New Space (Arms) Race Watch

[not-bono-ever]

there is a mad, dated, biased, but oddly engrossing novel " the war in 2020" written by an ex US army high ranker that deals with some of the issues in this thread. pick it up in a charity shop if you see it and have nothing better to do .

 

[ska invita]

If you have space arms you can target satellites, you can have bombs in space which can be targeted onto any country, and some way down the line you could fire a directed energy weapon. If you fucked eg Iraq by destroying satellites vital to its communications any ground ops would go much easier. But would you need to? In many if not most cases possessing the ability to remove communications could lead to a country like Iraq bending to your will

I'm not sure about your speculations there.

My memory of Reagans Star Wars was that energy weapons would shoot things in space/the air, rather than targets on the ground. Surely drones and planes are better for that.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm not sure about your speculations there.

My memory of Reagans Star Wars was that energy weapons would shoot things in space/the air, rather than targets on the ground. Surely drones and planes are better for that.

Your thinking I regret rooted in the 1980s. This is not going to be Reagan star wars but a rather more advanced project. Iirc Reagan talking about shooting down missiles. Why stop at shooting down missiles? There'd be no wait for air support if you just adjusted the aim of a directed energy weapon to take out people ambushing your troops etc. The dominance of space means the dominance of earth.

 

[a_chap]

.... if you just adjusted the aim of a directed energy weapon to take out people ambushing your troops etc.

Pickmans ahead of the game as always.

 

[ska invita]

Space Force is no farce – this is a battle for the riches of the galaxy

Donald Trump's much-mocked space agency is a sign that the contest to control near-Earth resources is already heating up

www.telegraph.co.uk

[intro cut out]

Nasa is, overall, a purely scientific organisation. “As explorers, pioneers, and innovators, we boldly expand frontiers in air and space to inspire and serve America and to benefit the quality of life on Earth,” the space agency’s vision statement says.

But the industry focus is now being slowly channelled towards defence and profits, as governments change these high-minded research institutes into agents of geopolitical strategies. Nasa is now likely to see a period of mission creep – it will start to slowly change to help boost Washington’s geopolitical strategy.

This week, Nasa and the Space Force signed a memorandum of understanding that officially joins the two entities in collaboration with regard to “human spaceflight, US space policy, space transportation, standards and best practices for safe operations in space, scientific research and planetary defines”.

This comes after China launched its first experimental reusable space vehicle at the start of September. The test was undertaken under a veil of secrecy – with no official launch photos or a launch time disclosed.

Although China remains behind Russia and the US in its space technology, it plans to rapidly catch up. And it will use every tactic in the China technology playbook, particularly the foul used for technology transfer of US intellectual property, to do so.

This week, a study by US-based China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) claimed China attacked Indian satellite communications in 2017, among other counter-space activities. Between 2012 and 2018, Beijing carried out multiple cyber attacks – even as the Indian Space Research Organisation maintains that its systems had not been compromised.

China has multiple other counter-space technologies, according to the report, including anti-satellite missiles, co-orbital satellites, directed-energy weapons, jammers, and cyber capabilities that are intended to threaten adversary space systems “from ground to geosynchronous orbit”.
It looks like the battle to control near-Earth space is going to be particularly hot.

So, what riches are on offer? Well, potentially trillions of dollars in commodities from the Moon and asteroids. The Moon has valuable deposits of gold, iron, magnesium and titanium.

But the mining interest is also fuelled by concerns about the longer-term supply of important elements such as rare earth metals, which are used in communications and other cutting-edge devices. Water is also likely to be a major prize for any such prospectors.
Essentially, space is about to become the new California gold rush, but with infinitely more riches to be had if you can get to the deposits first.

Earlier this year Donald Trump signed an executive order that cleared the way for US companies to start mining in space without any international-agreed treaty governing their behaviour – a move decried by Russia as “space colonialism”.

America has not signed any major international agreements and effectively declared a free-for-all in space assets. The urgency among America’s rivals to get on with their own projects is therefore clear.

China is moving fast. One of its companies – Origin Space – plans to launch an ‘asteroid-mining robot’ by November. Of course, this is just a test drone that is testing some equipment, but it represents a significant step towards kickstarting a new space mining industry.

On Tuesday, Nasa announced plans to build a moon base by the end of the decade. The so-called Artemis programme is expected to start in 2021 with a test launch of its new Orion rocket. Space tourism is also about to become a reality. Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic plans to conduct its next crewed spaceflight test on 22 October.

Then there is only one more test flight to be undertaken before Sir Richard takes a seat in the craft and flies to the edge of space in what will undoubtedly become a huge public relations event.
As these industries develop, there will be significant opportunities for real estate investors to own cornerstone assets in infrastructure, these could be space hotels, docking stations and private companies could even build moon bases to rival Nasa if they get the funding.

This may all seem to be science fiction but, on a planet with low economic growth, colonising objects near to the Earth to exploit their natural resources makes complete sense. Unless it starts a war in the process, of course

 

[likesfish]

Sats for Comms navigation and reconnaissance are vital.
Blowing them up risks your own and everyone else's.
Russia has slightly more nukes than the US but that's all its got Putin's desire for cold war 2 isnt matched by his budget armata the super new russian tank would be pants wetting terrifying to NATO if Russia could afford but they ordered 14 won't be called up to dig in somewhere in Poland anytime soon.
China's spitting out warships like the British did but really doesn't know why it wants to be No1

 

[ska invita]

Good long read in the FT today on China's space ambitions

China’s ambitions in space: national pride or taking on the Americans?

A lack of international co-ordination could undermine Beijing’s bid to reap the rewards from becoming a space superpower

www.ft.com

Google "China’s ambitions in space: national pride or taking on the Americans?" and click on first result to get past pay wall.

key points:

1. Space programme is really important to the Chinese state, in terms of prestige and programme towards global technological superiority

2. This is "an extensive “civil-military fusion” programme that is designed to create a flow of information from the private and civilian sector to military actors. “It’s an ambiguous operating environment because the technology in space, whether it is a launch vehicle or a satellite, is inherently dual-use,” meaning it has both military or civilian applications, says Hilborne.

3. "Counterspace":
" The US sees China’s efforts in space in unambiguously strategic terms. Fears of a new arms race are driven by the prospect of China and the US extending a tense diplomatic rivalry into outer space. “Beijing is working to match or exceed US capabilities in space to gain the military, economic and prestige benefits that Washington has accrued from space leadership,” said the annual threat assessment published by the office of the US director of national intelligence. A big part of what Washington perceives as a threat derives from China’s preparedness in “counterspace”, an arena of warfare in which countries develop weapons that are able to shoot down or disable the satellites that adversaries use to keep civilian and military information networks running.

Beijing’s progress in such weaponry in recent years has been so striking that leading US analysts say that nowhere in space is safe from the reach of China’s counterspace capabilities. “China can threaten US military, commercial and civil satellites in all orbits from LEO to GEO,” says Todd Harrison, director of the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS, a Washington-based think-tank. LEO refers to low earth orbit, which is usually put at within 1,000km from Earth, and GEO refers to geostationary orbit, or 35,786km from Earth.

4. US - China Space Cold War
"Biden has made clear that his administration does not intend to dismantle the US Space Command and Space Force, a new branch of the military services to guide US combat readiness in space established under his predecessor Donald Trump. Even if the new administration decided it wants to seek more co-operation in space, it would need to overcome a legal obstacle. A 2011 law, known colloquially as the “Wolf amendment”, bars Nasa from working with Chinese scientists over concerns of technology theft. As a result, Chinese taikonauts are unable to visit the US-led International Space Station. "

 

[Yossarian]

It makes me want to puke seeing the praise for China's Mars landing - yes, it's an impressive technical achievement but anything that gives those evil motherfuckers in Beijing a propaganda victory is a step backward for humanity should not be celebrated, I hope their Mars lander explodes.

 

[ska invita]

It makes me want to puke seeing the praise for China's Mars landing - yes, it's an impressive technical achievement but anything that gives those evil motherfuckers in Beijing a propaganda victory is a step backward for humanity should not be celebrated, I hope their Mars lander explodes.

how does the US on Mars make you feel?
or rather, i agree, and feel the same way about the USA
Yankee Go Home

 

[Yossarian]

how does the US on Mars make you feel?

It makes me feel like I encounter a brick wall of whataboutery every time I slag off the Beijing regime and its space propaganda.

 

[ska invita]

It makes me feel like I encounter a brick wall of whataboutery every time I slag off the Beijing regime and its space propaganda.

not whataboutery, its andalsoism

 

[Yossarian]

not whataboutery, its andalsoism

And what's it in aid of? I don't like the American government any more than you do but those shitheads in Beijing are exponentially worse, and I shouldn't have to go into this every time I express ill will towards China's space program,

 

[Yossarian]

I think it's a big part of why China has such an extensive space program - the CCP thinks it will give the regime legitimacy and prestige on the world stage, when the truth is that it's a regime that's never been legitimately elected in its 70-year existence and its behaviour makes it the shittiest and most uncivilised government on the planet.

They could send a spacecraft at warp speed to Alpha Centauri tomorrow and they'd still be total fucking barbarians if they kept the same policies in place in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong.

 

[ska invita]

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the government would be publishing a space strategy in the autumn.
He said space was under threat and the UK needed to protect its key national infrastructure.

US wants giant radar in UK to track space objects

It comes amid growing concern about congestion, competition and even an arms race in space.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[cyberpink]

Just want to check here. None of you are taking the UFO disclosure stuff seriously yet? Like, it turns out that Area 51 and Roswell stuff actually happened.
And the US admits it. There are hundreds of UFO in places like Bermuda and off the coast of California that appear on military radar every day, and we're all chill about that? That they were switching on and off nuclear silos in the UK and Russia and USA just for fun?
And now we have kids summoning UFO and alt/reality beings for kicks, but this is a matter of faith?

There is a reason Space Force and Musk and Branson and Besos are spending big in space machines. You need to wake the fuck up.

We are a planet being buzzed by more beings than flies on a frog on the freeway with his hopper busted. We are not alone. Get used to that.

I mean really. Wake the fuck up. It's your money. Sure this could all be some cover up to hide superstratos fast missile delivery systems. But the tests don't add up.
The politics don't add up either. We as a planet are about to see some real shit flip the script on everything we thought we knew.

Join the dots. Prepare for anal probing in your bots.

US wants giant radar in UK to track space objects - BBC News

It comes amid growing concern about congestion, competition and even an arms race in space.

www.bbc.co.uk

UK Space Command

UK Space Command is the defence lead for space operations, space workforce, and space capability. It’s a joint command, staffed by personnel from the Royal Navy, British Army, and Royal Air Force, alongside civil servants and contractors.

www.gov.uk

Germany establishes new military space command

The German military has announced the creation of a separate command dedicated to space, becoming the latest of a handful of nations prioritizing more resources and missions among the stars.

www.defensenews.com

The schoolkids who said they saw 'aliens'

In 1994, 60 children at a Zimbabwe school said they'd seen a "UFO" - a BBC crew was first on the scene.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[NoXion]

The US admitted the existence of aerial phenomena that they could not explain. Not alien spacecraft. They didn't admit anything alien about Roswell either. You are fantasising.

 

[ska invita]

The US admitted the existence of aerial phenomena that they could not explain. Not alien spacecraft. They didn't admit anything alien about Roswell either. You are fantasising.

dont engage with it, its a derail machine

 

[ska invita]

China tests new space capability with hypersonic missile​

Launch in August of nuclear-capable rocket that circled the globe took US intelligence by surprise

The new hypersonic glide vehicle was launched with a “Long March” rocket, seen here carrying China’s Chang’e-5 lunar probe for its space programme.

China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August that circled the globe before speeding towards its target, demonstrating an advanced space capability that caught US intelligence by surprise. Five people familiar with the test said the Chinese military launched a rocket that carried a hypersonic glide vehicle which flew through low-orbit space before cruising down towards its target. The missile missed its target by about two-dozen miles, according to three people briefed on the intelligence. But two said the test showed that China had made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and was far more advanced than US officials realised. The test has raised new questions about why the US often underestimated China’s military modernisation. “We have no idea how they did this,” said a fourth person.

The US, Russia and China are all developing hypersonic weapons, including glide vehicles that are launched into space on a rocket but orbit the earth under their own momentum. They fly at five times the speed of sound, slower than a ballistic missile. But they do not follow the fixed parabolic trajectory of a ballistic missile and are manoeuvrable, making them harder to track.

Taylor Fravel, an expert on Chinese nuclear weapons policy who was unaware of the test, said a hypersonic glide vehicle armed with a nuclear warhead could help China “negate” US missile defence systems which are designed to destroy incoming ballistic missiles. “Hypersonic glide vehicles . . . fly at lower trajectories and can manoeuvre in flight, which makes them hard to track and destroy,” said Fravel, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Fravel added that it would be “destabilising” if China fully developed and deployed such a weapon, but he cautioned that a test did not necessarily mean that Beijing would deploy the capability. Mounting concern about China’s nuclear capabilities comes as Beijing continues to build up its conventional military forces and engages in increasingly assertive military activity near Taiwan. Tensions between the US and China have risen as the Biden administration has taken a tough tack on Beijing, which has accused Washington of being overly hostile.

US military officials in recent months have warned about China’s growing nuclear capabilities, particularly after the release of satellite imagery that showed it was building more than 200 intercontinental missile silos. China is not bound by any arms-control deals and has been unwilling to engage the US in talks about its nuclear arsenal and policy.

Last month, Frank Kendall, US air force secretary, hinted that Beijing was developing a new weapon. He said China had made huge advances, including the “potential for global strikes . . . from space”. He declined to provide details, but suggested that China was developing something akin to the “Fractional Orbital Bombardment System” that the USSR deployed for part of the Cold War, before abandoning it. “If you use that kind of an approach, you don’t have to use a traditional ICBM trajectory.

It’s a way to avoid defences and missile warning systems,” said Kendall. In August, General Glen VanHerck, head of North American Aerospace Defense Command, told a conference that China had “recently demonstrated very advanced hypersonic glide vehicle capabilities”. He warned that the Chinese capability would “provide significant challenges to my Norad capability to provide threat warning and attack assessment”.

Two of the people familiar with the Chinese test said the weapon could, in theory, fly over the South Pole. That would pose a big challenge for the US military because its missiles defence systems are focused on the northern polar route. The revelation comes as the Biden administration undertakes the Nuclear Posture Review, an analysis of policy and capabilities mandated by Congress that has pitted arms-control advocates against those who believe the US must do more to modernise its nuclear arsenal because of China. The Pentagon did not comment on the report but expressed concern about China. “We have made clear our concerns about the military capabilities China continues to pursue, capabilities that only increase tensions in the region and beyond,” said John Kirby, spokesperson.

“That is one reason why we hold China as our number one pacing challenge.” The Chinese embassy declined to comment on the test, but Liu Pengyu, spokesperson, said China always pursued a military policy that was “defensive in nature” and its military development did not target any country. “We don’t have a global strategy and plans of military operations like the US does. And we are not at all interested in having an arms race with other countries,” Liu said. “In contrast, the US has in recent years been fabricating excuses like ‘the China threat’ to justify its arms expansion and development of hypersonic weapons. This has directly intensified arms race in this category and severely undermined global strategic stability.” One Asian national security official said the Chinese military conducted the test in August.

China generally announces the launch of Long March rockets — the type used to launch the hypersonic glide vehicle into orbit — but it conspicuously concealed the August launch. The security official, and another Chinese security expert close to the People’s Liberation Army, said the weapon was being developed by the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics. CAAA is a research institute under China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the main state-owned firm that makes missile systems and rockets for China’s space programme.

Both sources said the hypersonic glide vehicle was launched on a Long March rocket, which is used for the space programme. The China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, which oversees launches, on July 19 said on an official social media account that it had launched a Long March 2C rocket, which it added was the 77th launch of that rocket. On August 24, it announced that it had conducted a 79th flight. But there was no announcement of a 78th launch, which sparked speculation among observers of its space programme about a secret launch. CAAA did not respond to requests for comment.

 

[T & P]

They (the big three) are all at it by the sound of it. Which is unsurprising.

Not a fan of any arms race but sadly it’s better if they all acquire missile defence-defeating technology, than any one nation feeling at any point they have achieved first strike capability over all others.

 

[2hats]

Around 0245-0247UT yesterday Russia launched a PL-19 (A-235 based) Nudol anti-satellite missile from Plesetsk, targeting Kosmos 1408 (a long defunct ELINT satellite, Ikar No. 39L, in a high inclination, near-polar orbit, around 480km up). The kill, around 0252UT, intercepted the satellite from behind, creating a debris cloud of at least 1500 trackable objects and probably many thousands of smaller fragments. Since the missile chased the target and the impact was not head on (*see later note), this has likely driven some debris to a slightly higher apogee.

US Space Command statement.



Likely this will pose a risk to the ISS in coming months and years.

NASA Administrator Statement on Russian ASAT Test - NASA

On Monday Moscow Standard Time, the International Space Station (ISS) Flight Control team was notified of indications of a satellite breakup that may create

www.nasa.gov

 

[teqniq]

Fucking dickheads.

 

[Yossarian]

It's bad enough that we're living in a disaster movie, if our planet ends up surrounded by an impenetrable barrier of space junk caused by nations' inability to cooperate, I'm going to get very annoyed about having to live in a preachy Star Trek allegory as well.

 

[Spymaster]

Cool that it works though.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Cool that it works though.

Was surprised to learn that the US, China and India have also blasted satellites to bits. It's like there's a whole world of space war going on quietly in the background.

 

[2hats]

(*later note) The interception geometry isn't clear. The PL-19 Nudol ASAT missile reportedly only has a peak velocity of around Mach 10 so couldn't possibly achieve a kill by 'catch-up' along-track. Possibilities are a cross-track strike or the kill vehicle simply becoming a 'target' for the inactive satellite to plough into. That might not be a very effective kinetic kill though so perhaps uses a HE warhead in that scenario.

Either way debris has now been identified between 520 and 440 km, the lower fringes of which begin to reach down to the typical ISS orbit operating altitude.

Could take up to five years for the majority of debris to re-enter and a good twenty years for most of it to clear.

 

[ska invita]

This is a clear piece

Space debris cloud threatens satellites after Russia missile test​

Space debris cloud threatens satellites after Russia missile test

Tensions between Moscow and Washington rise as weaponisation of space escalates

www.ft.com

which mentions

" Most significantly, Moscow also sees the US Air Force’s X-37B, a secretive “space plane” that orbits the Earth, as a major threat, said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow think-tank. He added Russia’s weapons test this week was designed to target the X-37B, and so carrying out the test at that altitude had been essential.

"The U.S. Air Force's unmanned X-37B space plane has flown four clandestine missions to date, carrying secret payloads on long-duration flights in Earth orbit."

...the US deny the X37B has any potential military capacity

 

[Pickman's model]

(*later note) The interception geometry isn't clear. The PL-19 Nudol ASAT missile reportedly only has a peak velocity of around Mach 10 so couldn't possibly achieve a kill by 'catch-up' along-track. Possibilities are a cross-track strike or the kill vehicle simply becoming a 'target' for the inactive satellite to plough into. That might not be a very effective kinetic kill though so perhaps uses a HE warhead in that scenario.

Either way debris has now been identified between 520 and 440 km, the lower fringes of which begin to reach down to the typical ISS orbit operating altitude.

View attachment 297020


Could take up to five years for the majority of debris to re-enter and a good twenty years for most of it to clear.

In the event of a shooting war in which say 2/3 of satellites were destroyed or rendered inoperative one way or another I wonder how the resultant debris might affect efforts to repopulate civilian (and military) satellites after

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

In the event of a shooting war in which say 2/3 of satellites were destroyed or rendered inoperative one way or another I wonder how the resultant debris might affect efforts to repopulate civilian (and military) satellites after

If 2/3 of the satellites were destroyed or rendered inoperative we'd have bigger problems that that. Transport of commodities is dependent on satellites and most other industry is as well. Farming is becoming ever more dependent on satellites. If we think shortages are bad now, just wait until 2/3 of our satellites are gone. We'd find workarounds at some point. We'd eventually put more satellites up as well. The transition would be painful.

 

[2hats]

The debris has now been observed from 1400km down to below 200km, easily encompassing the ISS orbital altitude (and Starlink, various environmental/weather sats, some IMINT&ELINT spysats, such as was the target here, for example). The debris cloud spreading out quite quickly, with a substantial number of the [trackable=>tend to be larger or higher radar cross-section] fragments moving ahead of the original satellite in fairly eccentric orbits.

 

[T & P]

Well, it seems China has done a world's first during its recent hypersonic weapon test...

China’s hypersonic weapon test in July included a technological advance that enabled it to fire a missile as it approached its target travelling at least five times the speed of sound — a capability no country has previously demonstrated. Pentagon scientists were caught off guard by the advance, which allowed the hypersonic glide vehicle, a manoeuvrable spacecraft that can carry a nuclear warhead, to fire a separate missile mid-flight in the atmosphere over the South China Sea, according to people familiar with the intelligence. Experts at Darpa, the Pentagon’s advanced research agency, remain unsure how China managed to fire countermeasures from a vehicle travelling at hypersonic speeds, said the people familiar with details of the demonstration. Military experts have been poring over data related to the test to understand how China mastered the technology. They are also debating the purpose of the projectile, which was fired by the hypersonic vehicle with no obvious target of its own, before plunging into the water. Some Pentagon experts believe the projectile was an air-to-air missile. Others think it was a countermeasure to destroy missile defence systems so that they could not shoot down the hypersonic weapon during wartime. Russia and the US have also pursued hypersonic weapons for years, but experts say the firing of countermeasures is the latest evidence that China’s efforts are significantly more advanced than either the Kremlin or the Pentagon.

Chinese hypersonic weapon fired a missile over South China Sea

Pentagon struggles to understand how Beijing mastered technology

www.ft.com