Omicron news

[elbows]

I tend to associate those sort of doubling time with even the most stupid regimes being forced to act in a pandemic.

 

[Supine]

Strewth

 

[kabbes]

What the...

 

[StoneRoad]

What the...

Nothing good !

 

[elbows]

Bits I've cherrypicked from the South African presidents statement today:

Over the last week, the number of daily infections has increased five-fold. Nearly a quarter of all COVID-19 tests now come back positive. Compare this to two weeks ago, when the proportion of positive tests was sitting at around 2%.

The massive surge in infections means that, in addition to vaccination, we need to be far more diligent in reducing our contact with people outside our household. Social distancing is difficult as the festive season approaches, but the evidence shows that gatherings – mainly those held indoors – carry the greatest risk of transmission. Many people have been disappointed by the cancellation of some big events in recent days, but it is by far the safest and most responsible thing to do now.

Fortunately, we all know what we need to do, such as wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding crowds. Now we just need to make sure that we do these things more consistently and without exception.

As we work with greater urgency to increase vaccination rates, we need to significantly up our game on prevention measures to ensure our collective safety.

We should not wait for new regulations before we reduce the size of the gatherings, as research has shown this to be an effective means of reducing the spread of the virus.

All public and private facilities, including workplaces, taxis, buses and trains, must ensure adequate ventilation to prevent the spread of the virus.

Every facility that serves the public has a legal responsibility to ensure that people practice social distancing. We must reinvigorate our masking programme, where we insist on no entry into any public or business facility without a mask.

From the desk of the President, Monday, 6 December 2021 | The Presidency

www.thepresidency.gov.za

 

[_Russ_]

Over the last week, the number of daily infections has increased five-fold. Nearly a quarter of all COVID-19 tests now come back positive. Compare this to two weeks ago, when the proportion of positive tests was sitting at around 2%.

Just as (another) Illustration of how shit we've behaved in this Pandemic, there were 2 weeks in the second half of october where the positivity rate in Wales was at the levels reported in the massive surge going on now In South Africa (24%)...difference being we did fuck all to bring it down, no increased measures, everything stayed open and the people of Wales wandered around like it was all over

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

Already mentioned shorter incubation window possibilities but just to touch on that again.

 

[weltweit]

Why do I feel a little like the rabbit in the headlights where Omicron is concerned?

 

[Indeliblelink]

 

[Steel Icarus]

This is what frustrates me so much
We can see what might be coming
Nobody gives a fuck

 

[weltweit]

This is what frustrates me so much
We can see what might be coming
Nobody gives a fuck

Do you think Government should do a lockdown?

 

[Steel Icarus]

Do you think Government should do a lockdown?

Yeah

 

[Ming]

Yeah

Agree. But the horse may have bolted. We'll know better in a few weeks when the data's in and they've run the numbers obviously. I think humanity has really fucked this one up. Leaving largely unvaccinated populations in poor countries to give the virus plenty of opportunity to mutate.

 

[cupid_stunt]

So, we can expect Omicron to become the dominant variant within a few weeks, although on the plus side, with the usual caveats, there seems an increasing number of experts expressing the view that it looks fairly mild, with symptoms more like other coronaviruses that get lumped into just the 'common cold', at least in those that have had it before or been vaccinated, which gives us some hope.

With the caveat that until scientists get more data, there is a lot of speculation around, but Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 genomics initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, has agreed this morning with those suggesting that Omicron would take over from Delta in the UK as the dominant variant of coronavirus “within a matter of weeks”.

PA Media quotes him telling the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: “I think we can now say that this variant is spreading faster in the UK than the Delta variant at the same time, and that’s something that I think was unclear until very recently. I am pretty confident that it’s going to take over probably in a matter of weeks.”

Asked about the implications of that, he said: “Well, we don’t know and that’s the really critical question, of course, is how many of those cases of which there will likely be a large number will lead to severe disease?

“And a number of people including Dr Fauci have hypothesised that this variant may be more mild or less likely to cause severe disease than previous variants of the virus.

“I think what we have seen so far in South Africa, for example, is possibly consistent with that, but it’s really much too soon to say, and the reason for that is that this variant seems to be able to infect individuals who either have been vaccinated or previously have been infected.

“And we know that second infections or breakthrough infections of vaccinated individuals tend to be more mild. So the fact that so far we have seen not very many severe cases of Omicron, maybe because it is infecting these individuals with some amount of immunity and that’s good news that they aren’t having tonnes of severe disease, but I think it is too soon to assume that fundamentally Omicron is more mild than say Delta.”

Fury in UK after video about No 10 party; early signs Omicron more transmissible – as it happened

Early indications Omicron more transmissible than Delta, says Boris Johnson; Nicola Sturgeon says staff should work from home until mid-January

www.theguardian.com

 

[ska invita]

So, we can expect Omicron to become the dominant variant within a few weeks, although on the plus side, with the usual caveats, there seems an increasing number of experts expressing the view that it looks fairly mild, with symptoms more like other coronaviruses that get lumped into just the 'common cold', at least in those that have had it before or been vaccinated, which gives us some hope.

if that is true and it becomes truly dominant and really is mild might this be a way out of this covid hellhole no? in fact it would be good if it spreads and dominates? or does its spread create more chances of nastier variants?

 

[gentlegreen]

if that is true and it becomes truly dominant and really is mild might this be a way out of this covid hellhole no? in fact it would be good if it spreads and dominates?

Assuming it gives good cross-immunisation against more unpleasant strains...
That said, I ain't taking my mask off any time soon ...

 

[cupid_stunt]

if that is true and it becomes truly dominant and really is mild might this be a way out of this covid hellhole no? in fact it would be good if it spreads and dominates? or does its spread create more chances of nastier variants?

It could do, but...

 

[cupid_stunt]

Another update, again suggesting it is mild.

Prof Tim Spector, from the Covid Zoe app, said that in about 10 days’ time the UK could have more cases of Omicron than some countries it had put on the travel red list.

The professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London told BBC Breakfast: “The official estimates are about 350-odd Omicron cases, and because the current testing is missing a lot of those, it’s probably at least 1,000 to 2,000 I would guess at the moment.

“And we are expecting this to be doubling about every two days at the moment, so if you do your maths – say, assumed it’s 1,000 at the moment, and you think it’s going to be doubling every two days, you can see that those numbers are going to be pretty (high) certainly in about 10 days’ time. By that time, we’ll probably have more cases than they will in some of those African countries.

“So I think these travel restrictions do perhaps have their place initially, when cases are really low here and really high in the other country, but when we reach that equilibrium, there’s very little point in having them in my opinion.”

PA Media quotes him saying that data from the Zoe symptom study app suggests that about half of all cases at the moment of Delta are being “missed” because they are not presenting with “classic” Covid symptoms of fever, new and persistent cough and a loss or change of smell or taste.

“Omicron is probably more, much more similar to the mild variants we’re seeing in people who have been vaccinated with Delta than anything else,” he said.

“And so it is going to be producing cold-like symptoms that people won’t recognise as Covid if they just believe the official government advice.”

Fury in UK after video about No 10 party; early signs Omicron more transmissible – as it happened

Early indications Omicron more transmissible than Delta, says Boris Johnson; Nicola Sturgeon says staff should work from home until mid-January

www.theguardian.com

 

[bluescreen]

But it only needs a small percentage (of the massively more widely infected population) to suffer badly for the Omicron variant to be a big problem.

 

[zahir]

Omicron Post #4

Previous Omicron updates: #1, #2, #3. Last weekly non-Omicron update. An introductory word: Thanks to Dominic Cummings, I have a lot of new readers, many from the United Kingdom, so I want to welco…

thezvi.wordpress.com

1. Omicron spreads far more rapidly than Delta and is going to take over.
2. This will come at us fast. Omicron will be the majority strain by the end of January. This happening by end of year is on the table.
3. Omicron re-infects those who have already been sick, or breaks through to those who have been vaccinated, much more than Delta.
4. Previous infection continues to protect against severe disease, hospitalization and death.
5. Omicron doesn’t cause substantially more severe disease than Delta when it infects you, but we don’t know if it causes less severe disease yet, our evidence is ambiguous.
6. Omicron cases on average are much more mild because there will be a much higher percentage of re-infections and breakthrough cases, which are highly protected against severe disease.
7. The big peak is probably within a few months, so you don’t have time to wait for an Omicron-targeted shot. The current shots will still work against severe disease, so strongly consider getting vaccinated or boosted if you can.
8. The best thing we can do to minimize the harm Omicron causes is to ramp up production of therapeutics, especially Paxlovid, as rapidly as possible, along with the necessary tests and other logistics to get the treatments to people in time to matter. The goal is mitigation at this point, not prevention.
9. There is going to be a period early in 2022 when there are quite a lot of Omicron cases, such that it will be difficult to remain uninfected and it will likely be difficult to get any kind of medical treatment at a hospital. Be ready.
10. Also be ready in case of lockdowns and other government restrictions, especially if you live in Europe where they’ve shown a willingness to use them. And if you’re immunocompromised or otherwise at high enough risk you need to be sure to not get Omicron, then the price of success is getting super paranoid soon and lock down hard, for at least several months.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

if that is true and it becomes truly dominant and really is mild might this be a way out of this covid hellhole no? in fact it would be good if it spreads and dominates? or does its spread create more chances of nastier variants?

I guess if it is mild (big if obviously) in general the question is if that's still true for older or otherwise vulnerable people?

 

[cupid_stunt]

But it only needs a small percentage (of the massively more widely infected population) to suffer badly for the Omicron variant to be a big problem.

Indeed, although if the vaccine boosters hold up to it, hopefully not.

 

[elbows]

Vaccines arent enough to stop the 'small percentage of a large number' thing from still having big implications, which is one of the reasons I keep saying we shouldnt rely on vaccines to carry all the weight of the pandemic. SAGE are meeting very infrequenctly these days, but we know from previous planning and modelling of variants that increased transmissibility is expected to have big implications for hospital pressure, and that increased transmission bothers many experts more than various changes to pure 'deadliness'.

The 'mild' stuff still requires quite a bit more time to unpick, especially in a vaccine era. I dont mind people using this as a source of hope, as long as it isnt used as an excuse to err on the side of recklessness and to delay doing the things that should be done.

I am nowhere close to being able to tell whether Omicron is pure bad news or a mix of bad news and good news.

In terms of the UK picture, we were only just getting to the point where stronger clues would emerge as to whether we were going to get through this winter without Delta causing enough problems that further measures would be required. And now it is not clear to me that we will get to see that picture emerge cleanly, due to the timing of the rise of Omicron.

 

[elbows]

And then after writing that I groaned when I saw this:

We have some more from the prime minister's official spokesman.

He says there is "no hard agreement on the level of transmissibility" and the impact of Omicron will "depend on the severity".

I am not alone:

 

[elbows]

 

[StoneRoad]

DePiffle dragging his heels, and expecting the vaccines to do all the work, especially as Omicron is already here & there is community transmission with the added benefit of it being winter here ...
is totally #world-beating

[I predict that the 3.6 Rt that SA is probably experiencing, is going to convert to at least 5 Rt with our being in winter]

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

There were too many tweets in this thread for me to be posting them all, so I'm just posting the end of this particular thread that was in response to Christina Pagels 'toy' modelling exercise.

 

[elbows]