Omicron news

[bluescreen]

This has got me scared in a way I haven't been before, as we have a government and press and large part of the population who think: Oh this variant is milder and will take over, we can all relax now, it's just like the common cold. And they're all saying this at a time when A&E depts are already being overrun and scheduled operations being cancelled on a grand scale.

 

[weepiper]

Mood music from the Scottish Government is fairly grim.

Sturgeon warns of 'rapid' rise in Omicron cases

Scotland's Covid restrictions to be reviewed daily as first minister warns that Omicron is a "significant challenge".

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid in Scotland: Take a test every time you leave home, says Swinney

Evidence of a negative test for Covid-19 can now be used as an alternative to a vaccine passport.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Also see the stuff Sturgeon has said that I just psoted on the main UK thread. I am recommending people change their behaviours now, and prepare for disruption.

#43,561

Ah thanks for that weepiper, your post appreared while I was typing this message.

 

[8ball]

This is what frustrates me so much
We can see what might be coming
Nobody gives a fuck

It's a very "February 2020" feeling.

 

[Brainaddict]

I don't for a moment think the govt has the stomach for a full lockdown, but there's a lot they could do to slow the spread short of a lockdown - ban large gatherings, enforce mask wearing everywhere indoors, close cinemas and gig venues. But as usual they just don't care enough.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't for a moment think the govt has the stomach for a full lockdown, but there's a lot they could do to slow the spread short of a lockdown - ban large gatherings, enforce mask wearing everywhere indoors, close cinemas and gig venues. But as usual they just don't care enough.

no, they care loads: but they care more - much more - about the economy than they do about people's health

 

[elbows]

Back to the situation in the UK now. A leading scientist says it is "extremely likely" the UK will get a "very large wave of infections" as a result of the Omicron variant.

Prof Andrew Haryward, a member of the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, tells BBC Radio 4's World at One programme that evidence from South Africa and the UK suggests cases of Omicron are doubling every two or three days.

By contrast, when cases of Delta have increased recently, the doubling time was two or three weeks, he says. This means Omicron can "very rapidly" replace and overtake Delta, which is currently dominant in the UK, he adds.

The speed of its spread may mean cases peak before there is the opportunity to increase immunity through booster jabs - and immunity may also be weaker against the new variant so the only remaining option is more social distancing measures, the professor of infectious diseases says.

He adds that it's too early to say Omicron is milder than previous variants and its effect on the elderly population remains to be seen.

"Say for example it was half as severe as the previous strains, if you have three times as many cases, that’s still more hospitalisations than we would otherwise have had," he explains.

“With it increasing so fast you can get a very, very, very high peak and that's what threatens the NHS capacity.”

Thats from the 14:33 entry on the BBC live updates page. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/59559623

 

[manji]

I know friends that were terrified a year ago and when lockdown was relaxed continued to avoid gigs, football etc. this time round are completely blasé. I really don’t understand it

 

[elbows]

no, they care loads: but they care more - much more - about the economy than they do about people's health

They care about the economy in a superficial and counterproductive way too, since late action means longer periods of restrictions. And when health care capacity is exceeded this does rather tend to suppress economic activity for a whole bunch of reasons.

 

[Pickman's model]

They care about the economy in a superficial and counterproductive way too, since late action means longer periods of restrictions. And when health care capacity is exceeded this does rather tend to suppress economic activity for a whole bunch of reasons.

i never said they were competent. just that they care much more about the economy than about people's health

 

[elbows]

I know friends that were terrified a year ago and when lockdown was relaxed continued to avoid gigs, football etc. this time round are completely blasé. I really don’t understand it

The initial shock wore off, the media have been talking shit for a long time, people were encouraged to have oversimplistic expectations about vaccines and the wrong ideas about 'how long a pandemic lasts'.

 

[StoneRoad]

I am absolutely dreading the next few weeks. DePiffle's doing only a little to actually mitigate the potential risks.

Personally, I'm boosted, as are my close family, live in an area with very high vaccination rates, and currently - at least - a low case rate. And I can WFH, get deliveries [weather permitting !]

But I regularly see people ignoring the basic safety precautions ... as in they think it is all over.
It is most definitely not all over.

 

[Boru]

And more developments just published on the guardian.. an undetectable stealth version..

Scientists find ‘stealth’ version of Omicron that may be harder to track

Variant lacks feature that allows probable cases to be distinguished among positive PCR tests

www.theguardian.com

 

[Brainaddict]

I know friends that were terrified a year ago and when lockdown was relaxed continued to avoid gigs, football etc. this time round are completely blasé. I really don’t understand it

To be fair, they have been vaccinated since then. Even if you know that vaccines don't solve all problems, there's still a line of argument that says this virus will be circulating forever now, and there's got to be a point at which we start living our normal lives again, even if there is some risk. (This is a plausible line of argument for ordinary people btw but not for the govt, who know that health services are in danger of being overwhelmed).

 

[elbows]

And more developments just published on the guardian.. an undetectable stealth version..

Scientists find ‘stealth’ version of Omicron that may be harder to track

Variant lacks feature that allows probable cases to be distinguished among positive PCR tests

www.theguardian.com

Thats the second time in recent days the Guardian have made a big deal about holes in our ability to estimate Omicron case numbers via S-gene dropout. Previously they were focussing on the fact that only a percentage of our PCR labs have the ability to detect s gene dropout, with coverage especially poor for the South West.

It would be better if we could see something closer to the complete picture without these issues, but I think there is still likely to be enough data that we get a good enough idea about this variants potential and spread. And its looking likely to spread so quickly that I dont feel like I desperately need that complete picture, so I'm not especially alarmed by these Guardian stories. The properties of the variant itself are of huge concern to me, not these angles by the Guardian.

I suppose there is a small risk that some people could misinterpret the Guardians headline - PCR tests still detect positive cases that are infected with that version of Omicron, they just cant be used to tell its Omicron in particular as opposed to another variant, if the Omicron in question is the version that doesnt have the s-gene dropout.

 

[2hats]

More tellingly (Denmark sequences a much higher proportion of cases than any other country, ie ~57% to Sweden's ~38% and the UK's ~16% **, so is far less confounded by SGTP or SGTF assumptions):


(** Of course, as omicron exponentiates all these proportions will significantly drop without additional capacity).

 

[Boru]

Thats the second time in recent days the Guardian have made a big deal about holes in our ability to estimate Omicron case numbers via S-gene dropout.

I did think there was a level of sensationalism to the story but it is still a surprise development to me. I feel we are progressively moving towards a new world of 'living with covid', and whatever ramifications that may have for the world.

 

[Supine]

And more developments just published on the guardian.. an undetectable stealth version..

Scientists find ‘stealth’ version of Omicron that may be harder to track

Variant lacks feature that allows probable cases to be distinguished among positive PCR tests

www.theguardian.com

Guardian playing catch-up. I mentioned that on urban over a week ago!

 

[8ball]

They care about the economy in a superficial and counterproductive way too, since late action means longer periods of restrictions. And when health care capacity is exceeded this does rather tend to suppress economic activity for a whole bunch of reasons.

Yeah. I'm thinking my economic activity might soon be heavily curtailed by this.

 

[planetgeli]

I suppose there is a small risk that some people could misinterpret the Guardians headline - PCR tests still detect positive cases that are infected with that version of Omicron, they just cant be used to tell its Omicron in particular as opposed to another variant, if the Omicron in question is the version that doesnt have the s-gene dropout.

I wouldn't say small risk. That's exactly (wrongly) how I interpreted that headline until I read your well explained post. It's a very badly written headline.

 

[2hats]

And more developments just published on the guardian.. an undetectable stealth version..

Scientists find ‘stealth’ version of Omicron that may be harder to track

Variant lacks feature that allows probable cases to be distinguished among positive PCR tests

www.theguardian.com

Sequences with 69-70del missing were seen in the earliest samples (very small numbers). It's just that late last night the original omicron lineage was sub-divided into two recognised sub-lineages. There are further sub-variants (with a few point mutations differing). If any of those prove to be biologically significant (right now one might be), or have phylogenetic utility, then there will probably be some further re-classification shortly. But they are all omicron (just like all AY.* are essentially delta). The only difference here is whether you can infer proportions from PCR SGTF, which is still a useful indication of trend, where omicron SGTP numbers are small-to-negligible (eg the UK, at the time of writing).

 

[Supine]

Guardian getting corrected by experts

 

[elbows]

I wouldn't say small risk. That's exactly (wrongly) how I interpreted that headline until I read your well explained post. It's a very badly written headline.

Yeah I was being too charitable to the Guardian with my use of the word small.

 

[elbows]

 

[2hats]

Preliminary omicron vaccine neutralisation results (Sigal et al). Here performed with Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine induced sera. The apparent raw neutralisation reduction is around 40-fold compared to original D614G. Other observations - omicron is still using the ACE2 receptor. Omicron does not escape from hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination).

 

[elbows]

Yeah I just came to post a tweet or two about that:

 

[elbows]

 

[2hats]

Note that the Sigal lab studies were performed in a BSL-3 with live virus. Also bear in mind that antigenic imprinting can modulate subsequent immunoresponses.

 

[teuchter]

I've made the mistake of reading an Omicron thread on another forum, where people are saying it doesn't matter if millions of people become infected and lots of people are hospitalised - there will be a week or two which will be horrendous but after that it'll be fine, everyone will be immune and the pandemic will be over.

 

[LDC]

I've made the mistake of reading an Omicron thread on another forum, where people are saying it doesn't matter if millions of people become infected and lots of people are hospitalised - there will be a week or two which will be horrendous but after that it'll be fine, everyone will be immune and the pandemic will be over.

Shit. That's were we all went wrong right at the beginning then... just do nothing, have a bad fortnight, but then it's all OK! Have you pointed out to these people they need to urgently get in touch with the WHO etc. to let them know they have the answer we're all been searching for?