Wasn’t expecting this, and there is no obvious successor. Kate Forbes maybe, but really nobody has the profile or clout to be the obvious choice.
secondary cadres are pisspoor on the whole. It's a bit early for Forbes I think. She is also significantly more rightwing than Sturgeon and absolutely in hock to Charlotte Street lobbyists.
The trouble for those chugging themselves into a frenzy over Sturgeon's departure, as I have said many times before, is that there is simply no credible opposition / government in waiting in Scotland. Ross, Sarwar and whoever is leading what's left of the Liberals these days are simply not credible alternative first ministers and no one is interested in whatever alternative programme they may be advocating.
Therefore the SNP simply need someone who can walk in a straight line, write their own name and not recently have dipped their hands in the till, or have some sexual peccadillo lurking like a career iceberg on the murky waters of social media private messages, and they will be first minster for a good while yet, assuming they get through the 2025 election unscathed.
The job of SNP FM is this; froth a lot about a second referendum, do nothing to actually advance that referendum happening, whilst at the same time keeping corporate Scotland onside with nice cut price trinkets (the floor of the North Sea / Scottish renewable energy licences, anyone?) and steer a dour managerialist course ("decision making for grown ups").
Atrophy of the public services and political entropy will continue to be our lot. The new FM will blame Sturgeon's shortcomings and whatever sap is in charge of season 1,667 of 10 Downing Street, on at 4 am on UK Gold 2, for any problems. Oh, and a referendum held in two yearzzzzz...