beesonthewhatnow
going deaf for a living
Quite. Anyone saying “it won’t happen here” really isn’t paying attention.People who think these sort of assaults on women's bodily liberty and integrity are just some far away thing happening in the US are wrong. Abortion was almost totally prohibited in Northern Ireland until 2019 (including in cases of rape and incest). The European Court of Human Rights has consistently declined to find a right to an abortion, instead affording states a 'wide margin of appreciation' on the issue (this is basically the same as the US Supreme Court saying it's up to US States to decide). In 2020 judges in Poland's top court - largely appointed by the rightwing nationalist government - struck down a law permitting abortions in a narrow range of circumstances - in effect prohibiting virtually all abortions in the process. The Orban regime in Hungary have been pushing an anti-abortion agenda for many years now, and may now feel emboldened by developments in the US and Poland.
I'm quite confident that - in the short term at least - the European Court will start applying stricter standards in its assessment of Member States about their abortion laws - I predict Poland's approach will be found unlawful. In the longer run I'm worried however about whether the Court will survive the current rightwing populist rebellion against rights. Russia is already out and the Johnson regime is in the process of ripping up the Human Rights Act and some senior government officials are threatening to leave the Convention altogether. The Putin Model and the Johnson Model could well encourage other rightwing nationalists wanting to trash human rights, and especially the rights of women, minorities and the poor.
Brexit was never going to happen. Trump was never going to get elected. Nobody would be daft enough to let Johnson be PM. We’d never see a ground war with the possibility of it going nuclear in Europe again.
What has happened is a huge boost to people who want this worldwide. They are going to use it in every way possible.