newbie
undisambiguated
really? Which they? I can't see anything on the Electoral Commission website or in their guidance for ROs.
Of course, you may not be being serious and I may have just fallen for it
Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?
- Thread starter the button
- Start date
Of course, you may not be being serious and I may have just fallen for it
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
A bill is being pushed through to allow the counting to start earlier than before. I'll find a link in the morning, but it's a real thing. I think that a few steps that had to take place before the counts proceeded will no longer have to.
BigTom
Well-Known Member
Is this going to be the sum total of the lib dem's ambitious constitutional reform program?
What do we want?Is this going to be the sum total of the lib dem's ambitious constitutional reform program?
Gradual change!
When do we want it?
In due course!
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Do we have any LDs left on the board, moon has vanished, Kippa hasn't posted Dec 2013, are there any other?
Is trev still around?
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
It's intended to enable constituency counts to go ahead once verified without waiting for local election verification first.
newbie
undisambiguated
fair enough. I suppose I don't feel the nights entertainment will be particularly threatened by that.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Some degree of irony there; a LD 'commentator' writing about the time it will take to count votes.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I reckon most of them will be aware the spell has worn off well before midnight.
Unavoidable really when you've turned back into a pumpkin
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
yeah, but the Oakeshott poll reverted to the expected result once previous voting etc had been taken into account - this poll has no such adjustments. I'd like to believe it, but it's wrong. There is no way the Libs will fall that low, sadly. Don't forget that ten years ago this constituency was supposedly the wealthiest in Britain! The liberal voters are largely wet tories, they want conservatism with a nice face - exactly what Clegg gives them.
Labour could, amazingly, win the seat, but not by 10%. My prediction is that it will be 35-33 either way, with the tories on 20, UKIP 7/8, Greens 2/3 and everyone else on 1.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
ICM reallocated 50% of the DKs to 2010 voting - which is always going to favour an incumbent, esp one with such a large previous lead - but it can also be a deadly mask when a vote is in the process of collapsing.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Earlier this week it came to light that a poll I published last November in Sheffield Hallam included a mistake in the data. Concerned that this may not have been an isolated incident, I reviewed two other polls I commissioned from the same company at the same time. As I feared, the mistakes had been repeated.
The data has now been corrected, and the upshot is that in Sheffield Hallam, rather than having a three-point lead Nick Clegg should have been three points behind Labour:
LAB 30%, LDEM 27%, CON 19%, UKIP 13%, GRN 10%.
In Thanet South, rather than a five-point Conservative lead, the poll should have shown a very tight race with UKIP’s Nigel Farage:
CON 33%, UKIP 32%, LAB 26%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 3%
And in Doncaster North Ed Miliband is a full thirty points clear of his nearest challenger:
LAB 55%, UKIP 25%, CON 13%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 2%.
The results have been updated on the Constituency Polls section of my website, and the corrected data tables for Hallam, Thanet and Doncaster are also on my site.
...
So I must disclose that these three surveys last November are the first and only I have commissioned from a well-known but relatively new polling firm. And no, I won’t be using them again.
The data has now been corrected, and the upshot is that in Sheffield Hallam, rather than having a three-point lead Nick Clegg should have been three points behind Labour:
LAB 30%, LDEM 27%, CON 19%, UKIP 13%, GRN 10%.
In Thanet South, rather than a five-point Conservative lead, the poll should have shown a very tight race with UKIP’s Nigel Farage:
CON 33%, UKIP 32%, LAB 26%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 3%
And in Doncaster North Ed Miliband is a full thirty points clear of his nearest challenger:
LAB 55%, UKIP 25%, CON 13%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 2%.
The results have been updated on the Constituency Polls section of my website, and the corrected data tables for Hallam, Thanet and Doncaster are also on my site.
...
So I must disclose that these three surveys last November are the first and only I have commissioned from a well-known but relatively new polling firm. And no, I won’t be using them again.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
the button
out on the kocker
I'll certainly be staying up on election night to see Nick Clegg cry. Should still be in bed by midnight.
gosub
~#
I'm sure Lord Clegg will get over it fairly quickly
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Nope
Mr.Bishie
pickled egg
Hopefully he'll get kicked to death outside of his polling station.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I wonder what's the lowest number of seats we could realistically hope for them to have after May is. Maybe 30?. They've 43 English Seats, so if they lose all their Welsh seats and all the Scottish bar Orkney and Shetland (which doesn't look that unlikely) they're already down to 44.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
That's Specijal European Comissioner Clegg to you!
(he'll be hived off to a euro job, imo)
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Low to mid 20s is plausible, tho I suspect they'll be pushing thirty in reality.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
...then cut loose when Britain votes to leave the EU twelve months later
(No, I don't think that's a likely outcome, but the opportunity to sack Clegg twice could happen)
gosub
~#
They only have one MEP,and Lord Hill (current UK EU Commissioner won't have been a year in the job)
the button
out on the kocker
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