Omicron news

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Other forums are best avoided to be honest. Bunch of idiots.

 

[LDC]

So, doubling every 2-3 days here in the UK. Anyone got the modelling for what that looks like in various scenarios?

 

[prunus]

So, doubling every 2-3 days here in the UK. Anyone got the modelling for what that looks like in various scenarios?

100k cases a day by Christmas. 1 million a day a week and a half later unless lockdown brought in.

 

[gentlegreen]

How about getting slightly infected ? (fully-vaxxed and masked)
One of the reasons I got my flu jab this year was because it dawned on me that I might have previously been getting inoculating doses of flu that stopped me getting ill very often ... I certainly never got "colds" per se and when I was sick, it was 4 days off work ...

 

[Supine]

So, doubling every 2-3 days here in the UK. Anyone got the modelling for what that looks like in various scenarios?

There is this. But a few days old…

 

[LDC]

How about getting slightly infected ? (fully-vaxxed and masked)
One of the reasons I got my flu jab this year was because it dawned on me that I might have previously been getting inoculating doses of flu that stopped me getting ill very often ... I certainly never got "colds" per se and when I was sick, it was 4 days off work ...

Not sure I get what you mean, or are asking?

 

[gentlegreen]

Not sure I get what you mean, or are asking?

After 2 years without catching anything, I'm torn about ever going unmasked around other people ...

As and when a mild form of covid shows up, or it becomes seasonal, presumably vaccination will reduce to once a year combined with flu and the rest of the time we will be expected to just catch it ?

 

[LDC]

There is this. But a few days old…

Thanks both, but is there the Imperial or LSHTM modelling there has been before?

 

[Flavour]

I am supposed to be flying to the UK from Italy on December 19th. (I had a similar drama last Christmas where I got stuck in Amsterdam due to flight cancellations). Wonder if I will be able to come back this year, or, more aptly, if I should. Perhaps not a good idea.

 

[elbows]

Thanks both, but is there the Imperial or LSHTM modelling there has been before?

I'm guessing some modelling showing scenarios under different ranges of increased transmissibility and immune escape have been done in recent days, and probably formed part of a presentation given to Johnson yesterday. Exactly when that stuff will be made public remains to be seen, possibly more quickly than usual if new measures are announced today, although there may still be some publication lag.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'm guessing some modelling showing scenarios under different ranges of increased transmissibility and immune escape have been done in recent days, and probably formed part of a presentation given to Johnson yesterday. Exactly when that stuff will be made public remains to be seen, possibly more quickly than usual if new measures are announced today, although there may still be some publication lag.

There's a Downing Street press conference today - SEE HERE.

 

[elbows]

Given the need to keep people engaged with vaccination programmes and not fall foul of utter defeatism, I was expecting some sugarcoating of the Omicron situation. However I consider the WHO's sugarcoating to be a bit too much, although only time will tell whether I find cause to have massive rants about some of these words or whether the gap between reality and rhetoric doesnt turn out to be too extreme:

Covid: Vaccines should work against Omicron variant, WHO says

A small study in South Africa suggests the new variant could partially evade the Pfizer jab.

www.bbc.co.uk

I dont have enough data or strong enough evidence to have a high degree of confidence in my own ability to judge what the mix of good and bad news with Omicron really is at this stage. Not all of the tentative clues are as negative as might have been expected. But if we read between the lines of the actions that national authorities feel the need to take now, there is quite a gap between that and the 'reassuring, dont panic' sentiments from the WHO in recent days. Its obvious which side I will err on, the cautious side!

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

Thanks both, but is there the Imperial or LSHTM modelling there has been before?

SAGE meeting details leaked to the BBC again (the late November meeting minutes were also leaked). Not as good as having modelling graphs published but contains some strong clues about what some modelling probably showed. Article headline features a watered down estimate compared to the body of the article:

The scientists say it is "highly likely" Omicron will account for the majority of new coronavirus infections in the UK within "a few weeks".

And they say the peak of the wave is "highly likely to be higher" than 1,000-2,000 Omicron hospital admissions per day without new rules to slow the spread of rising infections.

Covid: Omicron hospital admissions could reach 1,000 a day - scientific advisers

The BBC has seen minutes of a meeting of scientific advisers which warn of NHS pressure from Omicron.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[BigMoaner]

My work, big uni, told to work from home Tom till fn

 

[weltweit]

WHO on the news saying DONT WAIT till your hospitals are full from Omicron, act now, don't wait!

 

[Ming]

It does sound like a transformer though.

 

[BigMoaner]

is this ever going to end

 

[Numbers]

is this ever going to end

Not for a few more years by the looks of it.

 

[8ball]

Not for a few more years by the looks of it.

Well, for the richer part of the world, maybe in a couple of years. Sadly, it’s not going to be an even thing.

 

[elbows]

 

[Pickman's model]

is this ever going to end

it's as long as a piece of string

 

[8ball]

it's as long as a piece of string

11 centimetres?
I could have sworn it's been longer.

 

[Pickman's model]

It does sound like a transformer though.

 

[nosos]

Who is cancelling Christmas travel plans? I can't see how this won't have much worse by Christmas

 

[Pickman's model]

My work, big uni, told to work from home Tom till fn

where i am we've got to risk the lurgy continue coming in

 

[Pickman's model]

Who is cancelling Christmas travel plans? I can't see how this won't have much worse by Christmas

it will be much worse and the government is going to cancel christmas plans

 

[elbows]

SAGE meeting of 7th Deember minutes are available. The BBC received a leak of these recently and so I already discussed possible hospitalisation numbers. The whole thing is worth a read, here I am just quoting some stuff I found especially noteworthy.

SAGE 98 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 December 2021

www.gov.uk

11. The impact of changes in transmissibility and immune escape on overall numbers of admissions is likely to be much more significant than the impact of any changes in severity (high confidence).

12. There are other impacts from high levels of incidence aside from hospitalisations and deaths, including the morbidity burden in those who are not hospitalised and workforce absences. With very rapid doubling times a large wave could occur leading to synchronous absences from work.

14. The faster the growth in infections at the point measures are introduced, the more admissions will increase in the period between action being taken and the number of admissions being affected. With lags of the order of two or more weeks, and doubling times of the order of three days, it is likely that, once hospitalisations begin to increase at a rate similar to that of cases, four doublings (a 16-fold increase) or more could already be “in the system” before interventions that slow infections are reflected in hospitalisations.

16. Given the rapid increase, decision makers will need to consider urgently which measures to introduce to slow the growth of infections if the aim is to reduce the likelihood of unsustainable pressure on the NHS. The effectiveness of these will be dependent on the measures chosen, and also on behavioural responses. Evidence suggests that measures could be reintroduced with expectation of a similar level of adherence as has been seen in the past. Adherence is likely to be higher if messaging and policy have clear rationales and are consistent. Consistency across the UK may help with messaging.

17. The generation time for Omicron is not known, but it is possible that it is shorter than for Delta, which would mean that case-based interventions (for example finding and isolating cases through contact tracing) become less effective because people become infectious sooner. This would increase the relative importance of population-based rather than case-based measures, namely measures which affect everyone, not just those who are confirmed as being infected.

20. Nosocomial transmission is likely to be an even greater risk as a result of Omicron, particularly as hospitalisations increase. Measures will need to be put in place to reduce this risk including measures to reduce the risk of healthcare workers becoming infected and infecting others, and measures to reduce the risk of transmission between patients. Other vulnerable settings (for example care homes and prisons) will also need particular attention. Reducing nosocomial spread will be even more difficult with a more highly transmissible variant.

22. Pharmaceutical interventions including antivirals will also continue to be important. Though antivirals should be used in combination where possible to reduce the risk of resistance developing, this will not be possible in the forthcoming wave of infections due to availability and lack of clinical trial data for combination approaches. Resistance monitoring, particularly in immunocompromised patients, will be needed and preparation should be made for combination therapies to be tested and rolled out as soon as practical.

 

[andysays]

SAGE meeting of 7th Deember minutes are available. The BBC received a leak of these recently and so I already discussed possible hospitalisation numbers. The whole thing is worth a read, here I am just quoting some stuff I found especially noteworthy.

SAGE 98 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 December 2021

www.gov.uk

So presumably the new measures announced yesterday were decided after that assessment and advice was available.

They really haven't gone nearly far enough or fast enough, have they?

 

[elbows]

So presumably the new measures announced yesterday were decided after that assessment and advice was available.

They really haven't gone nearly far enough or fast enough, have they?

I'd say there is a very real risk of a very sharp, intense catastrophe.

That isnt the only possible outcome I have in mind, but I would rather fear the worst and then be delighted if I have to spend lots of time later explaining why it didnt happen. If it doesnt happen, we will likely learn much about the state of immunity in this country as a result of dodging such a potent bullet. Either that or us dodging the bullet in a different way, eg by people in their masses responding to the threat in a much stronger way than is currently evident or demanded by authorities.

The authorities rarely go fast enough of strong enough for my liking. They've gone a bit faster but weaker this time, and the theoretical risks posed by this variant means that they'd always have needed to go faster than previously in order to even come close to previous results (again, unless our immunity picture and Omicrons ability to blast past a big chunk of it turns out to be balanced so much more in our favour than experts dare presume at this stage).

I dont doubt that authorities will have to go much further if the picture continues along the same tracks SAGE are implying. But I cant predict when exactly, at least not many hours or days in advance of those moments arriving.