The actual covid risk on public transport

[teuchter]

My feeling, which may be subject to my own bias, is that public transport has ended up being excessively stigmatised as a major source of infection.

Here's a thread to collect information on what we do and don't know about infection risk on public transport. I'll start with this article from El Pais.

Why you shouldn’t be afraid to take public transportation amid the Covid-19 pandemic

According to Spanish health experts, the risk of contagion on buses and trains is low thanks to safety measures like the use of face masks, as well as improved ventilation systems

english.elpais.com

 

[Chilli.s]

Whenever I used public transport in BC times, I was crammed in shoulder to shoulder with loads of other people. Smelling their breath, perfume or toothpaste in a dirty bus or carriage. So no, I don't agree with you.

 

[WouldBe]

Improved ventilation system on British busses? What have they done, taken all the windows out?

 

[Teaboy]

Whenever I used public transport in BC times, I was crammed in shoulder to shoulder with loads of other people. Smelling their breath, perfume or toothpaste in a dirty bus or carriage. So no, I don't agree with you.

Here in lies the problem I think. People associate public transport and in particular the London underground with extreme overcrowding. Under those circumstances the ventilation measures are somewhat irrelevant.

I'd be fine getting on a half empty train I think. Less so about a full one and a big no for a overcrowded one.

ETA: Also they keep telling us that planes are completely fine as well because of the way they use air but when me and my g/f became ill with likely covid back in early march it was 4 days after a plane journey with a bloke coughing away behind us.

 

[Chilli.s]

Have they laid on a load of trains so you get the seat you paid for

 

[teuchter]

Whenever I used public transport in BC times, I was crammed in shoulder to shoulder with loads of other people. Smelling their breath, perfume or toothpaste in a dirty bus or carriage. So no, I don't agree with you.

To compare apples with apples, we should be considering, for example, a rammed bus vs. a rammed pub.

Or, a bus with 1 in 3 seats occupied vs. a pub with spaced out tables and no-one standing.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Half empty train? Probably fine.

The usual rush hour trains here in B’ham, where you’re often only held upright by being squashed against those around you? Not so much.

 

[platinumsage]

To compare apples with apples, we should be considering, for example, a rammed bus vs. a rammed pub.

Or, a bus with 1 in 3 seats occupied vs. a pub with spaced out tables and no-one standing.

Surely we should be comparing the alternatives. Commuting on a train or bus that may or may not become rammed and on which some people may not be wearing masks vs. driving, walking, cycling or staying at home. This is the actual decision people make when assessing whether to use public transport. Whether buses are safer than pubs is irrelevant.

If people knew everyone would be wearing masks and that capacity restrictions would actually be in place and be strictly enforced, then this would obviously help.

 

[Teaboy]

To compare apples with apples, we should be considering, for example, a rammed bus vs. a rammed pub.

Not sure that's apples and apples. People are being pressured to go back to work right now. For a lot of people that will mean public transport. There is no pressure I am aware of to go to a rammed pub.

 

[Chilli.s]

To compare apples with apples, we should be considering, for example, a rammed bus vs.

Maybe sharing a car with 6 or 7 others might be more accurate.

 

[teuchter]

I think it's useful to get a handle on perceived risk vs. actual risk. The consequences of transport decisions go beyond the individual's risk of covid infection.

If it's the case that it's riskier to go to a pub, than it is to get on a bus, and yet lots of people are happy to go to the pub but are completely avoiding public transport, then perception and therefore behaviour is out of step with reality.

 

[Pickman's model]

To compare apples with apples, we should be considering, for example, a rammed bus vs. a rammed pub.

Or, a bus with 1 in 3 seats occupied vs. a pub with spaced out tables and no-one standing.

Yeh. When you're in a pub it can take some hours, a great deal of money and alcohol to get there. And you're still where you started out before you leave. It's different on buses etc

 

[Pickman's model]

I think it's useful to get a handle on perceived risk vs. actual risk. The consequences of transport decisions go beyond the individual's risk of covid infection.

If it's the case that it's riskier to go to a pub, than it is to get on a bus, and yet lots of people are happy to go to the pub but are completely avoiding public transport, then perception and therefore behaviour is out of step with reality.

No one goes into a pub to travel

 

[teuchter]

No one goes into a pub to travel

Thanks as ever for your contributions.

 

[Pickman's model]

Thanks as ever for your contributions.

No one ever thanks you for yours

 

[Teaboy]

In general my fear would simply be overcrowding rather than anything specifically with the air. Though it should be said that it wasn't that long ago that government advice for driving was to have windows open and keep well ventilated if carrying someone outside your bubble.

The surfaces (seats and hand bars etc) seem like a perfect vector for transmission as well. Though this can and should be managed by the individual but less easy with young kids. If people are still cleaning their bags of pasta and cans of baked beans they are not likely to want to touch anything inside a train that is cleaned once a day.

 

[platinumsage]

I think it's useful to get a handle on perceived risk vs. actual risk. The consequences of transport decisions go beyond the individual's risk of covid infection.

If it's the case that it's riskier to go to a pub, than it is to get on a bus, and yet lots of people are happy to go to the pub but are completely avoiding public transport, then perception and therefore behaviour is out of step with reality.

I really don't think the people going to rammed pubs are the same people who are reluctant to get on a bus.

 

[wtfftw]

I really don't think the people going to rammed pubs are the same people who are reluctant to get on a bus.

I dunno about rammed pubs but I certainly know people who are going to pubs and restaurants but not getting public transport.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think it's useful to get a handle on perceived risk vs. actual risk. The consequences of transport decisions go beyond the individual's risk of covid infection.

If it's the case that it's riskier to go to a pub, than it is to get on a bus, and yet lots of people are happy to go to the pub but are completely avoiding public transport, then perception and therefore behaviour is out of step with reality.

Or they live close enough to pubs not to get public transport etc

 

[wtfftw]

Or they live close enough to pubs not to get public transport etc

Or they are driving everywhere and not drinking or have decided ubers are safer.

 

[bimble]

I think for me at least the anxiety associated is something to do with feeling like I can’t control what is happening on a public transport journey, whereas if I went to a pub (which I havent) i could always leave immediately if I got a maskless splutterer too close to me. That’s why the flight snd airport on Sunday felt so scary the lack of an option to just walk out or to control what was going on in the 2m around me.

 

[pesh]

I dunno about rammed pubs but I certainly know people who are going to pubs and restaurants but not getting public transport.

i've been on public transport a lot in the last week because i didn't have another option, i've still not been in a pub because i do have other options.

 

[Pickman's model]

i've been on public transport a lot in the last week because i didn't have another option, i've still not been in a pub because i do have other options.

I've been in three pubs and on public transport in the past week but not used public transport to get to or from the pubs

 

[wtfftw]

I think for me at least the anxiety associated is something to do with feeling like I can’t control what is happening on a public transport journey, whereas if I went to a pub (which I havent) i could always leave immediately if I got a maskless splutterer too close to me. That’s why the flight snd airport on Sunday felt so scary the lack of an option to just walk out or to control what was going on in the 2m around me.

Yep. and in theory track and trace would kick in for a pub but not public transport. I can easily spend too long too close to someone (with or without them wearing a mask) on a bus.

 

[skyscraper101]

I'm not keen on crowded tubes or trains with no masks at the best of times, but with enough distance and everyone wearing masks, I'm no more worried right now than I would be walking around Tesco tbh.

Right now, I'm getting a 6:12am train to work and it's just about comfortable enough for everyone to be sat with a free seat besides them. But if it gets to a point where I'm forced to stand up and people are up in my face then I may just WFH again.

 

[Saul Goodman]

To compare apples with apples, we should be considering, for example, a rammed bus vs. a rammed pub.

Or, a bus with 1 in 3 seats occupied vs. a pub with spaced out tables and no-one standing.

To compare apples to a duck-billed platypus.
Pubs aren't public transport.

and yet lots of people are happy to go to the pub but are completely avoiding public transport

Do you have any proof this is happening, or did you just make it up?

 

[Pickman's model]

Do you have any proof this is happening, or did you just make it up?

he is a pisspoor fabulist

 

[Saul Goodman]

Problem solved.

 

[Winot]

Surely ww should be comparing the alternatives. Commuting on a train or bus that may or may not become rammed and on which some people may not be wearing masks vs. driving, walking, cycling or staying at home. This is the actual decision people make when assessing whether to use public transport. Whether buses are safer than pubs is irrelevant.

If people knew everyone would be wearing masks and that capacity restrictions would actually be in place and be strictly enforced, then this would obviously help.

The relative risk is relevant when it comes to the decision about whether to close pubs while still encouraging office working.

 

[two sheds]

getting bus in late morning here would I think be fine but I wouldn't fancy coming back at school kicking out time