CrabbedOne
Walking sideways snippily
On Al Monitor Iraq's 'Awakening' vets cautious about post-IS period
The Sahwa this time round was a much smaller affair. Last time large numbers of Sunni Arabs with US support eventually fought the insurgency that a lot of them had been part of. Too many felt they were betrayed by the US and persecuted by Baghdad last time. After its last strategic defeat IS quickly targeted them for assassination or cooption. Some ended up fighting for IS. This experience also effected attempts to recruit tribal forces to fight IS in Eastern Syria that ISW have been talking up again recently. The perception that the US was an unreliable ally just using men only to abandon them was a damaging one....
The operation to retake the western part of Anbar, which is still under IS control, has been put on hold. The Iraqi government's current priority is to retake western Mosul.
The tribal-based Sunni militias, known as Hashd al-Ashairi, are expected to play a dominant role in their native area, though within the PMU they are a small minority.
An Iraqi law passed on Nov. 26 made the PMU an official body, with salaries and pensions for the fighters. The law caps the number of fighters at 50,000, 15,000 of whom are supposed to be Sunni.
As Omar Sattar reported for Al-Monitor in early December, "Current figures indicate that there are 150,000 fighters in the [mobilization units'] ranks. The 2017 budget, however, includes funding for 110,000 fighters …," making it unclear who will be provided with salaries and who will not.
A security officer told Al-Monitor that the push west toward the Syrian border is expected to resume "soon," but that no official date had been set.
The various local tribal fighters, as well as information from informants on the ground, will be key to the fight. How those who take part in the fighting are treated afterward will likely be a decisive factor for Iraqi security in the years to come.