London: the unlockening/relockening

[hash tag]

The queues outside the cheesemongers of East Dulwich were quite something when I walked past a couple of hours ago.

It is not to be sniffed at.

 

[andysays]

Hackney's just breached 3000 cases per 100k. (3066).

Looks like that's the highest borough in London.

Haringey where I am has jumped almost 200% to 1757 per 100k.

And all those figures are for the seven days to 17 Dec, so are likely even higher by now.

 

[spitfire]

Just been to Stratford Westfield, (after having covid, recovered, did iso, now neg). Decent amount of mask wearing but still not enough.

It is definitely quieter than previous pre-Xmas visits. Lots of stuff being marked down already.

 

[Sue]

Looks like that's the highest borough in London.

Haringey where I am has jumped almost 200% to 1757 per 100k.

And all those figures are for the seven days to 17 Dec, so are likely even higher by now.

Interestingly, I don't know anyone round here who's tested positive recently but I'm guessing that's because people I know are mainly WFH and not using public transport.

ETA I'm guessing Haringey will be following close behind having similar vaccination rates/demographics, as well as being next door.

 

[klang]

Looks like that's the highest borough in London.

Haringey where I am has jumped almost 200% to 1757 per 100k.

And all those figures are for the seven days to 17 Dec, so are likely even higher by now.

fucking hell. I remember a time when 50/100k was said to be critical.

 

[teuchter]

Looks like that's the highest borough in London.

Haringey where I am has jumped almost 200% to 1757 per 100k.

And all those figures are for the seven days to 17 Dec, so are likely even higher by now.

They are actually quite possibly lower now, because there are signs that parts of London might have peaked a few days ago.

 

[existentialist]

London showing off the new >1600 case rate colour

View attachment 302341

Presumably, the next level up will be some kind of ultraviolet?

 

[hash tag]

They are actually quite possibly lower now, because there are signs that parts of London might have peaked a few days ago.

On the other hand, the new strain shows fewer symptoms which could mean even fewer people think they have got it and getting tested.

Speaking at work today, it sounds like there are 2 people who have now tested positive for a second time

 

[quimcunx]

London showing off the new >1600 case rate colour

View attachment 302341

I was looking at that yesterday and let out a hollow laugh when I saw the brand new shiny black category to cater for 1600+ then the actual numbers in Lambeth of 2500+ .

 

[teuchter]

Each category is double the previous one though, so we are good up to 3199.

 

[quimcunx]

Each category is double the previous one though, so we are good up to 3199.

I noted that too with a blow on my party whistle.

 

[andysays]

Each category is double the previous one though, so we are good up to 3199.

And as noted, Hackney as a whole is already up to 3066, which means that some individual MSOAs are higher.

Dalston Kingsland and De Beauvoir, for instance, is up to 3231.8

 

[teuchter]

North London though so who cares.

 

[marty21]

Hackney's just breached 3000 cases per 100k. (3066).

That might explain why the Billet was pretty empty just now

 

[marty21]

North London though so who cares.

East

 

[Sue]

North London though so who cares.

That's helpful.

 

[magneze]

Each category is double the previous one though, so we are good up to 3199.

Some areas already well above that.

 

[teuchter]

East

Same thing.

 

[Supine]

They are actually quite possibly lower now, because there are signs that parts of London might have peaked a few days ago.

Got any evidence for that?

 

[hash tag]

Both from yesterday

 

[teuchter]

Got any evidence for that?

 

[marty21]

Same thing.

Ffs

 

[mango5]

Useful thread

 

[magneze]

Useful thread

What does this mean?
3. vaccine/immune escape effects vary by type & dose, but on average would lead to a slight increase in severity (except for boosted AZ)

 

[mango5]

magneze I think it means that the presence of so many vaccinated people will slightly increase the chances of the virus mutating. I haven't read the Imperial study he is summarising. I picked the info up from this
International vaccination: Potential impact on viral evolution and UK public health, 21 July 2021

At the individual level, partial immunity may create conditions that favour onward transmission of variants with immune escape-associated mutations [low confidence]. However, it is not yet clear how different vaccines, dosing regimes, or immunity from previous infection may intersect with different variants and individual host characteristics to influence the emergence of immune escape variants.

 

[2hats]

What does this mean?
3. vaccine/immune escape effects vary by type & dose, but on average would lead to a slight increase in severity (except for boosted AZ)

As per the preprint: generally speaking (that is, for any number 1/2/3 of doses and any mix of AZ/Pfizer/Moderna), the risk for vaccinated persons of being hospitalised due to infection by omicron is slightly higher than that for those same persons being hospitalised due to delta. The comparable risk (omicron v delta) for three-dose vaccinees who received AstraZeneca as their primary series is apparently reduced. (Note: it's not directly comparing each vaccine series type to the other, but comparing the same series between exposure to each of those two variants).

However, one should be cautious in interpreting this. First of all insert usual warning about sample size. Then, bear in mind that insufficient time has yet passed to facilitate a more complete analysis based on outcomes (there are 'hospitalised' persons in this study who we do not yet know if they will survive or not*). Finally, if as other studies suggest, at a given timepoint mRNA vaccines could be better at reducing episodes to 'just' asymptomatic cases whilst AstraZeneca might manage to retain a higher efficacy to severe disease/fatality, then this could introduce a bias in this particular result as this study was only assessing people who attended/were admitted to hospital.

* or suffer from sequelae/long covid which are not even considered here.

 

[Winot]

Where I live

 

[magneze]

Yep, on that list too.

 

[pbsmooth]

Is that partly due to being an area with lots of people testing? People about to visit relatives etc.

 

[quimcunx]

13 out of 18 staff at brixton Three had covid last week.