freedom and the country may be opening. I remember working in the refugee camps on the Thai Burma border 10 years ago, and hearing stories of the most hideous things going on inside Burma. I worked personally with women who'd been raped with broken bottles by Burmese soldiers and children watching their parents being murdered.
I suspect that the junta realised their time with things as they were was limited, and they felt they either had to open up the country or be pushed out
But, I do think it's worthwhile people being cautious about Burma. Essentially the junta are still around, and as far as I am aware, there is no call to have them called to account for all the things they've done in the last 40 years. I worry about how - once this initial period of increased freedom is over - the perpetrators and victims can live together. Somehow, I can't see the path to democracy for Burma being that simple
I'll watch with interest
This is a strange thread, almost entirely written by people who appear to base their attitude to the country on how nice or otherwise it might be for THEM to work in or visit as privileged Westerners.
Burma, like Egypt , is a country that for decades has been run by and largely in the interests of, the Burmese Military elite. The Military , with their associated ruling class chums, have quite simply stolen the bulk of Burma's productive resources for their own enrichment, with the majority of Burmese living in relative poverty.
Big problem for the Junta was the sanctions imposed on investment in Burma because of itys appalling human rights record. Solution / Release Aung San Suu Kyi, allow her party some seats in the utterly powerless facade parliament, and lo and behold the Western capitalist states declare "democracy is on the way"..let's get rid of sanctions so we can invest in this profitable state ".
Aung San Suu Kyi has simply fallen into the Junta's trap - and has not altered the conditions of life or the corrupt Junta's police state power one jot so far. The Western press just love Aung San Suu Kyi. If only ALL oppositions to tyranny were so REASONABLE ! The Burmese people will soon tire of her collaboration with this bestial regime.
Burma, like Egypt , is a country that for decades has been run by and largely in the interests of, the Burmese Military elite. The Military , with their associated ruling class chums, have quite simply stolen the bulk of Burma's productive resources for their own enrichment, with the majority of Burmese living in relative poverty.
Big problem for the Junta was the sanctions imposed on investment in Burma because of itys appalling human rights record. Solution / Release Aung San Suu Kyi, allow her party some seats in the utterly powerless facade parliament, and lo and behold the Western capitalist states declare "democracy is on the way"..let's get rid of sanctions so we can invest in this profitable state ".
Aung San Suu Kyi has simply fallen into the Junta's trap - and has not altered the conditions of life or the corrupt Junta's police state power one jot so far. The Western press just love Aung San Suu Kyi. If only ALL oppositions to tyranny were so REASONABLE ! The Burmese people will soon tire of her collaboration with this bestial regime.
winterinmoscow
Returning Poster
Don't quite follow you here. What do you mean?
ETA at risk of me not being clear too, you write "I don't think you have the right place", who are you referring to?
It's worth remembering, amidst all the Nobel Prize ceremony lauding of Aung San Suu Kyi - and the interconnected rhetoric about "democratic opportunities opening up in Burma", that this is simply not true. The facade "parliament" in Burma, with its guaranteed 25% of seats for the Army, is also stuffed with members of the military's puppet Solidarity and Development Party, which "won" 80% of the seats in the completely fraudulent 2010 "election". In other words the military, and their control of much of the county's wealth, continues unabated, but behind a pseudo democratic smokescreen, and pseudo reforming ex-military President, purely to satisfy Western desire to lift sanctions and "do good business" with a country with lots of cheap labour supply. And in the meantime the government and its puppets continue to wage genocidal war on ethnic minorities in its border areas.
Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy are now really prisoners of this bogus "democratic opening up process " . It will bring investment to Burma - but only to enrich the Military Junta hiding behind its "civilian" disguise.
Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy are now really prisoners of this bogus "democratic opening up process " . It will bring investment to Burma - but only to enrich the Military Junta hiding behind its "civilian" disguise.
extra dry
Happy to be here
Ayatollah.
Unless Ayatollah is living in and working closely with the Burmese people (if Ayatollah does then ignore this).
You Ayatollah are right about the military and the fact that now minority groups are being attacked along the border with Bangladesh, homes have been torched, dozen if not hundreds have been killed in the last two weeks. It could really start to unravel in that area.
Until the Junta gets kicked out or put under close scrutiny the ordinary Burmese people will suffer.
The connection I have to Burma is a friend of mine who is now married to a Burmese woman.
However not going into too much detail her family appear to be very wealthy, so they probably are linked to the oppressive military.
Quote 'Big problem for the Junta was the sanctions imposed on investment in Burma because of itys appalling human rights record. Solution / Release Aung San Suu Kyi, allow her party some seats in the utterly powerless facade parliament, and lo and behold the Western capitalist states declare "democracy is on the way"..let's get rid of sanctions so we can invest in this profitable state ". end quote.
That is how business these days works.
The main investors/countries so far backing this horrible regime look to be the Chinese, South Koreans, India and Russia.
The Burmese news channel here has run stories on who or which country is meeting the Burmese minister for development etc. If I had the time I could dig out the relevant stats.
I m leaving this thread, but I will update if I hear of any news, even though it is second hand, from my friend.
winterinmoscow
Returning Poster
I agree with all of this, and would be really interested in any updates you have -thanks (in advance)
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
It's written mainly by me, although it's v nice to have more activity on it now! I've lived in Burma for about 7 years and have a fairly good idea of what's going on, though that's certainly not to say my analysis of the country is more accurate than an astute external observer. But I do notice the contrast between what I see and hear here, and what 'popular commentators' and self-appointed spokespersons for 'the Burmese people' come out with, like the Burma Campaign UK </spits>.
Unlike what you complain about above, I'm trying to paint a picture from inside the country and can give an idea of what non-privileged non-westerners here think. Everybody knows of the massive human rights atrocities committed by the military regime. Everybody knows that the military elite and their business cronies accumulated untold wealth between 1990 - 2010. Sanctions weren't much of a problem for this elite, as these were western sanctions. China, India, Thailand, Russia, Singapore and one or two others were ramping up their investments year-after-year, especially in lucrative sectors like dams, mining, bridge building, military hardware - all great opportunities for corruption. Sanctions were hated by many, perhaps the majority, of ordinary people - they're a blunt instrument at the best of times.
As for ASSK falling into the junta's trap... First off, she's had 17 years or so of house arrest to consider her move - she's a fierce thinker, knows the military extremely well and understands far more than many. Secondly, she's not participating alone - she leads a party which decided to accept the new constitution and participate in elections. Thirdly, the NLD aren't the only player here either - there are plenty of ethnic groups who have formed parties and have seats. All the above are - you might not believe this Ayatollah - fully cognizant of the difficulties of working in a military-dominated parliament but have chosen to participate not because they were fooled (do you think that they don't have the reasoning ability that 'privileged westerners' have?) but because... well, for a whole variety of pragmatic reasons. Some sound , some bad. What's undeniable is that the country needs economic development so badly, needs to address crippling inequalities, needs massive investment in public health and education, needs rule of law to bring the judiciary and the provincial local powers to heel, needs the cronies to be challenged economically and properly taxed on their earnings, it needs a functioning fiscal and monetary system, and it needs to formulate these on its own terms and not those dictated by IFI's or western countries. This demands participation; sadly, the current political structure is the only game in town. There will be no Berlin Wall moment, and if you think strangling the country with more sanctions and more isolation will produce one, you're sadly mistaken.
The 88 Generation students and hundreds of other political prisoners are out and playing a major role in mobilization and political education among politicized youth across the country. The new ethnic and national political parties are very active and, although they have serious shortcomings in capacity, are very vocal in their political and development ambitions. I'm cautiously, very cautiously, optimistic about Burma, for the first time since I first visited in 1997. To call Burma now a 'police state', to talk about ASSK's (and others', and the people who turned out in their hundreds of thousands in recent by-elections to vote for them) 'collaboration with a bestial regime', is to be exactly the privileged westerner you rail against.
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
I think - I hope - she'll be suitably nonplussed.
Interesting interview on the BBC yesterday with ASSK, in which she seemed to accept from the BBC interviewer at least the validity of all the key reservations I have expressed about the bogus nature of the current "parliament" , and the big question of whether the end of sanctions and opening up of Burma to external investors will help democratise Burma. ASSK really just said she "hoped for the best really". This isn't a question of "stupidity" or otherwise of either the Burmese people or ASSK and her party. It is a question of politics and tactics. ASSK is a reformist, and therefore hopes for reform of the system , rather than the possible bloodbath of a revolutionery upheaval. The question is whether the entrenched Burmese elite will be weakened or caused to democratise further by the end of sanctions and participation by ASSK and her party in the puppet parliament. I think not. Why should it ? It gives the Burmese elite everything they want.
The situation is in some ways similar to the issue facing those seeking a fundamental change of the South Afraican Apartheid regime. The ANC quite rightly pressed for ever greater sanctions to weaken the regime (despite the great hardship this imposed on Black South Africans) , and encourage the big business interests to seek change. Some, like the Zulu leader,Buthelezei, went for an "internal settlement" with the regime, leaving the fundamentals of Apartheid and White entrenched privilege in place. Well, we now know that continuing sanctions, plus guerilla warfare plus internal revolt at a number of levels, DID overthrow the Apartheid regime. I'm afraid ASSK , feted by the West as she is, has made a bad tactical mistake, and has gone down the equivalent of the Apartheid "Internal Settlement" route ... to nowhere.
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
It's important to understand that virtually nobody here held any hope anymore for a successful revolution. 1988 and 2007 came and went achieving little more than producing thousands of martyrs and prisoners. The military were too entrenched, the opposition too enfeebled, the ethnic armies only interested in their autonomy (or lucrative peace deals with the Burma Army). Waiting for a revolution, waiting for Godot.
And for many people now, when they can (almost) write what they want without a worry about a knock at the door, when they're going on strike for higher wages or demonstrating for basic economic rights without fear of heads being cracked, have meetings with visiting human rights workers without worry, get passports without worry, complain about corruption... well, it feels like there's been a quiet revolution somewhere. This has only scratched the surface of what's needed for real democracy and respect for human rights. Nobody looks at the current parliament and thinks it's a model of representative democracy, but they do think it's a step forward especially given the other positive moves I've described. Yep, that's reformist rather than revolutionary, but it's correct because a) the revolution won't come; b) many in the military want change too, and they're far from being the only player in town anymore. The country people are looking towards is Indonesia, were the military voluntarily reduced and then abandoned their role in the post-Suharto parliament.
The South Africa comparison is unhelpful imho. The NLD was never anything like the ANC in terms of its leadership capacity, level of popular participation (only a tiny number of card-carrying NLD members throughout the dark days here), and its military wing (which the Buddhist non-violence prevailing within the people here wouldn't readily countenance). Unlike South Africa, where successful businesses were owned almost wholly by the white elite, there are thousands of non-crony small businesses in Burma which have suffered or collapsed because of sanctions. Again, unlike South Africa, Burma exists in a time when its closest neighbours are the fastest growing economies in the world. There's no interest in sanctions from them, no hope of a UN resolution to enforce them! Instead, during sanctions Burma has endured some of the most rapacious and unaccountable companies coming in and making massive profits from extractive industries and energy production, taking what they can, profits for themselves & the military elite. Disastrous for all Burmese except the elite, who had their income stream secured.
Unfortunately the countries that have managed to go through the "fast economic development - greater democratic freedoms - greater general prosperity - whilst retaining vast privileges for a shadowy ruling clique" route -- South Korea, Indonesia, Spain Portugal, and of course Eastern Europe, spring to mind, did so during the boom years of growth capitalism. I very much doubt that the "tiger economies" of globalisation will still be so bouyant as the World Slump continues to deepen. In this recessionery environment there is no longer a "bigger cake" to share out with the population, and ruling elites will be squeezing their populations even more than before to maintain their profits. We are entering into a world era of revolutions, of which the "Arab Spring" is just a precursor. The Burmese have , IMO, "missed the boat" for a peaceful transition to some form of "managed or partial democracy" via Liberal free enterprise economic development.
Time will tell whose analysis is correct, but I wouldn't hold your breath for a great democratic flowering in Burma - the Generals have cynically ignored the democratically expressed will of the Burmese people before, and they'll do it again every time ASSK and her party make gains that threaten their privileges. If the ASSK strategy is simply to permanently accept these gross wealth disparities - from decades of simple robbery of the country's wealth by the military elite - then for how long will her party retain its current mass popularity, as harder economic times bite even the surroundng tiger economies, and hence Burma too ?
purves grundy
ambient clown remix
It's strange, on the one hand, to warn me not to hold my breath for a great democratic flowering and, on the other, to demand application of (ineffectual) sanctions until there's a revolution! Anyway, yep, let's see what happens, and I hope it's in the same radically democratic direction you hope for too, but in the meantime the people, networks and new parties are making v creative use of the new space they've found to openly mobilise and struggle for something better. It's this that's the most interesting and hopeful aspect of the country right now.
Also, good to see you've moved on from your simplistic categorization of the country as a 'prison state'
Also, good to see you've moved on from your simplistic categorization of the country as a 'prison state'
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