Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanishes without trace

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I think Thriller's got a point. They should grub up the runways at Heathrow and turn them in to two long lakes. We could use them for rowing races in between aircraft movements

 

[Teaboy]

I think Thriller's got a point. They should grub up the runways at Heathrow and turn them in to two long lakes. We could use them for rowing races in between aircraft movements

Aye those great big scoops the planes have under each wing will just make them glide across the surface of a lake.

 

[Dan U]

I think Thriller's got a point. They should grub up the runways at Heathrow and turn them in to two long lakes. We could use them for rowing races in between aircraft movements

Land 380s at the Eton Olympic lakes

 

[Teaboy]

so how do you know there were not calm waters when the plane went down, smart shit?

And just to help you a bit more, here is the wiki regarding the plane's last known location:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Forties

The Serpentine on a late June evening it is not.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Land 380s at the Eton Olympic lakes

Could just have the first class cabins land in the Eton lakes, business class on the Thames at Datchet and economy on the Heathrow lakes, in Hounslow

 

[2hats]

so how do you know there were not calm waters when the plane went down

Wind scatterometer data acquired at the time:



indicates 30 knot winds in the vicinity in question (between the two arrows). This would give rise to waves such that 10% are less than 1m, frequent wave height is 2.5m, average wave height 3m, significant wave height 5m and 10% of all waves are greater than 5m (Oceanography and Seamanship, Van Dorn).

Summary: not even remotely flat. Which would also explain the difficulty in trying to locate debris.

e2a: 30 knots -> force 7:

 

[gabi]

I see piers morgan and clarkson are going head to head over this. Classy from clarkson as always.

 

[existentialist]

so how do you know there were not calm waters when the plane went down, smart shit?

There's a difference between a smoothly flowing river and open ocean, no matter how calm.

Oh, and could you go to your nearest swimming pool with a high diving board, and belly flop off the highest one, then come back and tell us how soft the water was? Ta.

 

[thriller]

Oh, and could you go to your nearest swimming pool with a high diving board, and belly flop off the highest one, then come back and tell us how soft the water was? Ta.

I suggest you go and as this guy.

 

[laptop]

Statement from UK AAIB - Air Accidents Investigation Branch.

It seems the Doppler method for determining whether the plane was going N or S is plausible.

25/03/14

on 13 march we received information from uk satellite company inmarsat indicating that routine automatic communications between one of its satellites and the aircraft could be used to determine several possible flight paths.

Inmarsat uk has continued to refine this analysis and yesterday the aaib presented its most recent findings, which indicate that the aircraft flew along the southern corridor.

As you have heard, an aircraft is able to communicate with ground stations via satellite.

If the ground station has not heard from an aircraft for an hour it will transmit a 'log on / log off' message, sometimes referred to as a ‘ping’, using the aircraft’s unique identifier. If the aircraft receives its unique identifier it returns a short message indicating that it is still logged on. This process has been described as a “handshake” and takes place automatically.

From the ground station log it was established that after acars stopped sending messages, 6 complete handshakes took place.

The position of the satellite is known, and the time that it takes the signal to be sent and received, via the satellite, to the ground station can be used to establish the range of the aircraft from the satellite. This information was used to generate arcs of possible positions from which the northern and southern corridors were established.

Refined analysis from inmarsat
in recent days inmarsat developed a second innovative technique which considers the velocity of the aircraft relative to the satellite. Depending on this relative movement, the frequency received and transmitted will differ from its normal value, in much the same way that the sound of a passing car changes as it approaches and passes by. This is called the doppler effect. The inmarsat technique analyses the difference between the frequency that the ground station expects to receive and that actually measured. This difference is the result of the doppler effect and is known as the burst frequency offset.

The burst frequency offset changes depending on the location of the aircraft on an arc of possible positions, its direction of travel, and its speed. In order to establish confidence in its theory, inmarsat checked its predictions using information obtained from six other b777 aircraft flying on the same day in various directions. There was good agreement.

While on the ground at kuala lumpur airport, and during the early stage of the flight, mh370 transmitted several messages. At this stage the location of the aircraft and the satellite were known, so it was possible to calculate system characteristics for the aircraft, satellite, and ground station.

During the flight the ground station logged the transmitted and received pulse frequencies at each handshake. Knowing the system characteristics and position of the satellite it was possible, considering aircraft performance, to determine where on each arc the calculated burst frequency offset fit best.

The analysis showed poor correlation with the northern corridor, but good correlation with the southern corridor, and depending on the ground speed of the aircraft it was then possible to estimate positions at 0011 utc, at which the last complete handshake took place. I must emphasise that this is not the final position of the aircraft.

There is evidence of a partial handshake between the aircraft and ground station at 0019 utc. At this time this transmission is not understood and is subject to further ongoing work.

No response was received from the aircraft at 0115 utc, when the ground earth station sent the next log on / log off message. This indicates that the aircraft was no longer logged on to the network.

Therefore, some time between 0011 utc and 0115 utc the aircraft was no longer able to communicate with the ground station. This is consistent with the maximum endurance of the aircraft.

This analysis by inmarsat forms the basis for further study to attempt to determine the final position of the aircraft. Accordingly, the malaysian investigation has set up an international working group, comprising agencies with expertise in satellite communications and aircraft performance, to take this work forward.

In annex i (attached) there are three diagrams, showing:

Doppler correction contributions

this diagram shows the doppler contributions to the burst frequency offset.


Mh370 measured data against predicted tracks

the blue line is the burst frequency offset measured at the ground station for mh370.

The green line is the predicted burst frequency offset for the southern route, which over the last 6 handshakes show close correlation with the measured values for mh370.

The red line is the predicted burst frequency offset for the southern route, which over the last 6 handshakes does not correlate with the measured values for mh370.


Example southern tracks

this shows the southern tracks for a ground speed of 400 and 450 knots ground speed. It should be noted that further work is required to determine the aircraft speed and final position.

http://postimg.org/image/5sg7jcbjj/
http://postimg.org/image/bunu9tzzj/
http://postimg.org/image/b6ezqw19r/

 

[2hats]

Statement from UK AAIB - Air Accidents Investigation Branch.

The last AAIB graphic of possible routes is interesting as it originates from a location consistent with the PSR data here. (ie last position around MEKAR-NILAM and not IGREX). The final, partial, handshake (0019 UTC) could be indicative of a power change or other change in aircraft state such as reaching fuel exhaustion/switch to ram air turbine.

 

[likesfish]

The Malaysian Prime Minister said "no one survived".. is that not premature, don't aircraft have some kind of inflatable life rafts, it may be unlikely but is it not possible some souls might be alive in a life raft somewhere in the ocean?

Er no even if it by some miracle landed intact on calm water which is unlikey whats considered calm in the middle of an Oceon isnt anybody elses idea of calm then you phyiscally have to get out out of the plane and into a life raft with no experiance planes probably sinking at this point.
Even if you manage that your cold soaking wet no source of heat likey to be hypothermic deaths going to follow pretty quickly.

 

[likesfish]

I went out on a yacht from port stanely on an apprantly calm day in the south atlantic once clear of the island it was fucking terrifying
That was in a proper oceon going yacht in the hands of admittidly barking but very expriance yacht driver.

Life rafts are overgrown rubber dinghys your not lasting very long in one in those conditions

 

[Teaboy]

The final, partial, handshake (0019 UTC) could be indicative of a power change or other change in aircraft state such as reaching fuel exhaustion/switch to ram air turbine.

Yes, running out of fuel does seem to be a likely cause of the crash. It would also fit with its supposed destination and where it actually ended up.

 

[ShakespearO]

If any survivors did manage to launch and board the life rafts, could cannibalism keep at least some of them alive for 2 weeks once the regular supplies have been exhausted?

 

[Lazy Llama]

More chance of them living inside a passing whale, I'd say.

 

[Dogsauce]

I think hypoxia is probably the kindest outcome for those involved, relative to the other possibilities.

 

[savoloysam]

More chance of them living inside a passing whale, I'd say.

This, Sadly.

 

[laptop]

If any survivors did manage to launch and board the life rafts, could cannibalism keep at least some of them alive for 2 weeks once the regular supplies have been exhausted?

Do you have an option on the film script?

Remember the rule of threes:

• 3 minutes without air - dead*
• 3 days without [fresh] water - dead
• 3 months without food - dead

Cannibalism isn't going to help with thirst much. (Nor will going boat-happy...)

* It's an approximation for the sake of numeric assonance, OK?

 

[thriller]

you can survive on rain water.

 

[equationgirl]

you can survive on rain water.

Not indefinitely, and not in the absence of all food sources. How do you propose they catch the rainwater anyway?

 

[thriller]

cupped hands, damp clothes can be wringed for water. improvise.

 

[Dan U]

Stop being a dick

 

[Teaboy]

cupped hands, damp clothes can be wringed for water. improvise.

They're all dead you ghoulish fuck.

 

[Cid]

You should write a book thriller:

From Aeronautical engineer to survival expert: my journey through the trials of life.

 

[thriller]

They're all dead you ghoulish fuck.

equation asked a question, u twat.

 

[xes]

You should write a book thriller:

From Aeronautical engineer to survival expert: my journey through the trials of life.

or "how I got to the tescos Express when the busses weren't running"

 

[smmudge]

I'm pretty sure laptop meant 'fresh' water as opposed to 'sea/salt' water, not rain water (which is fresh).

 

[Pickman's model]

cupped hands, damp clothes can be wringed for water. improvise.

wrung. not wringed. you're wrong.

 

[Pickman's model]

You should write a book thriller:

From Aeronautical engineer to survival expert: my journey through the trials of life.

"you've got to lav-a-tory: the life story of a bullshitter"