Political polling

[Brixton Hatter]

There doesn't appear to be any significant change in the polling over recent days/weeks….pretty much everything is within the margin of error +/- 3%.

There's bound to be a few surprises and upsets, but if pollsters and bookies are right I reckon we're looking at:

Con 272-282
Lab 265-275
SNP 49-57
Ld 25-29
UKIP 1-3
Grn 1

 

[brogdale]

There doesn't appear to be any significant change in the polling over recent days/weeks….pretty much everything is within the margin of error +/- 3%.

There's bound to be a few surprises and upsets, but if pollsters and bookies are right I reckon we're looking at:

Con 372-382
Lab 365-375
SNP 49-57
Ld 25-29
UKIP 1-3
Grn 1

Even through my #bishopsfingerheaven I can tell those top numbers are la la

 

[mk12]

There doesn't appear to be any significant change in the polling over recent days/weeks….pretty much everything is within the margin of error +/- 3%.

There's bound to be a few surprises and upsets, but if pollsters and bookies are right I reckon we're looking at:

Con 372-382
Lab 365-375
SNP 49-57
Ld 25-29
UKIP 1-3
Grn 1

Do you mean 272-282 for Cons, and 265-275 for Lab?

 

[William of Walworth]

For 3's read 2's as the first digit of those 3-figure Lab/Con ones ....

ETA mk12 beat me to it ...

 

[Brixton Hatter]

whoops ha ha, someone's swapped the keys round on the laptop



[no alcohol was involved in the production of these figures]

 

[mk12]

For 3's read 2's as the first digit of those 3-figure Lab/Con ones ....

ETA mk12 beat me to it ...

I was going to say! What happens if Labour and the Tories gained a majority?!

 

[Brixton Hatter]

I was going to say! What happens if Labour and[\i] the Tories gained a majority?!

they would run out of green benches!

 

[Andrew Hertford]

BBC News just now asking people on the street have they made their mind up. People saying no, not yet. "I'm 95% there" said one, another said, "I'll decide when I get to the ballot" - jaysus fucking christ, what the actual fuck is wrong with these people?

Blame FPTP. I haven't decided yet either, I want Labour to form the next government but whatever I do in the safe tory constituency where I live won't make a blind bit of difference. I'll probably vote Green because a big turn out for them nationally will at least send the message that some of us still think that global warming is an important issue.

I'm 96% there.

 

[Wilf]

Yes, but though Labour will beat the tories in Scotish votes, it won't got m/any seats. Whether you can add the snp to the seats Lab get in England depends on how daft Miliband wants to be after the election.

What I think I'm trying to say is that something like those figures for eng and wales might actually leave the tories on more seats than labour for the whole uk (though, as always the translation of votes into seats will be messy).

 

[treelover]

Labour has one-point lead over Tories in final Guardian/ICM poll
Labour has moved into a wafer-thin one-point lead in the final pre-election Guardian/ICM poll, leaving the country on a knife-edge with the markets starting to jitter.

On Wednesday, ICM released provisional numbers which showed the two main parties deadlocked on 35% each. But the telephone fieldwork continued into evening, and the final figures – based on the full sample of 2,000 interviews – find Labour holding steady on 35%, while the Conservatives slip to 34%.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/labour-one-point-lead-tories-final-icm-poll

Bit surprised at this, but Ed has run a dynamic if sterile campaign and people have seen there is more to him(though I still don't trust the party itself) but I still think shy tories and ukip drifters will manifest themselves as the day goes on.

 

[treelover]

FFS, apparently the Telegraph emailed its readers begging them to vote Tory.

from G update, can't link.

 

[Quartz]

FFS, apparently the Telegraph emailed its readers begging them to vote Tory.

It could be worse: they could have urged them to vote UKIP.

 

[treelover]

With its double-size sample, the final poll gives more scope than usual for looking for difference in voting patterns across different types of parliamentary seat. Doing so provides additional grounds for Labour optimism. In the English and Welsh battleground constituencies – defined as those with a Tory majority of up to 15 points, or a Labour advantage of no more than 10 points – today’s poll finds the the opposition running well ahead.

On average across these seats, the Conservatives start out with a 2010 score of 38% to Labour’s 36%. But today’s poll suggests that Labour is now well in front here, by 46% to 35%. Based on the sub-sample of 290 individuals in these marginal seats, some caution is needed, but Labour’s 11-point advantage is wide enough to give the party real hope.

Significant?

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

290 across all battleground seats? those kind of figures have caused problems for the Irish pollsters before

 

[Wilf]

Significant?

It's certainly significant in terms of the trends from the icm/guardian polls. Think they've gone from con leads of 6% and then 3%, to a tie, to now Lab up 1%.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Just put a £10 on Labour to get most seats at 7/2. Great odds surely for something which is more like 50/50?

 

[Wilf]

290 across all battleground seats? those kind of figures have caused problems for the Irish pollsters before

Ah!

 

[Wilf]

Amazing how close the polls have been for the last month. Virtually no drift:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Just put a £10 on Labour to get most seats at 7/2. Great odds surely for something which is more like 50/50?

How is it 50/50 if more people are betting Tories will get most seats?

 

[treelover]

People are mentioning The SUN Poll also showing one point lead for Labour, can't find it though

 

[butchersapron]

People are mentioning The SUN Poll also showing one point lead for Labour, can't find it though

That's because it doesn't exist. At least not showing a labour lead. They had it level.

 

[mather]

It could be worse: they could have urged them to vote UKIP.

How is that worse???

I'm all for UKIP gaining more seats (at the Tories expense) and splitting the right-wing vote. There is fuck all chance of UKIP winning the election or even being in some type of coalition so all that this liberal hyperbole about UKIP does is shore up the Tories.

 

[Fez909]

How is it 50/50 if more people are betting Tories will get most seats?

Betting odds don't reflect the likelihood of something happening. Nor does where gamblers put their money.

 

[Kaka Tim]

How is it 50/50 if more people are betting Tories will get most seats?

Latest guardian seat projection has lab and tory getting the same number of seats - but the bookies odds have the tories have favourites for most seats by some distance - I dont think this reflects the real odds - which Id say are about evens. So - worth a flutter if you can still get those odds.

 

[Santino]

I saw the 3 Jizz Drips at Monterey in 1967, seminal performance.

A young Ruddy Yurts on electric bassoon.

 

[Dogsauce]

Latest guardian seat projection has lab and tory getting the same number of seats - but the bookies odds have the tories have favourites for most seats by some distance - I dont think this reflects the real odds - which Id say are about evens. So - worth a flutter if you can still get those odds.

I guess if both parties get the same it'll be snake eyes, and all the cash put on tories or labour having the highest number goes in the bookie's pocket.

 

[Flanflinger]

Just voted Labour in General and local. Free sweets were on offer.

 

[belboid]

Just voted Labour in General and local. Free sweets were on offer.

that's bribery and corruption. I'm going to demand the whole election be annulled

 

[mk12]

Just put a £10 on Labour to get most seats at 7/2. Great odds surely for something which is more like 50/50?

I'm tempted to bet on UKIP getting over 150 second places. Is it worth it?

 

[mk12]

that's bribery and corruption. I'm going to demand the whole election be annulled

Wait to see what the result is first....