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The Islamic state

On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 155, March 22, 2017
The Iraqi forces (ISF) were still slowly but surely pushing into the Old City district of west Mosul. The Golden Division attacked the Yabsaat, Yarmouk, Rajim al-Hadid and Wai al-Ain areas, while the apartments in Yarmouk were freed. There was still fighting in Nablus and Resala, which were officially declared cleared yesterday. The Federal Police were also forced to retreat in Jadid due to Islamic State attacks. That neighborhood was freed on March 12. There were also heavy clashes in Bab al-Tob. So far the ISF have only penetrated into the perimeter of the Old City. Poor weather has limited air support. The dense layout of the sector has meant the Iraqis usually have to dismount and move street to street, house to house. IS is also putting up a stiff defense.

town and a bridge were reached. These units are supposed to eventually reach Mosul itself, but at the pace their moving they may just stay on the perimeter.
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From The Bored Jihadi The Futurist Aesthetics of IS
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Here’s the abstract:

ISIS propaganda differs from that of other (Islamic or non-Islamic) religions or cults as it is not so much concerned with imagination and exotic fantasies but accentuates the maximal exploitation and demonstration of available technology. The Islamic State does not only excel through the extensive use of high-tech weapons, social media, commercial bot, and automated text systems; by putting forward the presence of speeding cars and tanks, mobile phones, and computers, ISIS presents jihad life as connected to modern urban culture. The article shows that the aesthetics of the Islamic State is “futurist” by comparing it with Italian Futurism. Futurism glorified cars, industrial machines, and modern cities while praising violence as a means of leaving behind imitations of the past in order to project itself most efficiently into the future. A profound sense of crisis produces in both Futurism and jihadism a nihilistic attitude toward the present state of society that will be overcome through an exaltation of technology. The futurist project to integrate life and art is paralleled by ISIS’s desire to integrate life and religion. In both cases the result is achieved through violence. ​

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Well it's a theory.

That they are a bunch of suicidally inclined DIY fanatics who grew up watching the A-Team is another:
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On ISW Iraq Situation Report: March 1-20, 2017
Regional actors are vying to dominate the post-ISIS security structure and political order in northern Iraq. Turkey and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are threatening the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Sinjar, west of Mosul City. Sinjar is a historic flashpoint for ethnic tensions and at the center of Turkish, Iranian, and Kurdish interests. The KDP seeks to incorporate Sinjar into the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), expanding the KRG’s territorial control. Turkey supports the KDP’s desire to move against the PKK and has threatened to participate in a direct attack. The desire to move against Sinjar could bring Turkey and the KDP into conflict with Iran. Iranian-backed elements of the Popular Mobilization are stationed nearby at Tel Afar and have claimed that the PKK-backed Yazidi militia in Sinjar is part of the Popular Mobilization. Iranian-backed militias could intervene on the side of the PKK in Sinjar if Turkey or the KDP act further, escalating the conflict which could undermine post-ISIS stability in northern Iraq. Russia is also seeking to gain influence in northern Iraq through a financial relationship with the KDP, which could embolden the KDP by granting it greater independence from Baghdad. Russian-owned oil company Rosneft renegotiated a loan with the KRG to pre-finance crude oil exports to Russia on February 21. Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani later met with a senior Russian delegation in Arbil on March 1 to discuss strengthening bilateral relations between the KRG and Russia, marking the first high-level Russian delegation to visit Iraqi Kurdistan. Separately, tribal violence in southern Iraq, particularly in Maysan Province, signals rising intra-Shi’a competition ahead of provincial elections in September 2017.
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The intra-Kurdish conflict in Sinjar is part of Turkey's war with the PKK. Not that there is any love lost between the PKK and the KDP. The Barzani clan who basically run Irbil via the KDP these days are mainly Turkish vassals with good relations with the US. However they've been in past they've been both Russian and Iranian clients.
 

Well the dramatic distinction the Western MSM draws between the IS fronted rising in Iraq and the rebellion in Syria I'm told isn't really present in the Arabic GCC press. Tikrit's fall to Iraqi forces with a prominent IRGC involvement was viewed as a disaster. The fall of IS held Mosul was always going to be be seen as akin to the crushing of the East Aleppo pocket. The cities have historic links and many similarities. The inevitably bloody military mechanics are similar there's just not going to be any retreat in state provided green buses from Mosul. Unlike in Aleppo the Iraqis have overwhelming force so there's no need to compromise.
 
In The LRB Beware of Cows
The statistics make grim reading. In a 2013 report, Overview of Fatal Incidents Involving Cattle, the Health and Safety Executive notes in its usual lapidary prose that ‘this paper gives an overview of fatal incidents involving cattle to (a) Enable Agriculture Industry Advisory Committee members to consider the current trends in agriculture accidents involving cattle.’ There is no room for complacency. The HSE logs 74 ‘fatalities involving cattle’ in the UK in 2000-15, compared to 53 deaths caused by Islamist terrorism in the same period.Many of the victims were farm workers, while eighteen were ‘MOPs’ or members of the public. These victims were disproportionately older people (only one was under 50, thirteen were over 60 and as many as five were over 70).

More chilling still, as the HSE report makes clear, is the specific threat posed by out-of-control mothering cows. Of incident reports where the gender of the assailant was identified, ten involved cows with calves, and only one a bull. Hence it emerges that predominantly older people are being targeted by nursing cattle. Vegans seem largely to have been spared. But nobody is wholly safe from this civilisational threat, not just to our persons but to our old, carnivorous values.
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The hate us for our Edam.
 
On Musing On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 157, March 24, 2017
The Mosul offensive has ground down into a stalemate. While areas are still regularly freed, they are relatively small, and the Iraqi forces (ISF) have not been able to make any serious advances into the Old City district along the Tigris River. Poor weather has limited air support and led the ISF to start and stop their operations again and again over the last few weeks. The dense layout of the area has meant the ISF are not able to use their vehicles many times. Finally, the Islamic State is putting up a tough defense. They have an extensive tunnel system underneath the city. They have burrowed holes through walls to allow them to move house to house without venturing outside. They have blocked off streets with cars, burned fires to obscure visibility, deployed snipers upon rooftops, and constantly moved back and forth through areas to try to avoid enemy fire.

Reuters that the ISF are thinking about attacking from different directions to make the insurgents fight on multiple fronts. General Yahya Rasool also talked about new plans being devised. Fighting in east Mosul ground to a virtual halt for a period as well. The ISF changed to a broad front with better coordination to stretch out the Islamic State and were able to gain back the momentum and take half the city. They are now hoping for a repeat of that.
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teqniq said:
You do realise that I posted a link about the Mosul airstrike on the day it actually happened or has this thread become your own personal reference work?

The Islamic state
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I did notice, the one above is interesting more because of Airwars having trouble tracking all the Coalition mass casualty incidents which now appear to be exceeding the civilian butchers bill from prior R+6 activities.


This was entirely predictable as the Coalition moves on big IS urban centres even without Trump loosening the RoE.
 

I saw 200 82nd Airborne Division troops were being dispatched to the ME today so I guess they are headed to Mosul.
 
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On AAA ISIS Has Growing Number of Sympathizers in Lebanon’s Ain el-Hilweh Camp
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Once safe passage to Syria and Iraq was no longer available, would-be extremists have sought refuge in Ain el-Hilweh, raising security fears in the camp after Lebanese security agencies were informed that sympathy for ISIS was growing among them, especially after some of those who had fought with the extremist group in Syria had returned to the camp. Estimates say however that the number of these sympathizers is not high and has grown limited after the Lebanese army intelligence’s arrest in September of Imad Yassine, head of the Usbat al-Ansar group that had sworn allegiance to ISIS.

Debate on the presence of ISIS in Ain el-Hilweh began to take a serious turn in 2015 in wake of statements made by Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashqnouq after the twin suicide bombings in the Jabal Mohsen neighborhood in the northern city of Tripoli in January of that same year. The minister spoke of a new “zone of death” for ISIS in Lebanon that starts from the border region of Arsal, Ain el-Hilweh and Roumieh Prison in Lebanon and extends to Iraq and Syria.

ISIS has meanwhile not announced its official presence in Lebanon, but it is instead apparently relying on other extremist groups, such as al-Shabab al-Muslim, that includes members of the Fatah al-Islam organization that had waged battles with the Lebanese army in the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared in 2007. Prominent Palestinian sources in Ain el-Hilweh said however that the actual number of ISIS members or those who had sworn allegiance to it is very low. It has far more sympathizers than actual members, they explained.

The emergence of ISIS in Ain el-Hilweh has affected the influence of Islamist organizations that had been active in the camp. The camp, traditionally, is subject to the control of the Fatah movement that has the strongest presence on the ground. It is followed by the Hamas group. Other factions include the Islamic Jihad and Palestinian Liberation Front.

Extremist groups include Usbat al-Ansar and al-Shabab al-Muslim, whose members support ISIS and al-Nusra Front.
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Up by Sidon.
 
On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 161, March 26, 2017
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March 25 the ISF announced the halt of their operations in west Mosul because of Jadida, but that too was not true. They made advance that day, and on March 26 as well. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division were still making slow progress trying to take the Nuri Grand Mosque near the Tigris River, and attacked the Baran area. According to the Iraqi Observatory for Human Rights the Islamic State seized 197 children and took them to the mosque to be used as human shields. The Wadi Ain and Rajim al-Hadid neighborhoods were officially declared freed by the Golden Division. That unit claimed they took both on March 22. Overall, the ISF have only made minimal progress in the Old City since it assaulted it a few weeks ago. The dense layout, the narrow streets, and Islamic State defenses have all complicated the fighting. The stalemate is leading the ISF to re-evaluate its strategy. They did this before when things slowed in east Mosul and successfully came up with a new game plan to regain the initiative. What appears to be happening is that the police forces are continuing their push into the Old City, while the Golden Division are moving north on the other side of the city bypassing the district perhaps to attack it from the flank or surround it.

To the west of Mosul, the 9th Division and Hashd took a cement factory and dam in the Badush district. These forces were originally supposed to attack Mosul from the west and open a third front, but they have been in Badush for weeks now. If they make a drive on the city, they could help change the dynamic.
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On The Arab Weekly US and allies talk of post-ISIS future, but have no plan
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Abadi made it clear that he did not think there was a quick fix to the problem. “Committing troops is one thing,” the prime minister said in a speech after his meeting with Trump at the United States Institute of Peace, a non-partisan Washington think-tank created by the US Congress. “Fighting terrorism is another thing. You don’t defeat terrorism by fighting it militarily. There are better ways,” Abadi said.

He said he would like “more funds” to bring services and stable conditions to people in areas from which ISIS had been driven out. This strategy was crucial to winning over Sunni Iraqis after ISIS was gone, Abadi said.

Sarhang Hamasaeed, director of Middle East programmes at the Institute of Peace, said Abadi was hoping for US assistance in training Iraqi troops and for US military help in logistical and intelligence support. “Abadi thinks American troops on the ground are not necessary,” Hamasaeed said.

Economic help was also on Abadi’s mind in Washington. Given that Iraq’s economy is almost entirely dependent on oil exports and is suffering in an era of low oil prices, the prime minister is hoping that the US and its Western allies will step up their financial efforts.

Some participants in the Washington conference voiced disappointment about the absence of a strategy that they had hoped would be presented by the Trump administration. “I was hoping for more specifics,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said, according to news reports.

CNN quoted a senior Arab diplomat as saying that “right now it’s about short-term tactical moves”. The diplomat added that a comprehensive strategy would have to also take into account Iran, which is seen as a major threat by Sunni Arab countries.

One of the difficulties in arriving at a major strategy is that conditions in the region do not allow for a one-size-fits-all solution. “There’s the need, there’s what the US and its allies are able and willing to do, and then there’s reality,” Hamasaeed said.
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I'm not seeing Trump rushing to reconstruct Iraq once again.
 
Paints a very bleak picture which I imagine plenty of people who have been following this already knew or guessed. Iraq as a failed state, sectarian divisions everywhere, likewise warlords and various militias, the losers as per usual are the civilians.

What the war on terror looks like
 
On Talisman Gate Will it be Trump’s policy for the Middle East, or Hillary’s?
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With the Turks in Raqqa, and the Saudis in Deir Azzour, and the Iranians held back, better concessions can be drawn out from the Assad regime, consequently leading to a settlement of the Syrian conflict, or so the thinking goes. The Emiratis and Jordanians are already going around Washington seeding the soil with the notion that an accommodation with the Assad regime is the only realistic endpoint of this conflict. The Emiratis have taken on this role because the Saudis haven’t left much for them to do, and even though the Emiratis may voice their doubts about Bin Salman’s plans to their friends in the administration, they also know that they don’t have the strategic wherewithal to be a substitute for the Saudis as regional players; remember Qatar? The Jordanians for their part want Bashar al-Assad to know that they are not coming after him, so that he doesn’t come after them. Besides, there’s little the Jordanians can do other than go along with what the Americans and the Saudis want. The Egyptians once thought that Trump would champion them back into a pan-regional role, only to find out that with Trump you need to give before you can take, and Gen. Sisi has little to give. So, they’ll just go along with the ride on this all-expense-paid Saudi adventure.

There are some potential glitches. First, the Iranians may not sit back and let this unfold. Second, the Saudis are up to their necks in Yemen, and cannot be assured that their forces would perform well in an equally complicated battlefield like that in southern and eastern Syria. Third, many of Bin Salman’s cousins find it foolish to engage in another cross-border military adventure; in fact, many think of him as a fool to begin with, according to press reports here and there. Fourth, for all this to work, there needs to be lots of Saudi and Gulf money lubricating the wheels, and it stands to reason that the price tag—rebuilding Syria, rebuilding Sunni Iraq, paying off Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, and Russia, and paying for U.S. military cover—may be so hefty, that even the Saudis wouldn’t be able to afford it. These are, for the most part, the same arguments that led the Obama administration to turn down Saudi Arabia’s offer of intervention in Syria made a year ago.

That said, a military luminary as significant as General Petraeus has personally vouched that the Saudi military can now take on military tasks in Syria, having learned many painful lessons from its sojourn into Yemen. Besides, one need not be up to the standards of the U.S. military to still fight and win wars; by that measure, even the British wouldn’t pass muster. Moreover, the vestiges of the Islamic State in southern Syria and in the Euphrates Valley are a much softer target nowadays after the jihadists had been savaged by fighting against the Iraqi military and the YPG/SDF. And if the Oval Office has taken a shine to Bin Salman, there’s very little his cousins can do to position themselves as a counterweight to him within the familial hierarchy. As for how Saudi is supposed to finance this war, well, a few hundred billion over five years would still go further than what any other international or regional actor is willing to pay.
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Ends with the idea that instead of being seduced by useless GCC allies maybe the US should rely more on the folk who've done most the fighting against IS the Iraqis. It might be a preferable idea to Prince Mo's unlikely plan for an Iraqi force to chase IS into Syria and break the IS siege of Deir after Mosul falls. Well I'm sure that would not be pretty but at least there's no need to summon a unicorn army.

Going for Deir is what the Iranians may want to do judging by what some of their Iraqi assets have been saying. The author here thinks so to. Damascus and Baghdad are already collaborating on airstrikes.

Turkey and the PKK are both somewhat disabled by mutual hatred. I certainly would not bet on Prince Mo after the mess he's made of Yemen. The Saudis stoking sectarian hatred are every bit as a malign a force as Iran. There's a great deal wrong with post-Saddam Iraq but looking at all the players actually it's Baghdad that has the best chance of eventually creating some stability along the Euphrates.

DC might do better to stop sulkily whinging about young Baghdad's lack of perfection and work on developing the relationship that Obama neglected. After all that was to Iran's advantage. Being distracted by games in Syria with Baghdad still in play was part of his mistake.
 
Idris2002 said:
The Cato Institute are a gang of cunts who helped create the environment in which scum like Breitbart can flourish.
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On Cato Trump Is the Nativist Dream Candidate and
In the Trump Administration, Islamophobia Is Truly a Family Affair via their search function.
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Thousands of Arab- and Muslim-Americans continue to serve honorably, and often heroically, in our armed forces today, shedding their blood when necessary even as Sebastian and Katherine Gorka demonize them and their faith. We don’t yet know whether Katherine Gorka will be nominated for a position at DHS or elsewhere in the Trump administration. We do know her husband will be in the White House, bending the ear of a demonstrably paranoid and narcissistic Commander-in-Chief. Based on his track record, I think we can well imagine what Gorka is going to suggest to Trump.

The sky has indeed grown dark over America.
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Funnily enough some of the gibbering libertarian Cato folk seem to really hate the Trump/Bannon nexus even more than lefties.
 
On MEE IS beheads two for 'sorcery' in Egypt's Sinai
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In the video, two elderly men appear in orange jumpsuits and are taken out of a black van and led to the desert, where they are beheaded. A man reads out what he says is a verdict from a Sharia court condemning them to death for "apostasy, sorcery, claiming the ability to tell the future, and leading people to polytheism".

IS uses the terms sorcerers and heretics to refer to adherents of Sufism, a form of Islam involving mystical rituals that has been practised for centuries.

IS has killed hundreds of soldiers and police in Sinai since 2013, when fighting intensified, but the video shows the militants are expanding their activities to target civilians.

"Thanks be to God who has allowed the Islamic State's soldiers in Sinai in applying his law and instituting religion in spite of all the infidels, apostates and envious Jews," one fighter can be seen and heard saying.

In the video, which is also notable for the fact that the men speaking in it are unmasked, militants are shown seizing trucks full of cigarettes and drugs, and then burning them.

They are also seen handing out fliers with religious advice to motorists at checkpoints and raiding a Sufi gathering and arresting a number of men, who are given a religious sermon and then made to sign a document saying they will repent.

Militants are also seen smashing television sets and satellite dishes, destroying tombs they say go against Islamic burial laws, and using sticks to beat men accused of smuggling. They are shown blowing up what they describe as Sufi shrines.
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Lots of Sufi inflected practices all over the Islamic world.
 

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Brig. Gen. Matthew Isler, deputy commanding general for Air, Combined Joint Forces Land Component Command, Operation Inherent Resolve, said in an interview that coalition aircraft above Mosul have dropped more than 500 precision-guided munitions a week so far in March — even hitting as high as 605 weapons in one week. The weapons released were all in support of Iraqi Security Forces pushing further into the western part of Mosul, Isler said.

The increased airstrikes over Mosul come as the number of weapons released against ISIS overall continues to grow. According to Air Force statistics, military aircraft from the U.S. and other coalition nations released more than 7,000 weapons against ISIS in January and February — the most of any two-month stretch since the ISIS war began more than two and a half years ago.
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And it's quite a crowded city and IS are very obviously using human shields. They were even kidnapping people earlier for that purpose. I do wonder if they're under reporting casualties.
 
On Musings On Iraq Mosul Campaign Day 162, March 27, 2017
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The Iraqi forces (ISF) made contradictory remarks about their operations in Mosul. General Othman Ghanmi army chief of staff issued a statement that 50% of west Mosul was now under government control. ISF commanders have issued different figures and percentages on their progress based upon varying measurements. 50% is roughly right based upon the area of west Mosul. General Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah said there was no time limit on how long it would take to free the rest of the city. The government forces are fighting street to street, and the weather has been a hindrance as well. On the other hand the spokesman for the Joint Operations Command claimed that the battle for Mosul was done. The battle in fact has hit a stalemate forcing the Iraqi forces to change their battle plan. What is new is that the Golden Division has moved up the western side of the Old City district and to prepare to attack the Islamic State from its flank. Federal Police Commander Raed Jawadat stated that the Federal Police and the Rapid Reaction Division were making rapid progress in their assault upon the Old City. Some small advances were made. The two police forces are still aiming to taking the Grand Mosque in the district. The Golden Division’s General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi told the press that the Islamic State’s defenses had been destroyed around the mosque. That’s yet to be seen as the police are still roughly in the same area they have been for over a week now. Finally, according to a Federal Police officer reinforcements and 80 armored personnel carriers arrived as part of the change in tactics in the campaign. Those will not likely be used in the Old City where many of the streets are too narrow for vehicles to be used. They could also just be replacements to make up for losses.
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Touch of Comical Ali syndrome there.
 
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