Very interesting times in Burma

[purves grundy]

After the brutal lost decades of the SLORC / SPDC days, despite a sham election in which the military backed party won the vast majority of seats for a constitution designed by themselves, it appears that there's more than a hint of optimism in the air. Some developments which would have been unthinkable a year ago:

1. Aung San Suu Kyi is not only released, but goes about her business quite freely. She meets visiting well-wishers, government ministers, has been to the new capital and had cordial meetings with the President, makes statements on behalf of her party (which, strictly speaking, should have been completely disbanded according to new laws).
2. Cancellation of a massive Chinese-funded dam project, directly by the president, "in accordance with the will of the people". This will have pissed of scores of cronies and military figures from the SPDC who stood to make millions upon millions. 90%of the electricity would have gone to China.
3. New political parties have found their voice and have started to become genuine vehicles of representation for people around the country. It's no longer the NLD (ASSK's party) and the military, making for a far more pluralistic politics.
4. The big one: an anticipated release of pretty much all political prisoners either today or tomorrow, with perhaps any remaining before the end of the month. Little bits of news are leaking through now. Those behind bars are the real strategists, the big names. Although she's fantastic, it was never only about 'the lady'.

Let's see...

 

[purves grundy]

Ah, so item #4 fell far short of expectations - only 206 released, with only a few of real significance and most with only a short time on their sentence left to serve. Still, great for those who have got out Looks like it's going to be a phased release, with many of the big names - 88 Generation leaders - saved until an ASEAN summit in November - a big release should ensure that Burma can chair ASEAN in 2014. It's what they've been after for ages.

 

[purves grundy]

Hilary's in town...

 

[dessiato]

Now that does look an interesting development, I wonder If they need teachers, it can't be worse than Sudan, can it? I've always had a hankering for Burma.

 

[purves grundy]

Now that does look an interesting development, I wonder If they need teachers, it can't be worse than Sudan, can it? I've always had a hankering for Burma.

Oooh there's plenty of need indeed. It's a wonderful country.

 

[dessiato]

Oooh there's plenty of need indeed. It's a wonderful country.

But is it safer than Sudan, I need to get out of here! Perhaps they'll have me because my grandfather was there in the war

 

[purves grundy]

Well, I've been here about 5 years and haven't had a whiff of bother Plenty of conflict going on, but all in the hinterlands which you'll never get to see.

 

[TruXta]

Please keep this thread running purves, I've got a vested interest now that my mates are over. You met them? You should, they're lovely.

 

[purves grundy]

Will do on both counts!

 

[dessiato]

Will do on both counts!

That sounds much safer than here. If we get out alive I'll have a serious look at it. I've now had the malaria experience, so time to move on somewhere more exciting...maybe! Any suggestions where to look for jobs, or is it just the usual places?

 

[purves grundy]

That sounds much safer than here. If we get out alive I'll have a serious look at it. I've now had the malaria experience, so time to move on somewhere more exciting...maybe! Any suggestions where to look for jobs, or is it just the usual places?

I've been out of the teaching game for a few years now so, although I can't be sure, I doubt the usual places will have much on them. Guess you'd call it a small but growing market, and - as you might imagine - there are specific local challenges which make hiring somewhat more complicated.

Don't be put off though - drop me a PM instead

 

[purves grundy]

And now with ASSK, at the US chargé d'affaires pad.

 

[purves grundy]

Ecky thump

 

[crusty bloomer]

What caused the change in their policy?

Was it anything to do with the election?

 

[purves grundy]

Partly, yes. The 2010 election followed ratification of new constitution allowing at least a nominally civilian government (although 25% seats are reserved for the military, and the military-backed party won over 80% of the civilian seats at the election). Necessary but not sufficient though, and wouldn't be enough for him above, and her further above, to jet in. The new president is pretty popular in the country now, following a (fairly limited) political prisoner release and cancellation of a massive Chinese dam construction project.

But Daw Suu Kyi's guarded participation in the 'new' political process has been the deciding factor I think. The more she participates - she's probably going to stand for election in by-elections in a few months time - the more legitimacy the political process gets, and, of course, the more likely it is that sanctions will come down. And then... the floodgates open, a foreign investment opportunity that few would resist.

 

[krtek a houby]

Oooh there's plenty of need indeed. It's a wonderful country.

This month's Lonely Planet has a fascinating feature on the place, I'd dearly love to visit

 

[purves grundy]

Two big ones in two days:

The world's longest civil war comes to an end? http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=22826

And today should see pretty much all remaining political prisoners released... hopefully.

 

[purves grundy]

Wow - yes!!! They're all released!!!

 

[extra dry]

Met up with a friend who is in Burma teaching now, he is getting married to a Burmese. Funny thing was his future wife family have been trading internationally for a number of years quite openly.

 

[ymu]

What's the general view of Daw Suu Kyi's involvement, purves? From the more and less radical wings of the resistance. Hope of progress vs danger of co-option/being used as a figleaf, kind of thing?

Met up with a friend who is in Burma teaching now, he is getting married to a Burmese. Funny thing was his future wife family have been trading internationally for a number of years quite openly.

Do they live in Naypyidaw?

 

[extra dry]

What's the general view of Daw Suu Kyi's involvement, purves? From the more and less radical wings of the resistance. Hope of progress vs danger of co-option/being used as a figleaf, kind of thing?

Do they live in Naypyidaw?

not sure where they live at the moment

 

[purves grundy]

What's the general view of Daw Suu Kyi's involvement, purves? From the more and less radical wings of the resistance. Hope of progress vs danger of co-option/being used as a figleaf, kind of thing?

Sorry ymu - missed this. This issue has come to the fore now as she's running for a seat in the new parliament in April 1st by-elections. Those given senior govt positions have to give up their seat when they go into government, so these are mostly to replace them in 45 constituencies (was 48 but the civil war in Kachin State made it 'unsuitable' for elections, hmmmm...) And ASSK's NLD will contest.

So Daw Suu is going around the country, campaigning for the NLD. All of a sudden, there are Daw Suu Kyi pictures and fighting peacock images everywhere - t-shirts, flags, bumper stickers, bags and almost daily on the cover of the major private newspapers. So much so that other smaller parties are complaining they can't get a look in. The contrast with even 6 or 7 months ago, when people were still unsure how far they could push things, is incredible.

Her esteem among democrats of all shades of activism remains soaringly high. I haven't come across anyone who thinks she's being hoodwinked, if only because she talks to so many different people and hears so many different opinions. What they would take issue with is her confidence that concrete progress can be made in an acceptable length of time through adopting only her parliamentary strategy. I don't see any hunger for protests at the moment - the thaw feels so bloody good to so many right now - but other activists have preferred to remain a loose network outside the new political system. Inside a political party, you sign up to many restrictions which they won't accept; the new private media is keen to print what they think and sayand do, so what's their motivation? Among the country's ethnic minorities, opinion of her is more mixed, though this has been the case for decades (mainly because of her dad).

Worryingly, with all of this has come the foreign trade delegations, who are at least totalling up potential opportunities (which are massive). And there's also Big Aid on its way in, in Big Cars with Big Projects and Big Project Manager Salaries. Just a trickle relative to other countries in the region, but they're taking their positions, and if all goes well in these by-elections in a few days they'll be in properly within weeks I'll bet.

 

[purves grundy]

The city is heaving with journos, propping up the bars, bellowing loudly their tame, ill-informed political predictions and observations. Of the latter, they always refer to people "whispering" opposition sentiments - "I asked him what he really thought of the new government. He looked around nervously, then whspered "Here they will never give up power voluntarily...". Its the way every story seems to start and it's so far from reality I can't bear to read further. There's a ready-made framework and you just have to slot in the odd adjective etc. Meanwhile, nobody ever speaks up, they just whisper. This election, I'm whisper-watching.

 

[purves grundy]

Amazing scenes last night outside the NLD office HQ, thousands of people - looks like the NLD have been v successful. In the next few weeks, expect sanctions to be dismantled (they've always been disastrous for the people here anyway)... and the tax holiday enticements for FDI / accessions to their demands, to begin.

 

[purves grundy]

Oh lord...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/10/david-cameron-visit-burma

 

[purves grundy]

Sanctions have been disasterous for the ordinary citizen in Burma, but 'creative destruction' by foreign capital interests could prove equally nasty.They're all forming a (dis)orderly queue.

Cameron about to lead our boys (and they will mainly be boys, talking to boys in Burma, apart from one lady) into the fray:

David Cameron has been presented with a diplomatic headache even before he becomes the first western leader to set foot on Burmese soil since the historic parliamentary byelections earlier this month.
A select group of business leaders, who have been following the prime minister around Asia, are tagging along for the final day of his visit to Burma...
The presence in Burma of around 10 members of the prime minister's business delegation – out of the 37 who flew into Japan with the prime minister on Monday – could be tricky, if not downright illegal

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/apr/11/david-cameron-business-burma-tourists

 

[purves grundy]

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

Could you cut that bloke out of the picture

 

[purves grundy]

Nobhead, isn't he.

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

Nobhead, isn't he.

Smug git

I'd like to be the first to wish you Happy New Year in four days purves