London: the unlockening/relockening

[Pickman's model]

I do actually feel the roadmap is mostly reasonable aside from Boris' Magic Day of Freedom on 21 June. Part of me thinks they're mostly proposing it as they think that once you allow anything beyond small outdoor parties and one other household over indoors it'll be a total free-for-all anyway?

I'll settle for Johnson having a magic day of freedom on 21 June as long as he goes to prison the next day

 

[cupid_stunt]

I do actually feel the roadmap is mostly reasonable aside from Boris' Magic Day of Freedom on 21 June. Part of me thinks they're mostly proposing it as they think that once you allow anything beyond small outdoor parties and one other household over indoors it'll be a total free-for-all anyway?

I agree, as I said on the main thread, we got away with re-opening the schools, I think we could get away with the latest changes, it's the next two stages that could be more of a problem, and, yeah, the June one is the most worrying one.

 

[pbsmooth]

the issue was always hospitals getting full. if most vulnerable people have had vaccine, and people have already had covid too, seems unlikely hosptl numbers would ever rise sufficiently. they are low now.

 

[elbows]

the issue was always hospitals getting full. if most vulnerable people have had vaccine, and people have already had covid too, seems unlikely hosptl numbers would ever rise sufficiently. they are low now.

That isnt what the modelling says though, and that modelling takes account of the UK vaccination programme, rates of infection at the time the modelling was done, and the level of population that has already acquired some natural immunity. The modelling isnt perfect but its a fair guide. And if I recall properly that modelling tends to show bigger third wave once the 3rd and 4th stages of relaxation of measures happen.

 

[pbsmooth]

not sure I can see anything suggesting a 3rd wave would be bigger.

 

[teuchter]

not sure I can see anything suggesting a 3rd wave would be bigger.

The thing that would easily suggest it, is not having any restrictions in place.

 

[pbsmooth]

seems you've tried to be funny and clever but failed at both, so think I'll just ignore you.

 

[marty21]

Did some tube journeys today , Swiss Cottage to Green Park, then up to Southgate & down to Manor House , tubes were still pretty empty all the way.

 

[BigMoaner]

But a third wave of deaths and hospitalisation or a third wave of infection (but without the aforementioned) ? Genuine question.

 

[elbows]

But a third wave of deaths and hospitalisation or a third wave of infection (but without the aforementioned) ? Genuine question.

SAGE modelling group summary from March, when looking at models that take into account unlocking and vaccination programme includes this:

It is highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths after the later steps of the Roadmap. The scale, shape, and timing of any resurgence remain highly uncertain; in most scenarios modelled, any peak is smaller than the wave seen in January 2021, however, scenarios with little transmission reduction after Step 4 or with pessimistic but plausible vaccine efficacy assumptions can result in resurgences in hospitalisations of a similar scale to January 2021.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

Its hard for me to include as much detail as is really necessary when quoting this stuff so maybe better to skim the whole thing. In some other threads I've also included links to the papers from individual universities upon which the summary is based. Scroll down to the Meeting 85, 31st March section of this page for those other papers if interested: SAGE meetings, March 2021

 

[BigMoaner]

Grim and scary and all the rest of it

 

[Teaboy]

not sure I can see anything suggesting a 3rd wave would be bigger.

I'm not having a go but this post has just taken me flying back to September when we were being lectured by a poster (who strangely hasn't posted since) on how the second wave wasn't going to happen but if it did it was going to be mush smaller because second waves always are.

Great days, we've all been through so much together.

 

[elbows]

I'm not having a go but this post has just taken me flying back to September when we were being lectured by a poster (who strangely hasn't posted since) on how the second wave wasn't going to happen but if it did it was going to be mush smaller because second waves always are.

Great days, we've all been through so much together.

There is something of a pattern where a few people with such attitudes appear at times where crucial decisions are being made as to what extent to impose measures, and when. And then they are nowhere to be found when the shit hits the fan.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm not having a go but this post has just taken me flying back to September when we were being lectured by a poster (who strangely hasn't posted since) on how the second wave wasn't going to happen but if it did it was going to be mush smaller because second waves always are.

Great days, we've all been through so much together.

Name name

 

[Teaboy]

Name name

Oh go on then.

Mr Retro

 

[pbsmooth]

I'm not having a go but this post has just taken me flying back to September when we were being lectured by a poster (who strangely hasn't posted since) on how the second wave wasn't going to happen but if it did it was going to be mush smaller because second waves always are.

Great days, we've all been through so much together.

fair enough! I am not remotely in the denial camp but surely we can all agree now is different from then for lots of reasons that would mean for a less likely big wave of hospitalisations and deaths? I certainly, along with everyone else, could see the 2nd wave coming no problem

 

[Teaboy]

fair enough! I am not remotely in the denial camp but surely we can all agree now is different from then for lots of reasons that would mean for a less likely big wave of hospitalisations and deaths? I certainly, along with everyone else, could see the 2nd wave coming no problem

Well, the vaccine situation will hopefully change the picture and there does seem to be a lot of antibodies flying around the population if that means anything. Problem is I'm so frazzled by the last 12 months that I wouldn't want to make any predictions because they've always turned out to be wide of the mark. I've long since accepted that because I hate lockdown so much I'm partial and all I'm doing is wishful thinking.

I'm going to leave it to the experts and as ever hope for the best but prepare (mentally at least) for the worst.

 

[tommers]

 

[wtfftw]

Do we know what was the outcome of the previous 'surge testing' efforts in S london (and elsewhere) - do we know to what extenet they helped to identify and/or contain things?

Dunno about the west Norwood or wherever ones but there's been SA testing in Southwark 3 weeks ago maybe? My postcode was on the list but I heard nothing about it until afterwards and even then not through official channels.

 

[Cloo]

Doing testing for SA variant in our area, apparently will be delivering pcr tests from tomorrow. It's encouraging to see they are responding and trying to track

 

[elbows]

Well, the vaccine situation will hopefully change the picture and there does seem to be a lot of antibodies flying around the population if that means anything. Problem is I'm so frazzled by the last 12 months that I wouldn't want to make any predictions because they've always turned out to be wide of the mark. I've long since accepted that because I hate lockdown so much I'm partial and all I'm doing is wishful thinking.

I'm going to leave it to the experts and as ever hope for the best but prepare (mentally at least) for the worst.

The antibodies from natural infection and from vaccination mean a lot.

But its a question of whether all the protective effect from those is able to carry the same weight that lockdowns etc had to carry in the past.

I suspect if people had a clearer sense of quite what percentage of vulnerable people managed to hide from the virus previously, then my point would be mirrored by comparing that percentage to the percentage of people that are now protected by prior infection and vaccination instead. This is what Im basically getting at when I talk about questions as to what extent vaccination can carry the pandemic weight on its own. Not that vaccination is left to carry 100% of the weight, there will still be some peoples behaviours that dont go back to normal, some lessons in terms of healthcare etc infections, and from some people carrying on wearing masks etc. But vaccines are still being asked to do rather a lot and Im just not sure people fully get that, hence my frequent posts about the modelling thats been done in this respect.

 

[Cloo]

Didn't get tests today, but from what a neighbour was saying I think they may have picked a couple of roads to sample in the area, not including ours. Which I'm fine with as I hate doing the throat swab - but they could extend it, of course.

 

[Cloo]

Have also just (politely, I think) told a local on Next door who titled a post saying there has been an OUTBREAK of variant c19 in our area to please be careful about using alarmist language as this was checking for contacts, not a response to an identified outbreak

 

[elbows]

Have also just (politely, I think) told a local on Next door who titled a post saying there has been an OUTBREAK of variant c19 in our area to please be careful about using alarmist language as this was checking for contacts, not a response to an identified outbreak

It depends what yo think of as an outbreak. I dont think I could claim it wasnt an outbreak, or at least some community spread.

 

[teuchter]

This is what we had through the letterbox this week.


That was as well as this in an email

Dear Resident,

We are in the midst of an incredible busy period with hugely significant events and announcements that impact on our borough having made been made in the last week.

Firstly we would urge that all residents over 11-years-old arrange to take a PCR Covid-19 test in the next week. This is after it was announced that new cases of the variant first identified in South Africa were found in the borough.

The additional testing being introduced will help quickly identify any further cases and help limit any potential spread. Nine additional testing sites have opened across Lambeth and people are encouraged to get a test this week, even if they have no symptoms.

Please visit lambeth.gov.uk/enhancedtesting for more information.

For people who do test positive, Lambeth has a comprehensive Covid-19 self-isolation support service for those who need it. That includes payments of up to £500 for residents on low incomes. To find out more call 0800 054 1215, 9am to 5pm, seven days a week or visit www.lambeth.gov.uk/self-isolate-help.

To me they have not entirely made clear what the purpose of this 'enhanced testing' is. Making clear what the purpose is, must surely influence the level of uptake.

They say it will help quickly identify cases and "help limit any potential spread" but how exactly? If this testing revealed a concentration of cases in one particular area would they then focus on that local area going door-to-door? Or is it a simple case of getting as much of the population tested, to catch as large a proportion of active cases as possible and then get those people to isolate?

Is there a centralised system where a certain threshold being breached within an LA area now triggers this "enhanced testing" being carried out?

 

[Cloo]

We had similar here and did our test two days ago - both negative. I don't know if we'll hear anything back about prevalence of SA variant here. I suppose no news will be good news, but we will be told if there were many cases.

 

[ash]

We had similar here and did our test two days ago - both negative. I don't know if we'll hear anything back about prevalence of SA variant here. I suppose no news will be good news, but we will be told if there were many cases.

It said on the local news that they would be announcing the results of the surge testing in a couple of days

 

[teuchter]

There were some people out on the street handing out flyers today here in Lambeth so it seems they are still asking people to get tests.

 

[pinkmonkey]

Doing testing for SA variant in our area, apparently will be delivering pcr tests from tomorrow. It's encouraging to see they are responding and trying to track

they did this in Tottenham and didn't find any evidence of spread, thankfully.

 

[Winot]

They are sending PCR tests home with all the kids at the Winotettes secondary school (for surge testing).