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Ukraine after the war

Pickman's model

Starry Wisdom
reckon they'll be a bit fucked by the 46% interest they're paying High interest rates paid by poorer nations spark fears of global debt crisis

europe's poorest country doesn't have a particularly bright post-war to look forward to. where it needs something like a marshall plan, it'll just see all its wealth taken out. and that with the various regressive laws going through now -- enjoy the war while it lasts for the peace will be bloody
 
reckon they'll be a bit fucked by the 46% interest they're paying High interest rates paid by poorer nations spark fears of global debt crisis

europe's poorest country doesn't have a particularly bright post-war to look forward to. where it needs something like a marshall plan, it'll just see all its wealth taken out. and that with the various regressive laws going through now -- enjoy the war while it lasts for the peace will be bloody
They're going to have to get on top of their historical corruption problems PDQ. But I'd imagine that the sense of freedom, not to mention their feeling of achievement at throwing off the Russian yoke will go a long way.

I think things are going to be shit for a lot of us, for a while to come. In my lifetime, I think we've lived in something of a fool's paradise. It's going to be tough getting used to less...and we'll (Tory party notwithstanding) be nowhere near experiencing the worst.
 

:rolleyes:

zero hours contracts and jakeys put into workfare overalls for their benefits will re-build Ukraine in no time.
I hate disaster capitalism.

eta: It’s so deliberate. ‘Wow did that happen by accident!!!!’. And if you don’t believe that stuff happens regularly then I’d like to invite you to a champagne and caviar (both horrible…had them at a wedding once) party with the chancellor to buy a fucking bridge you thick naive cunts.

Unless you’ve got a personal financial interest obviously. Because that’s OK.
 
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reckon they'll be a bit fucked by the 46% interest they're paying High interest rates paid by poorer nations spark fears of global debt crisis

europe's poorest country doesn't have a particularly bright post-war to look forward to. where it needs something like a marshall plan, it'll just see all its wealth taken out. and that with the various regressive laws going through now -- enjoy the war while it lasts for the peace will be bloody

I was going to pop up with a marshall plan - yes I know it wasn't done for the benefit of the post war German people but it did some "good" in the big scheme of things, albeit in a regulated capitalist kinda way. The last thing UKR needs is to be a new testing ground for the global neocon industry.
 
I was going to pop up with a marshall plan - yes I know it wasn't done for the benefit of the post war German people but it did some "good" in the big scheme of things, albeit in a regulated capitalist kinda way. The last thing UKR needs is to be a new testing ground for the global neocon industry.
Sadly that's who they've sold themselves to
 
Its hard to imagine a Marshall plan being rolled out these days. Bosnia is still wrestling with the shock of state owned to privatisation even now, and is under constant pressure from the EU to shake itself free of the chains of state control ( and corruption obviously) to enter the nirvarna of EU membership. Iraq is a fucking mess, despite the weight of intervention- it turned into a criminal resource grab under the auspices of the US/Iraq administration of the time. Its still fucked . Has there been another Marshall plan, even on a tiny level, since the end of WW2 ? i'm struggling to think of one
 
Its hard to imagine a Marshall plan being rolled out these days. Bosnia is still wrestling with the shock of state owned to privatisation even now, and is under constant pressure from the EU to shake itself free of the chains of state control ( and corruption obviously) to enter the nirvarna of EU membership. Iraq is a fucking mess, despite the weight of intervention- it turned into a criminal resource grab under the auspices of the US/Iraq administration of the time. Its still fucked . Has there been another Marshall plan, even on a tiny level, since the end of WW2 ? i'm struggling to think of one
The Marshall Plan needed social democracy. Social democracy is so yesteryear.
 
Young Ukrainians i have spoken to, some of whom took part in the Maidan movement as teenagers, believe that they are fighting for their independence. Sure, they had independence for around 30 years already, but oligarchs instantly took a tight hold right from the beginning. A young generation, often mocked as soft, experienced it's formative years against the background of revolution war. They are resolved to steer their society on the best path possible, and for the national / state institutions to finally find their own healthy form.
 
Young Ukrainians i have spoken to, some of whom took part in the Maidan movement as teenagers, believe that they are fighting for their independence. Sure, they had independence for around 30 years already, but oligarchs instantly took a tight hold right from the beginning. A young generation, often mocked as soft, experienced it's formative years against the background of revolution war. They are resolved to steer their society on the best path possible, and for the national / state institutions to finally find their own healthy form.
Don't really see why oligarchs taking over at the beginning of independence implies that it wasn't really independence. Nothing other than a takeover by oligarchs was going to happen under the circumstances of the time. Ukrainian oligarchs had prepared the ground for assuming de-facto power in the dying days of the SU, with national independence in mind. The young generation wasn't formed against the backdrop of revolution and war. The so-called orange revolution was, at base, a fight between rival oligarchs, and the Maidan thing engineered by western powers, at a time when a deeply divided Ukraine could have decided its fate in the forthcoming elections, with the years before and in between these events largely peaceful.
 
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Don't really see why oligarchs taking over at the beginning of independence implies that it wasn't really independence. Nothing other than a takeover by oligarchs was going to happen under the circumstances of the time. Ukrainian oligarchs had prepared the ground for assuming de-facto power in the dying days of the SU, with national independence in mind. The young generation wasn't formed against the backdrop of revolution and war. The so-called orange revolution was, at base, a fight between rival oligarchs, and the Maidan thing engineered by western powers, at a time when a deeply divided Ukraine could have decided its fate in the forthcoming elections, with the years before and in between these events largely peaceful.
Talk of a country gaining independence brings up notions of new institutions being constructed and a healthier political culture coming into being. That never happened for Ukraine after 1993, and the point I was making on this nihilistic thread, was that there are Ukrainian people who I have spoken to are resolved to changing that - although war is a barrier.

You are completely wrong when you say that the youth wasn't formed against a backdrop of revolution and war. Its 9 years since the Maidan revolution started, immedietely followed by the ongoing Russo-Ukraine war. An 18-year old would have been 9. If that's not formative then I don't know what is.

As an aside to the future post-war topic here, I am actually genuinely interested in why you think the Maidan revolution was engineered by western powers. Nine years ago, the President was Yanukovych, who was elected on a pro-EU ticket, but who went on to align Ukraine with Russia instead, provoking student protests. That's not western engineered.

I've watched the 2015 pro-Putin film 'Ukraine on Fire' hosted by Oliver Stone. So Mustafa who called the first student protest on Maidan square apparently did a US summer school hosted by the CIA. The protesters who were beaten and killed were 'human sacrifice' to western expansion, used as bait to lure out the apolitical masses into revolt against their innocent President. The order to open fire on protesters came not from him, but from another CIA cat, as the USA continually cultivated links with Ukrainian nationalists from 1945 until now, as a counter against Soviet Union / Russia. Is that what you believe in?

Can you agree with me on this though? Normal people stood up for themselves in a big mess not of their own making. Their vision was aligned with an idealised "European values" (freedom, democracy, linguistic diversity, anti-corruption) but they now acknowledge that they idealised the EU as a white knight against the Russian/Yanukovych dragon. But that their lives, mentalities, hopes, beliefs and aspirations have been shaped by all of these events, and that they can put those values to use after the war finally forming new institutions and a healthier political culture three decades on from their independence, regardless of how they choose to relate to the EU and other blocs.
 
Talk of a country gaining independence brings up notions of new institutions being constructed and a healthier political culture coming into being. That never happened for Ukraine after 1993, and the point I was making on this nihilistic thread, was that there are Ukrainian people who I have spoken to are resolved to changing that - although war is a barrier.

Perhaps it does, but notions are merely notions. And anyway, a new political culture and institutions were created in Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the ex-USSR after the dissolution of the latter, but a demoralised, disoriented, impoverished and powerless population was always going to cede power to the oligarchs and their lackies. Don't know where 1993 comes into it, as Ukraine became formally independent in 1991.
You are completely wrong when you say that the youth wasn't formed against a backdrop of revolution and war. Its 9 years since the Maidan revolution started, immedietely followed by the ongoing Russo-Ukraine war. An 18-year old would have been 9. If that's not formative then I don't know what is.

An 18 year-old maybe, but I doubt if many 18 year-olds are going to be able to do anything decisive in the current period except vent their ire and, if idealistic, inevitably end up disappointed. And no group of teenagers thinks exactly the same things anyway, even in a war zone. But most of those growing up in post-independence Ukraine experienced a period of social peace (and economic hardship) up until 2005 (where the 'orange' events were mostly confined to Kiev and, to a lesser extent other big cities, and widely opposed by much of the population.) Between 2005 and 2014, there was no war or revolution in Ukraine.
As an aside to the future post-war topic here, I am actually genuinely interested in why you think the Maidan revolution was engineered by western powers. Nine years ago, the President was Yanukovych, who was elected on a pro-EU ticket, but who went on to align Ukraine with Russia instead, provoking student protests. That's not western engineered.
Western powers intervened directly in Ukraine in the run-up, during and after the Maidan events. Ex-Us presidential candidate John McCain went and addressed the Maidan crowds, which were reliant for their protection, and to drive events forward, on fascist militias. The student protests you speak of were influenced by that intervention even if their complaints might have arisen spontaneously. And as I said, they were to have their chance to vote out Yanukovich, a legitimately elected president in a deeply divided country, in forthcoming elections anyway. And could you imagine the US tolerating an hostile former Russian presidential candidate addressing anti-US crowds in, say, Mexico, given their interventions, for far less provocation, throughout Latin America over the decades?
I've watched the 2015 pro-Putin film 'Ukraine on Fire' hosted by Oliver Stone. So Mustafa who called the first student protest on Maidan square apparently did a US summer school hosted by the CIA. The protesters who were beaten and killed were 'human sacrifice' to western expansion, used as bait to lure out the apolitical masses into revolt against their innocent President. The order to open fire on protesters came not from him, but from another CIA cat, as the USA continually cultivated links with Ukrainian nationalists from 1945 until now, as a counter against Soviet Union / Russia. Is that what you believe in?

Never seen that Oliver Stone film. I have a feeling, however, that it might serve as a useful reminder that we live in a world full of different opnions, thoughts, motivations, contradictions and emotions.
Can you agree with me on this though? Normal people stood up for themselves in a big mess not of their own making. Their vision was aligned with an idealised "European values" (freedom, democracy, linguistic diversity, anti-corruption) but they now acknowledge that they idealised the EU as a white knight against the Russian/Yanukovych dragon. But that their lives, mentalities, hopes, beliefs and aspirations have been shaped by all of these events, and that they can put those values to use after the war finally forming new institutions and a healthier political culture three decades on from their independence, regardless of how they choose to relate to the EU and other blocs.
When you say normal people, I hope you mean ordinary people, as there is no normal. Plenty of other ordinary people opposed what the so-called orange revolution and Maidan purported to stand for, and not for evil reasons but because they felt themselves, rightly or wrongly, to be targets and scapegoats. I have no idea if the orange and Maidan enthusiasts now acknowledge any of what you say, and I don't see how you could know that they do. As for what will happen after a war that's far from over, that's anybody's guess. As ever, though, it is bound to be brutal whatever the outcome.
 
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Western powers intervened directly in Ukraine in the run-up, during and after the Maidan events. Ex-Us presidential candidate John McCain went and addressed the Maidan crowds, which were reliant for their protection, and to drive events forward, on fascist militias. The student protests you speak of were influenced by that intervention even if their complaints might have arisen spontaneously.
Its easy to judge from the sidelines, and with the benefit of hindsight, and say things like "out of the frying pan into the fire". But the reality is, smaller nations often find themselves in a position of being (often roughly) wooed by competing empires.

It was called Euro Maidan, not USA Maidan. The participants looked to the EU regulation as an alternative to the gangsterism and kleptocracy of Russian and homegrown oligarchs.

Neo-con libertarians in the US saw Ukraine looking west, and tried to get them to look further west, across the Atlantic. The Stone film features footage of senior Americans discussing 'klitch' and 'yats' and saying 'f--k the EU'.

Far from Maidan being the hour of glory for the Ukrainian far right, the electorate don't seem to have been impressed. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, Svoboda only got 6 seats (a big fall), and the new Right Sector 1. In the 2019 parliamentary elections Svoboda fell to 1 seat, whilst the Right Sector got 0. They performed no better in the presidential elections.

And as I said, they were to have their chance to vote out Yanukovich, a legitimately elected president in a deeply divided country, in forthcoming elections anyway.
Well the protests began in November 2013, and it didn't take long for berkut police brutality to begin. A mass movement was born. Apolitical people turned out in support. The genie was out of the bottle. Kjiv major Vitali Klitschko negotiated for the President to stand down around 9 months later. The movement said, we're not having another year of him. He was gone the next morning, and elections were called.

And could you imagine the US tolerating an hostile former Russian presidential candidate addressing anti-US crowds in, say, Mexico, given their interventions, for far less provocation, throughout Latin America over the decades?
Probably not. I could imagine the Russian elite trying to pull it off, but then again, I think most of their former presidential candidates are either dead or in jail.
 
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I have no idea if the orange and Maidan enthusiasts now acknowledge any of what you say, and I don't see how you could know that they do. As for what will happen after a war that's far from over, that's anybody's guess. As ever, though, it is bound to be brutal whatever the outcome.
I know because I listened to Ukrainian students who study here at an event to mark the anniversary. Ages around 18-35.

The ultra right is a sore spot though.

They said that everyday corruption seems to have fallen, or at least that more people are more contentious. For example, refusing to bribe officials when given the nod. Standard practice before. War is seen as a consequence of corruption. Thats an example of "Ukraine and Ukrainians after the war". Idealism, yes. Moving, yes.
 
Its easy to judge from the sidelines, and with the benefit of hindsight, and say things like "out of the frying pan into the fire". But the reality is, smaller nations often find themselves in a position of being (often roughly) wooed by competing empires.

Easier still to cheer on a bloody war, which was always avoidable, at a distance of 1500 miles.
It was called Euro Maidan, not USA Maidan. The participants looked to the EU regulation as an alternative to the gangsterism and kleptocracy of Russian and homegrown oligarchs.

Some did; others clearly had their own agendas.
Neo-con libertarians in the US saw Ukraine looking west, and tried to get them to look further west, across the Atlantic. The Stone film features footage of senior Americans discussing 'klitch' and 'yats' and saying 'f--k the EU'.
'Fuck the EU' as the US seeks to more or less control it, like they think they can control everything else.
Far from Maidan being the hour of glory for the Ukrainian far right, the electorate don't seem to have been impressed. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, Svoboda only got 6 seats (a big fall), and the new Right Sector 1. In the 2019 parliamentary elections Svoboda fell to 1 seat, whilst the Right Sector got 0. They performed no better in the presidential elections.

Maybe so, but didn't they have fascist ministers in the first post-Maidan government, and incorporate Azov into the Ukraine army?
Well the protests began in November 2013, and it didn't take long for berkut police brutality to begin. A mass movement was born. Apolitical people turned out in support. The genie was out of the bottle. Kjiv major Vitali Klitschko negotiated for the President to stand down around 9 months later. The movement said, we're not having another year of him. He was gone the next morning, and elections were called.
The point being that elections were coming anyway, and the protestors were not representative of all of what was still a deeply divided society. They had been goaded into taking an overtly anti-Russian stance which is proving disastrous even as we write.
Probably not. I could imagine the Russian elite trying to pull it off, but then again, I think most of their former presidential candidates are either dead or in jail.

Can't remember who most of them were, but most of them are still alive and not in jail. If they were, we'd hear no end of it. There are far fewer Russian oppositionists in jail than in NATO member Turkey.
 
I know because I listened to Ukrainian students who study here at an event to mark the anniversary. Ages around 18-35.

Fair enough, but that's just some Ukrainians studying here, who may or may not be more widely representative. I know some Ukrainians here also, two couples in particular. Older than student age, even if 35 is hardly student age, but they are all over the place politically. Husband didn't even agree with wife about events at home or here most of the time. The war may have united them, but the differences still bubble away under the surface. But again, that's just some people I know personally, and I take little from it to get the wider picture.
The ultra right is a sore spot though.

They said that everyday corruption seems to have fallen, or at least that more people are more contentious. For example, refusing to bribe officials when given the nod. Standard practice before. War is seen as a consequence of corruption. Thats an example of "Ukraine and Ukrainians after the war". Idealism, yes. Moving, yes.
It seems doubtful if they can ever totally overcome corruption which is so deeply embedded, just as it proves impossible in all societies where it's part of the fabric of society, which actually comprise most of the world. Just watch the Ukrainian oligarchs reinvent themselves after the war.
 
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Electricity blackouts due to Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure are crippling its economy, including in key sectors including mining and manufacturing.

The report in the Washington Post said that Ukraine needs another $2bn a month on top of the $55bn already projected for next year to meet basic expenses.

There are concerns that Ukraine could end up in a balance-of-payments crisis if it does not have the international reserves to pay for key imports and to meet foreign debt obligations.

Inflation has already reached 20%, and one forecast shows that the economy could contract by 5% next year, on top of the 33% this year after the invasion.

The targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure began in earnest in mid-October, and has led to regular blackouts and restriction of supplies since.

The Washington Post said that two of Ukraine’s biggest steel plants, in the south-east of the country, had to shut down last month due to power cuts. Meanwhile dozens of coalminers had to be rescued after an electricity failure left them trapped underground.

Internet outages due to the lack of power could also hit its IT sector, as well as basic public and private financial services, including pension payments, mobile banking, tax collection and digital sales.

The government in Kyiv fears an exodus of people due to a lack of heat and water during the cold winter, meaning they will take their money with them, and not be there to work when businesses are open, or spend their money buying products or services.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...0816e812ef03d5#block-639b0c3c8f0816e812ef03d5
 
Electricity blackouts due to Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure are crippling its economy, including in key sectors including mining and manufacturing.

The report in the Washington Post said that Ukraine needs another $2bn a month on top of the $55bn already projected for next year to meet basic expenses.

There are concerns that Ukraine could end up in a balance-of-payments crisis if it does not have the international reserves to pay for key imports and to meet foreign debt obligations.

Inflation has already reached 20%, and one forecast shows that the economy could contract by 5% next year, on top of the 33% this year after the invasion.

The targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure began in earnest in mid-October, and has led to regular blackouts and restriction of supplies since.

The Washington Post said that two of Ukraine’s biggest steel plants, in the south-east of the country, had to shut down last month due to power cuts. Meanwhile dozens of coalminers had to be rescued after an electricity failure left them trapped underground.

Internet outages due to the lack of power could also hit its IT sector, as well as basic public and private financial services, including pension payments, mobile banking, tax collection and digital sales.

The government in Kyiv fears an exodus of people due to a lack of heat and water during the cold winter, meaning they will take their money with them, and not be there to work when businesses are open, or spend their money buying products or services.


Russia-Ukraine war live: Ukraine army chief warns Moscow preparing for new Kyiv attack as Putin seeks new economic ties
I would’ve thought balance of payments is the least of their problems. They’ll surely just get bailed out via debt forgiveness from EU/US?
 
what do Ukraine have left to sell off after this conflict (eventually ) eases? I'm not sure residual state assets are massively valuable atm but i'm sure down the line, everything left will be dumped to Capital as part and parcel of any funding bridge they may get from the WB/IMF etc. The photogenic auld widow with the headscarf in the sticks with a couple of cows and half an acre probably wont see much benefit
 
what do Ukraine have left to sell off after this conflict (eventually ) eases? I'm not sure residual state assets are massively valuable atm but i'm sure down the line, everything left will be dumped to Capital as part and parcel of any funding bridge they may get from the WB/IMF etc. The photogenic auld widow with the headscarf in the sticks with a couple of cows and half an acre probably wont see much benefit
They are rich in natural resources - particularly land. There's a reason Ukraine is known as the "breadbasket of the world".
 
Seems a bit complex however I'm not sure how the EU can insist on having three foreign experts on a panel that appoints position in Ukraine's Constitutional Court

 
Scrap metal will make a bit on a dent in their balance of payments issue in the short term.

if they can get it back off people with tractors that is.
 
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