Poland

[The39thStep]

Really interesting/depressing situation in Poland with lessons for everywhere else....

There are elections in Poland in October... PiS (national conservative catholic headbangers) vs Civil Platform (abbreviated to PO) - basically a Lib Dem style party enjoying the backing of smaller parties in an electoral pact to get PiS out. Its led by Donal Tusk. PiS is still a little bit ahead in the polls but PO aren't that far behind.

PiS have come up with a clever idea. At the election there will also be referendum questions. How binding the answer to any of these questions is I have no idea, I cant find any comment on that...I would guess basically no. More "indicative" I would presume.

Seems to me above all PiS are cleverly using the referendum questions purely as political messaging. PiS leader Kaczynski is basically setting the election up as PiS vs an EU conspiracy with PO support....PiS say "The Germans (considered defacto leaders of the EU) want to embed Tusk in Poland to sell off common property, his background shows it directly," Parallels with Brexit election are very strong.

Three referendum questions are
1. "Do you support the privatisation of state companies" ( i cant find precise wording). as above quote suggests the questions is designed to flag up that fear that neolibs will sell off state assets at the EUs/Germanys bidding. Degree of truth mixed with conspiracy....supposedly PiS sold some state assets off themselves so its clever stuff.

2. "Are you in favour of raising the retirement age which today is 60 for women and 65 for men?".
Context here is


3. And a good dose of racism and xenophobia to finish with
“Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under the forced relocation mechanism imposed by European bureaucracy?”
Poland has taken in about a million Ukrainian refugees - this is basically considered fine because Ukrainians are "white".
Now the EU is once again trying to make an EU wide policy to spread out the number of refugees coming from the south across member states. Didnt work last time so cant see how it will this time. Nonetheless the PiS response is full on racist:



PiS seem sure to win to me, and its easy to see why. Two flavours of right wing shite is increasingly the norm in Europe. Amazingly at some level the offer from PiS is basically a step up from what Labour are offering.

'The Poles have a great army though, massive'

Morawiecki's video now being retweeted by the likes of former Britain First leader Jayda Fransen

 

[RD2003]

In 1989 Poland, possibly above all other eastern European countries given the events since 1980, represented all the hopes of the neoliberal right and the soft -left, at the time increasingly merging around their embrace of free-market economics and the neo-con approach to international affairs. Now it represents the dashing of all those dreams-which, due to being mere dreams, or more accurately pipe-dreams, didn't last five minutes.

Once it was the Communist regime that intimidated opponents, now it's right-wing populists and their goons. All predictable, but... the irony...

'Violence has also overshadowed the campaign. Not since 1989 has there been a more brutal pre-election period. More than 64% of people surveyed describe this campaign as more violent than previous ones, and 58% believe that the ruling party is responsible for this deterioration. Opposition MPs have been arrested and attacked physically or verbally in public. Ordinary citizens have been beaten in the streets for wearing opposition symbols. Brutal trolling campaigns have been waged on the internet, often participated in by politicians, including ministers.

Obviously, confrontation and denunciation are part of political rough and tumble in other European countries. The difference here is that, one by one, red lines are being crossed in this campaign and dehumanising the opposing side is taken as a given. Crucially, the populists no longer condemn the violence inflicted on their political opponents. The peaceful march in the centre of Warsaw was therefore an exception to this “new normal”. '

Poland was Ukraine’s staunchest ally. Why is it now turning into a bitter rival? | Karolina Wigura and Jarosław Kuisz

War fatigue has set in – and nationalist populists are stoking cross-border enmity in a brutal campaign for re-election, say authors Karolina Wigura and Jarosław Kuisz

www.theguardian.com

 

[ska invita]

In 1989 Poland, possibly above all other eastern European countries given the events since 1980, represented all the hopes of the neoliberal right and the soft -left, at the time increasingly merging around their embrace of free-market economics and the neo-con approach to international affairs. Now it represents the dashing of all those dreams-which, due to being mere dreams, or more accurately pipe-dreams, didn't last five minutes.

Im not totally disagreeing with you but it is slightly more complicated than that as the economic growth within Poland is astonishing, the reported possibility that Polish wages might overtake the UK in the next five years is incredible, and its position of being a net beneficiary of EU redistributed funds and making gain from freedom of movement suggests within the logic of the dominant European system that it is a success on those grounds. Its fitted into NATO perfectly for them too.

Yes Poland is faced with a binary option of reactionary populism or centre right managerialism, but thats far from unique in Europe...especially commonplace when viewed from here in Britain

 

[RD2003]

Im not totally disagreeing with you but it is slightly more complicated than that as the economic growth within Poland is astonishing, the reported possibility that Polish wages might overtake the UK in the next five years is incredible, and its position of being a net beneficiary of EU redistributed funds and making gain from freedom of movement suggests within the logic of the dominant European system that it is a success on those grounds. Its fitted into NATO perfectly for them too.

Yes Poland is faced with a binary option of reactionary populism or centre right managerialism, but thats far from unique in Europe...especially commonplace when viewed from here in Britain

Maybe Poland can be added to the list of economic success stories that just so happen to be politically and socially authoritarian, like the various countries in Asia much trumpeted in the west in the 1980s and '90s. At least until such economic success slows drastically or becomes impossible under, among other factors, the pressures of the climate crisis, and then all bets are off.

In the meantime, if the centre-right wins through in Poland we will see how far they are prepared to dismantle the structures of the authoritarian state...

 

[ska invita]

Maybe Poland can be added to the list of economic success stories that just so happen to be politically and socially authoritarian, like the various countries in Asia much trumpeted in the west in the 1980s and '90s. At least until such economic success slows drastically or becomes impossible under, among other factors, the pressures of the climate crisis, and then all bets are off.

In the meantime, if the centre-right wins through in Poland we will see how far they are prepared to dismantle the structures of the authoritarian state...

That's an interesting perspective... PiS also have their helicopter money grant per child thing, a sort of limited child based basic income in a way... Id imagine this has also helped the economy.

I've been shocked to hear polish people talking negatively about this money though, with a sort of benefit scroungers narrative, it leads people to quitting work and drinking the money away sort of thing.... Sounds like bullshit as it's not actually that much money and I wonder where this narrative is coming from, as in is it from neolib political objectors.

 

[JimW]

Law and Justice Party looks like will remain largest but short of numbers to form a government, further right allies lost badly, opposition hailing it as end of era: Polish opposition leader Tusk declares win after exit poll shows ruling conservatives lose majority

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Absolutely massive turnout. 73% - HUGE. - bigger even than 1989 and a this time with huge youth turnout.

Notes from Poland have done some nice graphics.

 

[The39thStep]

No of Twitter accounts saying that the actual counting indicates that this may be closer than originally portrayed in the exit polls, however, this may be because cities are counted later.

 

[Sue]

My Polish colleague is super happy. He's living outside Poland at the moment and said there were huge queues when he went to vote. (He says most of the Polish people he meets where he is are 20s/30s.)

 

[The39thStep]

My Polish colleague is super happy. He's living outside Poland at the moment and said there were huge queues when he went to vote. (He says most of the Polish people he meets where he is are 20s/30s.)

Not sure but I think their overseas vote goes to the Warsaw constituency in parliamentary elections.?

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

No of Twitter accounts saying that the actual counting indicates that this may be closer than originally portrayed in the exit polls, however, this may be because cities are counted later.

Yes, and there was massive turnout in the cities , plus Urban areas do not vote PiS usually.

 

[ska invita]

Yes, and there was massive turnout in the cities , plus Urban areas do not vote PiS usually.

Any opinion on Lewica ( the left party) ... Second place with under thirties

 

[Rimbaud]

Any opinion on Lewica ( the left party) ... Second place with under thirties

Interesting that PiS are in 5th place with the under 30s.

 

[The39thStep]

Any opinion on Lewica ( the left party) ... Second place with under thirties

Wasn't their vote down from the last election? I saw a comment that Tusk's turn to pro choice might have taken some of their votes.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

More good news:

 

[Magnus McGinty]

I like that there's a party called KO. Probably means something else. But are we applauding fascists coming in or them fucking off?

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

I like that there's a party called KO. Probably means something else. But are we applauding fascists coming in or them fucking off?

I mean I'm happy we're gonna fuck em off, but it's not going to be easy.

KO means koalicja obywatelska or "civic coallition"

KO, Third Way, and Lewica (the left) are actually all coalitions and all together they consist of 12 parties in total.

Platforma Obywatelska
Nowoczesna
Inicjatywa Polska
Zieloni
Agrounia
PSL
Hołownia 2050
Nowa Lewica
Razem
PPS
Unia Pracy
Socjaldemokracja Polska

And they are all different- some more centre right, some more centre left, some more liberal , often with opposing programs. It is going to be incredibly difficult to form a governement that doesn't fall apart.. The way it works now is that the winners (PiS) have to try and form government. They have 2 weeks. That then gets voted on and if they do not pass the vote threshold (they won't) it will be up to the coalition to try to form a government. If that doesn't work the winners get a 2nd go, and if that 2nd go fails it's back to the polls in the spring - which is a worrying prospect, as smaller extreme right wing parties (Like Konfederacja) will have been galvanized and a lower turnout supports them.

There are other issues too, the president is still PiS and due to them being in power so long he's given himself the right to veto any law that gets passed. PLUS all the judiciary, public instiitutions (TV, Oil, Media) has been nepotised and corrupted. And what's more he's in Power for another 2 years before presidential elections. - Potentially a whole two years of PiS vetoing everything.

It's going to be an uphill struggle.

 

[ska invita]

Very interesting polish map thread... Voting patterns falling on borders that existed 100 years ago!

Thread by @sheemawn on Thread Reader App

@sheemawn: It's 2023, 109 years after WW1 started, yet the pre-WW1 imperial borders are still visible on the election map of Poland - and on many others, for that matter. A thread 🧵🧵🧵--> 1. You can see...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[The39thStep]

After the economy, women's rights and abortion were the second most important issues

 

[hitmouse]

Any opinion on Lewica ( the left party) ... Second place with under thirties

Interesting that the results for 18-29 and 30-39 look so dramatically different, PiS and the left pretty much swap places between the milennials and zoomers.

 

[hitmouse]

Also, does anyone have an informed opinion on just how bad Confederation/New Hope are? Have heard about them trying to organise in Polish communities here, they seem presumably less bad than the NOP, but anyone who's notably to the right of PIS must be pretty bad.

 

[ska invita]

Interesting that the results for 18-29 and 30-39 look so dramatically different, PiS and the left pretty much swap places between the milennials and zoomers.

I wonder if one aspect of that is that PiS give money to parents and that's prime parent age?
Pure speculation, I've no idea on cultural shifts between age groups in Poland

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

After the economy, women's rights and abortion were the second most important issues

Exactly. It should send a very strong message to mem at the helm of any political movement to ignore women at your own peril. Women come out to vote as soon as something is offered.

One of the reasons for pi's coming last in the under 30s is that they have grown up in a political climate of mass protests led by women, who's theme was "Jebać PiS" or fuck PiS. On Facebook you see it as a black background with white stars ***** *** - because they tried to ban the slogan.

Many meme's have arisen, this being my favourite, which was played through loudspeakers at all the women's matches.



Public transport was (and still is) a favourite venue for it..

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Also, does anyone have an informed opinion on just how bad Confederation/New Hope are? Have heard about them trying to organise in Polish communities here, they seem presumably less bad than the NOP, but anyone who's notably to the right of PIS must be pretty bad.

They are really really bad. What's interesting to me is that women under 30 vote lewica ant the same rate men under 30 vote far right.

There is going to be another drop in Polish birth rates ..... Newspapers have written about how diametrically opposed polish male and female youth are to each other politically, and how it's going to affect the future of polish society.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

You can read an overview of Konfederacji program here (it's in polish, but the Google translate extension is very good):

Wybory 2023. Program wyborczy Konfederacji [LISTA]

Konfederacja zaprezentowaÅa swój program wyborczy podczas konwencji pod hasÅem "Tak chcemy żyÄ", która odbyÅa siÄ 24 czerwca 2023 roku w Warszawie. Programowi pod nazwÄ "Konstytucja WolnoÅci" towarzyszyhasÅo wyborcze "Możemy wszystko". Z jakim dokÅadnie programem wyborczym startuje...

wiadomosci.dziennik.pl

They are basically mad libertarians, apart from when it comes to women and the church.

 

[ska invita]

There is going to be another drop in Polish birth rates ..... Newspapers have written about how diametrically opposed polish male and female youth are to each other politically, and how it's going to affect the future of polish society.

This sounds familiar and maybe is a larger scale version of teenage political attitudes in the US and beyond where many boys are falling into manosphere toxic hellholes while girls are engaging with feminist ideas

 

[ska invita]

seeing lots of ecstatic articles like this

What Poland’s Surprise Election Winner Means for the World

Donald Tusk says he saved democracy. His larger legacy could be to strengthen European security.

www.politico.com

Guardian jubilant
...but the coalition lost! I dont quite get the excitement. Yes fuck PiS but its hardly a rout. PiS won the vote

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

seeing lots of ecstatic articles like this

What Poland’s Surprise Election Winner Means for the World

Donald Tusk says he saved democracy. His larger legacy could be to strengthen European security.

www.politico.com

Guardian jubilant
...but the coalition lost! I dont quite get the excitement. Yes fuck PiS but its hardly a rout. PiS won the vote

It's proportional representation so there are different types of winning. It's not winning under PR if you can't form a government and your party is roundly rejected by the electorate. People will spin it however they like. Considering the capture of nearly all Polish institutions it's quite staggering. PiS have done everything to be Forever King - they played exactly by the Orban book. Except in Hungary the turnout has become ever lower. In this case people actually bothered coming out to stick the boot in.

 

[ska invita]

It's proportional representation so there are different types of winning. It's not winning under PR if you can't form a government and your party is roundly rejected by the electorate. People will spin it however they like. Considering the capture of nearly all Polish institutions it's quite staggering. PiS have done everything to be Forever King - they played exactly by the Orban book. Except in Hungary the turnout has become ever lower. In this case people actually bothered coming out to stick the boot in.

yes i agree, but your short post above about uphill struggle beats any coverage i have read in the western press
managerial centrists feel like theyve won the world cup - Tusk as some kind of genius - hardly - reality check still as needed as ever