Omicron news

[Aladdin]

it actually freaks me out that we (not me obvs) are capable of measuring something so tiny with anything approaching accuracy

Makes me have even more faith in science.

 

[2hats]

Presumably they can’t rule out surface borne transmission from the food and utensils which were being delivered to their doors? Even if the people handling those items in the quarantine centre are being tested, there must be a supply chain which physically handles food before it arrives there?

The clear (genomic) implication is that one traveller was infected by the other.

 

[kenny g]

Yeah, I understand their view, which is that something is going to kill them before too long, so they may as well keep doing the things they enjoy while they still can. Like you say, it’s complicated. I just don’t think they take decisions based on good info.

My dad will say things like “it said in the paper there’s only two cases of this new variant in the U.K., and neither is anywhere near us”, as though the reporting in the Daily Mail is a live readout of the current location of every copy of the virus on that particular day.

They also seem to think that wearing masks in shops gives them total protection.

Maybe because that is easier than saying "I am likely to have at most ten years of good life ahead of me so I may as well not spend three of it cooped up in a shell".

 

[kenny g]

I have my faith in the O being amazingly transmissible and relatively safe. Call me an optimist.

 

[elbows]

Just over 100 of the 120 people who participated were infected with corona during the evening.

So far, 13 cases have been confirmed to become ill by the new variant omikron.

A staff party for the Norwegian energy company Scatec has come into the spotlight as Europe's first super-spreader event for the new corona variant omikron.

On Friday, just over a week ago, Scatec invited 120 of its employees to a Christmas dinner at Louise Restaurang och Bar in Oslo. According to the company, infection control measures had been taken and all present were vaccinated and tested for covid-19.

Despite this, almost 100 people were infected that evening. Exactly how many of the infected belong to Scatec's staff is not known. The evening ended in a public area with other restaurant guests.

The person who is believed to have caused the spread of infection is an employee at Scatec who returned from South Africa a few days earlier.

Scatec spokesman Stian Tvede Karlsen tells the New York Times that the person, who was the first to test positive for covid-19, came home to Norway from a business trip before the new variant from South Africa was on everyone's lips.

- This wave seems to go much faster than the delta wave, and we thought that the delta wave was very fast. It's incredible, says Juliet Pulliam, head of epidemiological modeling and analysis at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, to the American media company NPR.

An analysis that she and her colleagues have done shows that the omicron variant is extremely contagious and seems to have a greater ability to get past the immune system than the delta variant has.

- There is a great deal of uncertainty in the analysis, but I would say that it is probable, Pulliam explains to NPR.

Machine translated from Så blev julbordet ett superspridarevent

 

[elbows]

 

[mx wcfc]

Why wait till sodding Tuesday - it's just like delta - stand back, hold the door wide open, whilst acting tough.

The fuckers learn nothing.

 

[MrCurry]

The clear (genomic) implication is that one traveller was infected by the other.

So that result wouldn’t be seen if they had both been infected by a single third party?

 

[Steel Icarus]

Why wait till sodding Tuesday - it's just like delta - stand back, hold the door wide open, whilst acting tough.

The fuckers learn nothing.

Mrs SI thinks they can't as it has to go through parliament. I don't think it does. Who's right?

 

[weltweit]

Well I imagine the airlines need a bit of warning, and the people who will be arranging quarantine etc ..

 

[mx wcfc]

They don't have to do those things if they don't want to. They will make excuses,

 

[elbows]

Mrs SI thinks they can't as it has to go through parliament. I don't think it does. Who's right?

I'm not too knowledeable about such matters but I think the travel-related stuff doesnt require a vote. I say that because I dont recall votes whenever they've changed the red list and other travel rules in the past. And they had votes on November 30th when they wanted to change domestic stuff in response to Omicron - they had a vote for changing the self-isolation rules to incorporate Omicron stuff, and a vote for the new mask rules.

 

[LDC]

Mrs SI thinks they can't as it has to go through parliament. I don't think it does. Who's right?

I'm pretty sure you are.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel) (England) Regulations 2020 (revoked)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

www.legislation.gov.uk

 

[MrSki]

The vote for the new mask rules was after the rules came into affect. 4am in the morning & vote was not till later that afternoon.

 

[elbows]

I'm pretty sure you are.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel) (England) Regulations 2020 (revoked)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

www.legislation.gov.uk

I think that one got revoked and replaced with this one earlier in 2021. I havent tried to wade through it and see if it requires further changes or already has built in mechanisms to change certain details without needing to change the legislation.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel and Operator Liability) (England) Regulations 2021 (revoked)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

www.legislation.gov.uk

 

[2hats]

So that result wouldn’t be seen if they had both been infected by a single third party?

Far less likely. The incubation windows don't allow much wriggle room, even for quarantine hotel staff, who are reported to have repeatedly tested negative anyway (sounds like food was left for the quarantinees; not clear on details of PCR procedure but again could have been self-sampling with no contact, besides which, the report infers it was performed on different days for each).

 

[elbows]

Speaking of incubation windows:

On Saturday, On Saturday Downing Street announced that it was introducing pre-departure tests for people travelling to the UK. From 4am on Tuesday, travellers will have to complete a lateral flow or PCR test 48 hours before entering the country. Nigeria has been added to the red list, and from 4am on Monday arrivals will have to quarantine in hotels. Officials said the moves came as evidence emerged that the Omicron strain had been reported in more than 40 countries, with apparent community transmission in places such as Norway. They also said there was evidence that the incubation period was shorter than for other variants.

UK’s progress on Covid now squandered, warns top scientist

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome Trust, suggests emergence of Omicron variant means pandemic is far from over

www.theguardian.com

 

[kenny g]

Mrs SI thinks they can't as it has to go through parliament. I don't think it does. Who's right?

It doesn't have to go through parliament. Amusingly enough considering your board name. Under the health act the secretary of state can sign off an SI ( statutory instrument) without parliamentary pre approval. Look at the intro to the recent mask SI.

Or this intro where it is laid before parliament but there is no requirement for approval. The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel and Operator Liability) (England) Regulations 2021

 

[LDC]

I think that one got revoked and replaced with this one earlier in 2021. I havent tried to wade through it and see if it requires further changes or already has built in mechanisms to change certain details without needing to change the legislation.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel and Operator Liability) (England) Regulations 2021 (revoked)

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

www.legislation.gov.uk

Ah yeah, even says 'revoked' in the title!

 

[Aladdin]

Our Tanaiste Leo Veradkar has announced that the pandemic is far from over and we can expect variants and restrictions for the next 5 years.
He also said we should do everything we can to curb spread so we can have a really good summer in 2022.

Varadkar says we need to make the most of summer, next winter could be difficult

“I’m determined that should not be the case next summer, that we should open safely if we can and not have the toughest restrictions in Europe in the summer of 2022."

www.google.com

I'm not convinced summer next year will be any better than now.

 

[kabbes]

Can I fact-check something that is slightly confusing me?

On the one hand, we have talk of Omicron "outcompeting" Delta. Whether it will replace or supplant it in the population.
On the other hand, though, we have the evidence that antibodies produced against Delta (be they organic or vaccine-induced) may not be effective against Omicron.

So question 1 -- if Delta antibodies are ineffective against Omicron then presumably that's also true in reverse?
Question 2 -- leading on from that, if their antibodies are mutually ineffective then why would one replace the other? Surely both can circulate in the population unimpeded by the other? You could quite legitimately get Delta and then Omicron or Omicron and then Delta.

 

[Supine]

Q1 - the premise is probably wrong. There is evidence that antibodies may be less effective. Certainly not ineffective.

Q2 - Both can circulate. If omicron can spread more effectively it starts to win the race because more people get it. So the numbers go up quicker than for delta. Also, if there is more reinfection it has a wider range of hosts available which also helps it.

 

[kabbes]

Q2 - Both can circulate. If omicron can spread more effectively it starts to win the race because more people get it. So the numbers go up quicker than for delta. Also, if there is more reinfection it has a wider range of hosts available which also helps it.

Why is it a “race” though, if antibodies don’t provide mutual protection? (Accepting that this is not necessarily actually the case). It’s then no more a race than COVID races against flu.

 

[Supine]

Why is it a “race” though, if antibodies don’t provide mutual protection? (Accepting that this is not necessarily actually the case). It’s then no more a race than COVID races against flu.

Its not a race for covid, it just floats around and replicates. Antibodies will neutralise it, perhaps to differing levels.

 

[LDC]

Can I fact-check something that is slightly confusing me?

On the one hand, we have talk of Omicron "outcompeting" Delta. Whether it will replace or supplant it in the population.
On the other hand, though, we have the evidence that antibodies produced against Delta (be they organic or vaccine-induced) may not be effective against Omicron.

So question 1 -- if Delta antibodies are ineffective against Omicron then presumably that's also true in reverse?
Question 2 -- leading on from that, if their antibodies are mutually ineffective then why would one replace the other? Surely both can circulate in the population unimpeded by the other? You could quite legitimately get Delta and then Omicron or Omicron and then Delta.

I think (iirc from listening to an interview with an immunologist recently) then the bit I highlighted is actually possible - quick re-infection and possibly concurrent infections with both.

The rest just makes my head feel like it's going to explode.

 

[kabbes]

Its not a race for covid, it just floats around and replicates. Antibodies will neutralise it, perhaps to differing levels.

I think you're not grasping what I'm saying. Or possibly vice versa.

If antibodies don't mutually "work" to eliminate both variants then from our point of view, these are essentially two different diseases. Omicron won't replace Delta because somebody who has already had Omicron can still get Delta. This is fundamentally different to Alpha and Delta, whereby somebody who has had Delta now (basically) can't get Alpha. In the latter case, Delta outcompeted Alpha and Alpha disappeared. However, in the former case, there is nothing to stop Omicron and Delta co-existing.

Now, if antibodies do mutually "work" to eliminate both variants then fine, the competition happens and only one variant wins. But this seems to be far from certain right now. The hope is there, but not the sure knowledge.

And sure, you get an interesting non-linear dynamic system akin to a multiple predator-prey model where the antibodies are partially mutually effective. In this case, my expectation is that there is no stationary point to the system, and each will see flare ups over time. But if this happens, we are effectively looking at a long-term two-variant system, not a system in which one variant replaces the other.

 

[xenon]

Why is it a “race” though, if antibodies don’t provide mutual protection? (Accepting that this is not necessarily actually the case). It’s then no more a race than COVID races against flu.

Not sure I understand your question.

AIUI the idea. if a large section of the population has delta antibodies, however gained. There is obviously an increasingly smaller susceptible body of hosts for it to infect.

Omicron turns up and these antibodies can't completely defeat it, so it has a vastly greater susceptible host population. If other features of it, viral load, upper airway reproduction means it can also spread more easily, that would also give it an advantage in overtaking delta.

 

[xenon]

You can presumably simultaniously have antibodies that can fight off delta and omicron. Even if these delta antibodies fade after some time, delta could have already run out of enough hosts to efficiently circulate by then.

 

[kabbes]

Not sure I understand your question.

AIUI the idea. if a large section of the population has delta antibodies, however gained. There is obviously an increasingly smaller susceptible body of hosts for it to infect.

Omicron turns up and these antibodies can't completely defeat it, so it has a vastly greater susceptible host population. If other features of it, viral load, upper airway reproduction means it can also spread more easily, that would also give it an advantage in overtaking delta.

But if antibodies against Omicron aren't (strongly) effective against Delta (and why would they be, if the reverse isn't true?), the fact that somebody has had Omicron doesn't stop them carrying on getting Delta. In that case, Omicron is no more a limiting factor against the spread of Delta than the 'flu is. What you're saying only works in the one-way situation in which Omicron antibodies stop Delta but Delta antibodies don't stop Omicron.

 

[kabbes]

What you're saying only works in the one-way situation in which Omicron antibodies stop Delta but Delta antibodies don't stop Omicron.

This is the crux of it, for me. A lot of what is being written about Omicron replacing Delta implicitly makes the assumption that there is this one-way relationship.