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Omicron news

gentlegreen said:
so ordinarily the PCR spits out "positive or negative" and they don't pay attention to the distribution of markers ?

The cat is definitely out of the bag ... presumably to be confirmed by some sequencing of old samples ?
Click to expand...
They've been doing genomic sequencing on a proportion of samples for a very long time. One of the resons it would have been better to have less cases every day would be that then we could have sequened a far higher proportion of them.

Even if we sequenced every sample there are still some delays in getting that full picture, so the use of checking for things like S gene dropout that a bunch of the standard PCR labs can check for is something we've used before to get a quicker picture of a new variant taking over.
 
www.who.int

Update on Omicron

On 26 November 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 a variant of concern, named Omicron, on the advice of WHO’s Technical Advisory Group on Virus Evolution (TAG-VE). This decision was based on the evidence presented to the TAG-VE that Omicron has several mutations that may have an impact...
www.who.int www.who.int
 
WHO 'dont panic' comments seem useless to me, and have the potential to be counterproductive in two different directions. I'm not impressed by that bit, though warnings to prepare are much more sensible.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: Don't panic about Omicron variant, WHO says

The World Health Organization urges people to be cautious and prepare for the Omicron variant.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
Cloo said:
Well, that all sucks. But what's also going suck now is all the twats going 'Ohhh, so they've conveniently got another dangerous "variant" now and of course they'll be one next year and the year after that. Ohhh, how convenient' :facepalm:
Click to expand...

Yeah at work my boss was making comments along the lines of "Omicron just before Ghislaine Maxwell's trial.. how convenient" Gawd.

It's worrying the number of cases found in the UK. Either cos we are looking harder or we have more community transmission. Sucks though. Can already see my holiday to Portugal in January not happening now...
 
MrCurry said:
Deffo a good idea to have a thread dedicated to this one variant, IMHO.

I’m worried now about my 80+ parents, who after weathering the early part of the pandemic by shielding and allowing others to do shopping for them have, post vaccination, returned to going to the supermarket once a week, plus other shops.

The sooner we have confirmed info on how much Omicron defeats the current vaccine, the better, as even if I start lobbying them to isolate I know they‘re going to resist. Nothing was helped by the Daily Mail (their favourite source of propagandist disinformation) having the headline “Experts say jabs WILL work on variant” on the front page yesterday. Simultaneously technically correct and massively misleading, in the truest DM tradition.
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My parents are 80 and active and when you reach that age the risk benefit analysis from isolating becomes complicated and definitely one for people to do themselves. I fully understand my dad wanting to have a social life and won't stand in his way.
 
kenny g said:
My parents are 80 and active and when you reach that age the risk benefit analysis from isolating becomes complicated and definitely one for people to do themselves. I fully understand my dad wanting to have a social life and won't stand in his way.
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Yeah, I understand their view, which is that something is going to kill them before too long, so they may as well keep doing the things they enjoy while they still can. Like you say, it’s complicated. I just don’t think they take decisions based on good info.

My dad will say things like “it said in the paper there’s only two cases of this new variant in the U.K., and neither is anywhere near us”, as though the reporting in the Daily Mail is a live readout of the current location of every copy of the virus on that particular day.

They also seem to think that wearing masks in shops gives them total protection.
 
kenny g said:
My parents are 80 and active and when you reach that age the risk benefit analysis from isolating becomes complicated and definitely one for people to do themselves. I fully understand my dad wanting to have a social life and won't stand in his way.
Click to expand...
My parents are in their 70s and and I know my dad's view is that he'll take his chances because he's had his life and it's not fair younger people should have their lives on hold to protect him. But of course, not everyone feels the same.
 
Yeah, I'm not looking forward to the next few weeks and months.

I don't think vaccinations alone, or even with masks & social distancing, will keep this variant from pushing a huge wave of infections. However much depiffle wants not to, something more serious in terms of measures are going to be needed.

Also reinforces the point that high case rates encourage mutations when there hasn't been enough vaccinations.
 
weepiper said:
Well, this is pretty alarming.

Click to expand...

If that is true and Omicron also turns out to cause serious illness in the vaccinated then we are truly fucked, the quote of 80-90 people being positive gives me some hope that it has some incorrect info in it. (its either 80 or 90 or the writer doesnt know, so the writer may have other stuff wrong)
 
_Russ_ said:
If that is true and Omicron also turns out to cause serious illness in the vaccinated then we are truly fucked, the quote of 80-90 people being positive gives me some hope that it has some incorrect info in it. (its either 80 or 90 or the writer doesnt know, so the writer may have other stuff wrong)
Click to expand...

BIB, why do you think that? It could be any number between 80 & 90.
 
cupid_stunt said:
BIB, why do you think that? It could be any number between 80 & 90.
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I've tried the find the mention of that number range in the story she links to (reuters)
but can't find it, im not sure where that comes from


Xenon, got a link to when the party happened?
 
Viral genomes deduced from these 2 SARS-CoV-2‒positive cases differed only by 1 nt. Retrospective investigation, including closed-circuit television camera footage, confirmed that neither case-patient left their room during the quarantine period. No items were shared between rooms, and other persons did not enter either room. The only time the 2 quarantined persons opened their respective doors was to collect of food that was placed immediately outside each room door. The only other time they might have opened their doors would be for RT-PCRs, which were conducted in 3-day intervals. However, because these 2 case-patients arrived 1 day apart, it is unlikely that they would be tested on the same day. Airborne transmission across the corridor is the most probable mode of transmission.
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wwwnc.cdc.gov

Probable Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Quarantine Hotel, Hong Kong, China, November 2021

Probable Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Quarantine Hotel, Hong Kong, China
wwwnc.cdc.gov wwwnc.cdc.gov
 
2hats said:
wwwnc.cdc.gov

Probable Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Quarantine Hotel, Hong Kong, China, November 2021

Probable Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Quarantine Hotel, Hong Kong, China
wwwnc.cdc.gov wwwnc.cdc.gov
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Presumably they can’t rule out surface borne transmission from the food and utensils which were being delivered to their doors? Even if the people handling those items in the quarantine centre are being tested, there must be a supply chain which physically handles food before it arrives there?
 
_Russ_ said:
I've tried the find the mention of that number range in the story she links to (reuters)
but can't find it, im not sure where that comes from


Xenon, got a link to when the party happened?
Click to expand...

Nov 26th according to this.
edition.cnn.com

Omicron outbreak at Norway Christmas party is biggest outside South Africa, authorities say | CNN

At least 13 people in Oslo have been infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus following a corporate Christmas party described as a "superspreader event," and their numbers could rise to over 60 cases, authorities said on Friday.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com

Granted if people are going to be hospitalised with covid19, it can happen a week or 2 after initial infection IIRC. And by definition it's likely most attending were of working age.

But it could also just be that omicron is more transmissible but no more deadly. A problem in itself I know, as a small percentage of a huge number of cases could still cause too much pressure on health services.

tl/dr no point fretting about it being more dangerous than delta til more is known.
 
Fresh from the 'mutations' thread, for those who don't subscribe.
www.reuters.com

Omicron variant may have picked up a piece of common-cold virus

The Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 likely acquired at least one of its mutations by picking up a snippet of genetic material from another virus - possibly one that causes the common cold - present in the same infected cells, according to researchers.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
2hats said:
Fresh from the 'mutations' thread, for those who don't subscribe.
www.reuters.com

Omicron variant may have picked up a piece of common-cold virus

The Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 likely acquired at least one of its mutations by picking up a snippet of genetic material from another virus - possibly one that causes the common cold - present in the same infected cells, according to researchers.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...
Ah, as you may recall I've been waiting for any signs of recombination for ages, perhaps this is the first clear sign of such things.

I suppose this will increase speculation about both increased transmissibility and also the whole 'mild' thing. I dont think I'll be able to tell the difference between good news, bad news or a mix of bad and good news on this front for a while yet. I also end up wondering whether it may have anything to do with the hospitalised age patterns that have shown up in South Africa data.
 
xenon said:
The news reports on that super spreader incident also said simptoms were mild. No one of that lot has been hospitalised.
Click to expand...
Let's hope but there's a bit of lag for hospitalisation. I guess the issue is that even if it is mild and hospitalises, say half as many people, if it infects 5 times as many then we're pretty fucked.
 
2hats said:
The implication of such a small difference (the smallest possible) is that it is extremely likely that one infected the other.
Click to expand...

it actually freaks me out that we (not me obvs) are capable of measuring something so tiny with anything approaching accuracy 🙁
 
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