Systemic Collapse: The Basics
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teqniq
DisMembered
free spirit
more tea vicar?
meanwhile, last weekend Solar PV in Germany peaked at supplying almost 50% of the countries electricity requirements after a further 7GWP was installed last year.
Tbf, their grid network is now a bit stretched by this level of renewables generation, but is coping, and certainly gives the lie to those who claimed that renewables could never go above 20% penetration. The technology is now being deployed to enable the grid operators to remotely reduce inverters output if needed to prevent over supply problems, or the associated cascade failures that could occur from the current UK set up of inverters automatically cutting out at set grid frequencies.
UK installed over 1GWp last year from a virtual standing start, and despite the governments best efforts to kill us off, will probably do something similar again this year once public confidence is restored.
As for the cost... well the subsidy is about to drop to just 16p / kWh at the highest, with further FIT reductions scheduled every 3 months after that, so will likely by around grid parity by next year when compared to the actual price paid by consumers.
future's bright, doom mongers.
Tbf, their grid network is now a bit stretched by this level of renewables generation, but is coping, and certainly gives the lie to those who claimed that renewables could never go above 20% penetration. The technology is now being deployed to enable the grid operators to remotely reduce inverters output if needed to prevent over supply problems, or the associated cascade failures that could occur from the current UK set up of inverters automatically cutting out at set grid frequencies.
UK installed over 1GWp last year from a virtual standing start, and despite the governments best efforts to kill us off, will probably do something similar again this year once public confidence is restored.
As for the cost... well the subsidy is about to drop to just 16p / kWh at the highest, with further FIT reductions scheduled every 3 months after that, so will likely by around grid parity by next year when compared to the actual price paid by consumers.
future's bright, doom mongers.
[guardian]
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its an impressive achievement but I don't think you should seriously attempt to compare it to the 20% figure, since meeting 50% of the nations needs for a couple of hours on a couple of days is not the same thing really.
But like I said, it is impressive, impressive enough that I wouldn't want to spoil things by overstating it.
But like I said, it is impressive, impressive enough that I wouldn't want to spoil things by overstating it.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Or to put it another way, if you really wanted to compare that 50% to the 20% then you know the 50% is going to need to be chopped in half (crude simplification) multiple times first, to account for things such as nighttime, winter, etc. And what level was demand at when solar met 50% of the demand?
Electric vehicles are starting to make an impact too.
The new GM Volt has some impressive statistics. Of the 25 million miles driven 70% is on electricity, 30% on petrol.
http://www.voltstats.net/
Nissan Leaf is 100% electric and the Tesla Model S is out this month with a 300 mile range battery!
The new GM Volt has some impressive statistics. Of the 25 million miles driven 70% is on electricity, 30% on petrol.
http://www.voltstats.net/
Nissan Leaf is 100% electric and the Tesla Model S is out this month with a 300 mile range battery!
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes. A transition of any extent and of almost any kind is likely to leave us in a world where electricity becomes dominant in further sectors.
In this regard when it comes to gloom and concern the questions I ponder are (a) getting there without wasting resources and breaking the infrastructure through war etc and (b) what proportion of people will have affordable access to the shiny electric future.
So for example I spend more time thinking not whether the electric car will happen, but how long it takes and what percentage of the population will actually get to own & run one.
In this regard when it comes to gloom and concern the questions I ponder are (a) getting there without wasting resources and breaking the infrastructure through war etc and (b) what proportion of people will have affordable access to the shiny electric future.
So for example I spend more time thinking not whether the electric car will happen, but how long it takes and what percentage of the population will actually get to own & run one.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
right, well some definitely used to argue that the actual peak rating of all variable renewables combined couldn't equal more than 20% of supply / demand at any time otherwise the system would collapse due to the variability.
anyway, Germany was at 20% of total generation from renewables last year, and will be significantly over it this year, so the point stands either way.
demand would have been at it's standard mid day demand levels, so relatively high, but obviously below the winter evening peaks.
eta - it's actually impossible to get accurate demand level info for germany in day time anymore, same increasingly here, because embeded generation shows up as demand reduction.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
tbh, I'm impressed by that 20% overall figure. What's the figure in the uk?
free spirit
more tea vicar?
not sure, and very hard to get accurate, as I don't believe the UK currently includes embeded generation in it's figures, despite there now being over a GWp of the stuff.
proper caught the UK government on the hop, when they thought we'd still be insignificant for another 5-6 years or more.
proper caught the UK government on the hop, when they thought we'd still be insignificant for another 5-6 years or more.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I'm guessing that means microgeneration. So if you have solar panels on your roof that reduce your demand from the grid, that doesn't get counted in the figures.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I think the only certainty at this point is that they have fucked it up so far.
I wish I was surprised that Germany is so far ahead of us on this one. It speaks volume about the corruption of priorities in this country.
Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
If i was a homeowner looking to move into solar, i'd be looking at a grid-fallback system not a pure grid-tied one...
free spirit
more tea vicar?
the biggest falls have already happened IMO - 50% reduction in installed prices in 2 years, and most panel manufacturers are now operating at a loss, so I don't really see those prices falling much more for a few years.
The feed in tariff is going to be cut again from 1st August from 21p to 16p per kWh for under 4kWp systems, although partly compensated for by the export rate rising from 3.2p to 4.5p, but also significantly the FIT payments will only be for 20 years instead of the current 25 years, which won't bother some, but will impact on those looking for proper long term investments as a pension alternative etc. There will then be further reductions every 3 months after that, with the size of the reduction depending on the rate of deployment... it's a wee bit complicated.
4kWp should be around £7k now at the bottom end, £9.5-10k for the top end most efficient kit, and returns should be around the 10-12% mark for unshaded south facing 4kWp systems, more like 7-10% for lower rated systems or east west facing etc.
The price will drop further after august, but I doubt it'll be by more than the FIT reductions, so in financial return terms, now is going to be the best time to do it I'd think.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
all they are essentially are glorified UPS set ups unless you're paying silly money for them (and even the UPS set ups are stupidly expensive), and really not justified unless you have some serious reason for ensuring the power never goes down IMO.
Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
I work on a stage/sound system that is what you effectively describe as a 'glorified ups' and, if i were to invest in domestic solar, i would do it this way. Not everything has to be bought brand new y'know
E2A -It also helps that i know how to set it all up, at least from the domestic side of things... the grid-tie end i may need an expert in on though
free spirit
more tea vicar?
The problem is that grid connect inverters work most efficiently with solar input voltages of around 350-450V, whereas standard battery charging systems usually work at around 24 or 48V. You therefore can't charge the batteries directly from the same solar panels, at least not without some complex switching set up.I work on a stage/sound system that is what you effectively describe as a 'glorified ups' and, if i were to invest in domestic solar, i would do it this way. Not everything has to be bought brand new y'know
E2A -It also helps that i know how to set it all up, at least from the domestic side of things... the grid-tie end i may need an expert in on though
The grid connect inverters also will only operate while connected to the grid, so can't be used to run off the batteries or direct from the solar when the grid fails, so to operate a system that works both on and off grid you would need 2 separate inverters... plus the batteries, plus the charge controller etc.
So even if you DIY it, you're looking at some serious additional expense even for a glorified UPS set up, a lot more if you want to be able to power the entire house off it.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
It's better than that, the FIT rates are index linked to RPI, tax free, and it'd be illegal for the government to change them retrospectively - seriously, there is no better long term financial investment available in the UK if you've got the money, although the money is then tied up completely for the lifetime of the system. For most it's a bit like a part of a pension plan type arrangement.
That's why they've had to cut the rates so severely for new systems, because they can't touch the rate for existing systems.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
£7-8k up front investment for a 4kWp system on a south facing roof should generate between £850-950 returns in the first year from FIT payments, export payments and savings on your electricity bill.
If you were to use the annualised method of calculating average returns over the 25 year lifetime of the scheme including index linked increases and increased energy costs this could well be more like 16-20% depending on your assumptions, then factor in your income tax savings...... we generally don't do this in our headline figures as it's more confusing, but it's a valid way of doing it, and is how the Sunday Times money people assessed it a while back.
These are figures for leeds, so ought to be better further south.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
as you can see, the next FIT cut probably is justified on this sort of basis, the problem is that the impact of the negative publicity from the last round of cuts has led to a massive loss of public confidence in it.
As far as I can see though this loss of confidence is just not justified at all, as if they were going to ever make any retrospective cuts then that would have been the time to have done it, and the supreme court have now clarified that retrospective changes are definitely illegal, so if anything confidence ought to be higher.
As far as I can see though this loss of confidence is just not justified at all, as if they were going to ever make any retrospective cuts then that would have been the time to have done it, and the supreme court have now clarified that retrospective changes are definitely illegal, so if anything confidence ought to be higher.
Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
I'm aware of the voltage differences between grid-tie and standard battery charging systems, I have been doing off-grid power for around a decade now so am not a total ignoramus here. Household-wise i was only looking at the stuff that a battery system could easily handle like lighting, computer, fridge, freezer, that sort of thing. Although that doesn't seem like much, it would seriously add up if scaled and would help to mitigate the issues regarding supply stability currently inherent in wind/solar grid-tie.
The panel switching wouldn't necessarily be complicated, the wiring going into the switcher from the panels could be somewhat 'fun' to arrange though
I am also aware of the expense... I didn't just come up with this during my coffee break
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
Bloody hell. If you've got the money, you'd be mad not to.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Which is part of the problem with this system, isn't it? It's the already-rich who are taking advantage.
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