For all the good husbandry and good habits, the fine coaching, the refusal to splurge on superstars, City have still spent £340m net in transfer fees since Guardiola has been at the club, and hundreds of millions before that, all the while failing to produce a single homegrown first-team regular. Was it ever sustainable? Javier Tebas, the president of La Liga, might just have had a point all along. The numbers really don’t add up.
On one side of this equation City have the third-highest wage bill in world football at £300m. At the same time City have the fifth-largest income. Take out that self-fuelling Etihad sponsorship deal and they’re back in eighth. An inability to grow their commercial income has been the sticking point.
The grace note is the growth in broadcast income. Crucially it is here City stand to lose under the Uefa ban. Third in wages, fifth in income might look wonky but without their Uefa income the balance goes through the floor, with some estimates suggesting a loss of European football could cost between £100m-£150m per year.
This would leave an apocalyptic hole, one that makes the current squad simply unsustainable. City recently handed new deals to a rump of first-team regulars, which hardly eases the basic problem of how to keep the lights on.