Recent attacks in Iraq

[coley]

Does Western int actually know how many IS fighters are even on the ground? And there's no such thing as a "straight fight" in the desert mountains.

Aye but the beauty of the current situation is that the IS have either killed or driven out civilians so any attack on Their positions is going to kill only them or their supporters, they have created a free fire zone and should be dealt with asp before they realise their mistake.

 

[butchersapron]

Aye but the beauty of the current situation is that the IS have either killed or driven out civilians so any attack on Their positions is going to kill only them or their supporters, they have created a free fire zone and should be dealt with asp before they realise their mistake.

There's millions of Sunni living in the towns cities and villages they now control. They've not gone anywhere.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Aye but the beauty of the current situation is that the IS have either killed or driven out civilians so any attack on Their positions is going to kill only them or their supporters, they have created a free fire zone and should be dealt with asp before they realise their mistake.

Grunts on the ground isn't going to be an option for the West, however "beautiful" the situation appears.

 

[coley]

There's millions of Sunni living in the towns cities and villages they now control. They've not gone anywhere.

But there are large areas that have been depopulated due to people fleeing,these are the places where they could be targeted without too many civilian casualties.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Just getting this - unconfirmed.

@MiddleEast_BRK
#BREAKINGREPORTS IS started its attack on #Baghdad. Suicide car bombs and battles on the city's outskirts.

 

[coley]

Grunts on the ground isn't going to be an option for the West, however "beautiful" the situation appears.

I think we agree, for various reasons,the politicians won't commit ground troops but there is a window of opportunity to do them serious harm without to much collateral damage if people just sit around tinkering they will consolidate their position and we will have an entity that will cause us more grief than AQ has.

 

[butchersapron]

But there are large areas that have been depopulated due to people fleeing,these are the places where they could be targeted without too many civilian casualties.

The non-sunni populations of those areas have gone. The sunni remain. These weren't exclusive christian etc towns.

 

[coley]

The non-sunni populations of those areas have gone. The sunni remain. These weren't exclusive christian etc towns.

If Mr Bs reports are accurate than it won't really matter will it?

 

[elbows]

The Maliki stuff reminds me of what happened in Yemen when the US decided that Saleh would have to go. But I'm sure plenty of the similarities are superficial and it won't pan out in quite the same way.

All rumours most welcome right now since its gone a bit quiet on the official news front.

 

[elbows]

Just getting this - unconfirmed.

@MiddleEast_BRK
#BREAKINGREPORTS IS started its attack on #Baghdad. Suicide car bombs and battles on the city's outskirts.

Hou Yi @HouyiHK · 8m
@MiddleEast_BRK The source of this report has kind of retracted this statement. Baghdad appears fairly quite 2 a number of users who r there

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Hou Yi @HouyiHK · 8m
@MiddleEast_BRK The source of this report has kind of retracted this statement. Baghdad appears fairly quite 2 a number of users who r there

Unconfirmed it is then.

 

[SpookyFrank]

What chances of Maliki going quietly I wonder?

 

[teqniq]

More speculation possibly linked to the above

Nervana_1: Maliki is clearly planning to stir violence and instability. A dirty war while ISIS can head to Baghdad at any time! #shameless #Maliki

 

[SpookyFrank]

More speculation possibly linked to the above

Well the timing of reports of trouble in Baghdad seems strange, particularly considering Maliki has been deploying special forces around the city in recent days.

 

[coley]

Well the timing of reports of trouble in Baghdad seems strange, particularly considering Maliki has been deploying special forces around the city in recent days.

Pity those 'special forces' aren't being used more constructively.

 

[free spirit]

Aye but the beauty of the current situation is that the IS have either killed or driven out civilians so any attack on Their positions is going to kill only them or their supporters, they have created a free fire zone and should be dealt with asp before they realise their mistake.

That's exactly how the worst of the zionist IDF cheerleaders think about Gaza.

ps Sunni civilians are still civilians.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Pity those 'special forces' aren't being used more constructively.

Well hopefully they'll stay put and remain loyal to the new government, in which case they might come in very handy very soon.

 

[coley]

That's exactly how the worst of the zionist IDF cheerleaders think about Gaza.

ps Sunni civilians are still civilians.

It's a good point but HAMAS and the Gazans aren't butchering and terrorising large areas of the ME are they? And from what I can make out they are, at present,distinguishable from civilians given they are grouped in loose formation and I am not suggesting targeting buildings but military convoys or vehicles.

 

[coley]

Well hopefully they'll stay put and remain loyal to the new government, in which case they might come in very handy very soon.

Or they will all end up fighting each other allowing the IS a walkover. You would think the situation would have concentrated attention on the main problem but they are squabbling over who is going to be president, there won't be anything to be president of afore much longer.

 

[free spirit]

It's a good point but HAMAS and the Gazans aren't butchering and terrorising large areas of the ME are they? And from what I can make out they are, at present,distinguishable from civilians given they are grouped in loose formation and I am not suggesting targeting buildings but military convoys or vehicles.

badly worded then, it sounded like you were implying anyone left in the IS area was fair game.

yes the convoys between the various fronts ought to be fairly easy for air power to pick off, and if they can't move their troops and weapons from one point to another they'd then be very vulnerable to counter attacks by organisations / armies who were able to move their troops and weapons about.

No doubt the US will manage to blow up a few wedding party convoy along the way though, as presumably the intel on the ground will be a little scarce.

 

[elbows]

Or they will all end up fighting each other allowing the IS a walkover. You would think the situation would have concentrated attention on the main problem but they are squabbling over who is going to be president, there won't be anything to be president of afore much longer.

I don't think I've heard anything that struck me as an obviously realistic assessment of Baghdads chances of falling from our media.

I think this is partly because the Maliki situation and the IS situation have been made temporarily inseparable in quite a number of ways, by more than one player. Only with the end of the game of him in power vs him being ousted will I gradually (or perhaps suddenly) get a chance to re-evaluate this.

However I will tentatively say that if IS didn't go for Baghdad before US airpower got involved, I see little reason why they are likely to now. And even if they defeated its defenders militarily, its kind of hard to imagine them holding sway over the inhabitants of the city in an effective manner. It's never been clear to me that Baghdad is a prize they would seriously go after, and the timetable of fears about this are too closely aligned with the timetable for Malikis departure for me to entirely eliminate some cynical possibilities.

 

[SpookyFrank]

won't happen though, anyone who thinks - regardless of the wisdom or not of it - that Cameron has the bollocks for such a conflict 8 months before an election is smoking crack.

Mr Cameron, who is on holiday in Portugal, remains "very much engaged" with decision-making on Iraq, his spokeswoman said.

Well, that's me reassured

 

[gawkrodger]

11 SAS are already there. Probably more adept than grunts tbh.

source? I'd be very surprised if there wasn't some SF lurking but still

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Personal source. There's a Telegraph article from June that hinted.

There will always be SF on the ground to direct air strikes when dealing with these situations.

 

[kebabking]

i'd pretty much agree with elbows - for ISIS the military situation can only get more adverse, movement is going to get more difficult every day, and their spectaculars are going to get progressively less spectacular as the other players get stronger and more integrated. going for Baghdad is going to have them running through every Iraqi OP going, and the entire Iraqi air force, as well as the USN F/A-18's are going to turn up and give them the good news while they are on the highway.

however, the other side to that is that this is the last opportunity they're going to get, and depending on their view of martyrdom, they might see otherthrowing Baghdad as being worth it.

personally i see them digging in and making using JDAM's politically difficult by digging in in the population centres - i think that when they start to feel airpower pinch (and they haven't yet, when the USN is flying 100 attack sorties a day they'll start learning) they'll decide that free-wheeling in the open desert is a mugs game.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

In Iraq and in Gaza, victory is inevitable.

 

[kebabking]

In Iraq and in Gaza, victory is inevitable.

and you'll be going to help achieve that victory - of course?

 

[ska invita]

destroying the Mosul Dam might be a leveller for them

 

[SpookyFrank]

In Iraq and in Gaza, victory is inevitable.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

What a rhetorical question! I am not even permitted to reply to it.

Nonetheless even if I were not to go to fight, my statements wouldn't have to be qualified by picking up my sword.