Let's talk about China

[Yossarian]

I'm surprised by the apparent U-turn - it would be far more in keeping with Xi Jinping's style of ruling to double down on COVID restrictions to demonstrate that protesting won't change anything - and to send every protester to labour camps or indefinite quarantine, though that latter part might still be happening.

As we saw in Hong Kong earlier this year, an omicron outbreak can lead to a massive surge in deaths in a population where few people have had COVID and the elderly haven't been fully vaccinated. In Hong Kong, where there's a relatively robust healthcare system and people had access to better vaccines, deaths were running at close to 300 a day when the outbreak was at its worst - that would equal 60,000 deaths a day if things unfolded the same way on the mainland.



I think mainland authorities have long known that their zero-COVID policy was unsustainable and were waiting for a face-saving "off-ramp" - I won't be surprised if mass deaths and the subsequent waves of chronic illness are blamed on protesters who, influenced by shadowy foreign forces, foolishly subverted the benevolent will of Beijing.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm surprised by the apparent U-turn - it would be far more in keeping with Xi Jinping's style of ruling to double down on COVID restrictions to demonstrate that protesting won't change anything - and to send every protester to labour camps or indefinite quarantine, though that latter part might still be happening.

As we saw in Hong Kong earlier this year, an omicron outbreak can lead to a massive surge in deaths in a population where few people have had COVID and the elderly haven't been fully vaccinated. In Hong Kong, where there's a relatively robust healthcare system and people had access to better vaccines, deaths were running at close to 300 a day when the outbreak was at its worst - that would equal 60,000 deaths a day if things unfolded the same way on the mainland.

View attachment 354597

I think mainland authorities have long known that their zero-COVID policy was unsustainable and were waiting for a face-saving "off-ramp" - I won't be surprised if mass deaths and the subsequent waves of chronic illness are blamed on protesters who, influenced by shadowy foreign forces, foolishly subverted the benevolent will of Beijing.

If you want to get rid of covid lockdown protestors then allowing covid to run riot throughout the population seems to me one way. I didn't know that be careful what you wish for was an adage in Chinese.

 

[skyscraper101]

I'm surprised by the apparent U-turn - it would be far more in keeping with Xi Jinping's style of ruling to double down on COVID restrictions to demonstrate that protesting won't change anything - and to send every protester to labour camps or indefinite quarantine, though that latter part might still be happening.

As we saw in Hong Kong earlier this year, an omicron outbreak can lead to a massive surge in deaths in a population where few people have had COVID and the elderly haven't been fully vaccinated. In Hong Kong, where there's a relatively robust healthcare system and people had access to better vaccines, deaths were running at close to 300 a day when the outbreak was at its worst - that would equal 60,000 deaths a day if things unfolded the same way on the mainland.

View attachment 354597

I think mainland authorities have long known that their zero-COVID policy was unsustainable and were waiting for a face-saving "off-ramp" - I won't be surprised if mass deaths and the subsequent waves of chronic illness are blamed on protesters who, influenced by shadowy foreign forces, foolishly subverted the benevolent will of Beijing.

I'm not that surprised. Everyone knew it was unstainable. I'm just surprised it took this long to figure it out. Though maybe I shouldn't be.

2 entire years to learn from the rest of the world that vaccination and self-isolation at home might be a more rational approach to handling covid rather than carting people off by hazmat suited cops to quarantine camps and welding people into their apartments. I mean, seriously this is Mao-esque levels of stupidity.

Maybe they should have figured out long ago that most of the rest of the world doesn't give a shit about 'face' and virtually every other country has bent, adapted, backtracked and u-turned at some point to deal with Covid. If the CCP stopped posturing and propagating that China is the greatest country on earth for one moment, they wouldn't need to keep this ridiculous face saving bullshit every time they're exposed as the inept and corrupt regime they are.

 

[moochedit]

A rising death rate could also lead to protests later.

 

[elbows]

Maybe they should have figured out long ago that most of the rest of the world doesn't give a shit about 'face' and virtually every other country has bent, adapted, backtracked and u-turned at some point to deal with Covid. If the CCP stopped posturing and propagating that China is the greatest country on earth for one moment, they wouldn't need to keep this ridiculous face saving bullshit every time they're exposed as the inept and corrupt regime they are.

Saving face is still a part of things all around the globe, but the degree to which this trumps other considerations makes a difference. And the face saving neednt be especially effective, its often a pretty transparent act that convinces very few. And in regards both this and 'greatest country on earth' stuff, the UK pandemic story had plenty of rhetoric about how 'worldbeating' the UK had been at particular things, often when Johnson was busy u-turning and blustering.

 

[elbows]

I'm surprised by the apparent U-turn - it would be far more in keeping with Xi Jinping's style of ruling to double down on COVID restrictions to demonstrate that protesting won't change anything - and to send every protester to labour camps or indefinite quarantine, though that latter part might still be happening.

Alternatively there was an expectation, sometimes mentioned explicitly in our media over quite a long period, that once the party conference was out of the way and Xi Jinping had re-cemented power, there would be more room to change policies and rhetoric. And they had already started fiddling with rules before the protests became more notable. The protests probably accelerated some changes but the exact extent to which they've made a difference to the detail and timetable is hard for me to ascertain.

 

[JimW]

U turn ( which sends the message to the protestors that they can make them change policy )

That's pretty consistently been the case in almost everything below actual power of the Party, well understood by the land protestors who would sacrifice a few brave souls to long sentences in the knowledge concessions would come once the dust had settled. Offer usually not valid for non-Han Chinese people sadly.

Funnily enough got waved down at our village checkpoint today to be reminded to wear a mask at all times out and about, which was never the case before if you were in your own vehicle even at the height of first wave. Gran on duty said they'd had an inspection crew round and I did noticed some types in suits on my way out. Regular PCR testing centres going on half time now as requirement lessens. See how getting into other villages goes over the next few days.

 

[AmateurAgitator]

I was meant to have posted this a while back but never got around to it. This is a decent article by the CWO which details what created the protest movement etc and its clearly not just about covid lockdown :

Protests in China: Not Just About Covid

China is currently experiencing the most significant wave of unrest since the labour strikes of the early 2010s, if not since Tiananmen Square. A number of factors are at play here. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in October already elicited symbolic protest in...

www.leftcom.org

 

[ItStillWontWork]

More evidence emerges of how deep the links go between Justin Trudeau and the CCP:

 

[Rimbaud]

Maybe they should have figured out long ago that most of the rest of the world doesn't give a shit about 'face' and virtually every other country has bent, adapted, backtracked and u-turned at some point to deal with Covid. If the CCP stopped posturing and propagating that China is the greatest country on earth for one moment, they wouldn't need to keep this ridiculous face saving bullshit every time they're exposed as the inept and corrupt regime they are.

The face is more about domestic than international here. The Communist Party is all knowing and never wrong about anything. You see this in the language of policy documents - it's never "we need to start doing..." its "we need to continue strengthening..." because without "continue" it implies that they were wrong before. And that can never be.

So much domestic propaganda was built on raising national pride and faith in the Communist Party by engaging in schadenfreude and heavily reporting covid deaths abroad, so to tacitly admit zero covid was wrong is a real loss of authority for the Party. They can certainly recover from it and it isn't a fatal blow, but I think their status and authority in the eyes of average Chinese has suffered significantly from this whole debacle - they only made a rare step backwards because the alternative may well have been a wider loss of control due to widespread simultaneous unrest.

 

[elbows]

The national tracking app is being killed off, but the local tracking which sounds like it actually has more impact on people will remain.

China deactivates national Covid tracking app

It's a further sign that Beijing is moving away from its controversial zero-Covid strategy.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[JimW]

The national tracking app is being killed off, but the local tracking which sounds like it actually has more impact on people will remain.

China deactivates national Covid tracking app

It's a further sign that Beijing is moving away from its controversial zero-Covid strategy.

www.bbc.co.uk

es, only been obliged to use that a couple of times compared to the "Health kit" app which you needed almost daily.

 

[teqniq]

Oh.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/12/china-covid-rules-loosened-winter-wave/

 

[skyscraper101]

"deactivate"

 

[elbows]

Oh.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/12/china-covid-rules-loosened-winter-wave/

Sounds like the beginning of what has been widely predicted and basically considered to be inevitable. The remaining questions are more just about the exact scale and timing that will actually be seen, and what sort of response that provokes, rather than whether such a shitshow would happen at all.

 

[clusterfarce]

The weird little China India war in the Himalayan border had another outbreak.
The fight with clubs and tasers rather than guns. I think China decisively won a round about 2 years ago in Galwan, though Indians claim they won.

Indian and Chinese troops clash on disputed border | CNN

Indian and Chinese troops have clashed on their disputed Himalayan border, the first known incident between the two nuclear-armed Asian powers in nearly two years.

edition.cnn.com

 

[frogwoman]

The weird little China India war in the Himalayan border had another outbreak.
The fight with clubs and tasers rather than guns. I think China decisively won a round about 2 years ago in Galwan, though Indians claim they won.

Indian and Chinese troops clash on disputed border | CNN

Indian and Chinese troops have clashed on their disputed Himalayan border, the first known incident between the two nuclear-armed Asian powers in nearly two years.

edition.cnn.com

That war was horrifying, fighting/killing each other with sticks

 

[frogwoman]

The weird little China India war in the Himalayan border had another outbreak.
The fight with clubs and tasers rather than guns. I think China decisively won a round about 2 years ago in Galwan, though Indians claim they won.

Indian and Chinese troops clash on disputed border | CNN

Indian and Chinese troops have clashed on their disputed Himalayan border, the first known incident between the two nuclear-armed Asian powers in nearly two years.

edition.cnn.com

You've got to wonder about what sort of gear the Chinese Troops have in that case? My guess is it's not as good as we're led to believe

 

[NoXion]

You've got to wonder about what sort of gear the Chinese Troops have in that case? My guess is it's not as good as we're led to believe

Someone will doubtless correct me if I'm mistaken, but it was my understanding that the troops on both sides of the LAC have been ordered by their superiors not to carry firearms, in order to prevent the escalation of disputes such as these.

 

[gosub]

That war was horrifying, fighting/killing each other with sticks

I think you have it backwards, excluding firearms from that region is a plus. Thought China won the early rounds but lost control of some hastily constructed 'buildings' on the wrong side of glaring natural geographical feature quite quickly

 

[moochedit]

80% staff infected and told to work regardless

The Guardian: Chinese doctors and nurses reportedly told to work while infected as Covid surges.

Chinese doctors and nurses reportedly told to work while infected as Covid surges

Some Beijing hospitals have as many as 80% of staff infected, according to one doctor, leading to serious staff shortages

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pickman's model]

80% staff infected and told to work regardless

The Guardian: Chinese doctors and nurses reportedly told to work while infected as Covid surges.

Chinese doctors and nurses reportedly told to work while infected as Covid surges

Some Beijing hospitals have as many as 80% of staff infected, according to one doctor, leading to serious staff shortages

www.theguardian.com

this will end well

 

[Riklet]

Whats the likelihood the next few months are going to see a real shake in the global economy from covid rates skyrocketing in China? I reckon extremely high. Buy your electronic crap and or brand new car now if you can.... can only see current shortages (semiconductors etc) getting worse.

Obviously not many people are getting seriously ill from covid but its more rife in the big cities now and there's just so many people it's still likely we will see a huge health impact and potential health system collapse too. My heart goes out to the health workers there...

 

[gosub]

Whats the likelihood the next few months are going to see a real shake in the global economy from covid rates skyrocketing in China? I reckon extremely high. Buy your electronic crap and or brand new car now if you can.... can only see current shortages (semiconductors etc) getting worse.

Obviously not many people are getting seriously ill from covid but its more rife in the big cities now and there's just so many people it's still likely we will see a huge health impact and potential health system collapse too. My heart goes out to the health workers there...

Shake is already happening from the zero covid looking at shipping manifests

 

[manji]

Big treaty between China, Saudi, Russia and India developing out of Brics.

 

[elbows]

Modelling estimates of deaths have been in the news recently. There was a story about one model coming up with a million deaths there in 2023, but I see Reuters did this article which looks at a bunch of models that include 1.55 million, 'over 2 million' and one with a range of 1.3 to 2.1 million.

Factbox: How many people might die, and why, under relaxed China COVID curbs

China's abrupt end to its zero-COVID policy has raised concerns of widespread infections among a vulnerable, undervaccinated population with little natural immunity that would overload the health system and result in up to 2 million deaths, or more, various research groups are reporting.

www.reuters.com

The low number of deaths that China has officially announced recently do not offer any confidence that we'll get to hear of anything like the real number from authorities. And I have no opinion on how accurate the models will end up being.

Reuters also have articles about the scramble to put in more hospital beds and setup fever clinics, and also one about 'international concern'. The international concern one includes things like vaccine nationalism, fears sbout the effects on the global economy and supply chains, and also the possibility of the China situation leading to new variants. I do roll my eyes a bit at their new variant fears given the relative lack of concern authorities in other countries have shown towards that issue when it comes to the variant risks created by letting the number of cases run rampant in their own countries over a prolonged period of time.

China races to bolster health system as COVID surge sparks global concern

Cities across China scrambled to install hospital beds and build fever screening clinics on Tuesday as authorities reported five more deaths and international concern grew about Beijing's surprise decision to let the virus run free.

www.reuters.com

The world fears a new China COVID wave, ponders how to help Xi

Officials and global health experts outside China are anxiously watching a COVID-19 surge there, worried a nation of 1.4 billion people is inadequately vaccinated and may not have the healthcare tools to treat a wave of illness expected to kill more than one million people through 2023.

www.reuters.com

 

[gosub]

China sends 71 warplanes, 7 ships toward Taiwan in 24 hours

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — China’s military sent 71 planes and seven ships toward Taiwan in a 24-hour display of force directed at the island, Taiwan’s defense ministry said Monday, after China expressed anger at Taiwan-related provisions i n a U.S.

apnews.com

 

[Yossarian]

Also posted on the "coronavirus news" thread - the South China Morning Post looks at how shamefully Beijing has fucked up with its abrupt switch from "zero COVID" to "rampant COVID," which was apparently done with zero consideration of the experience of other countries, zero consideration of the lives of the elderly and otherwise vulnerable, and the usual level of honesty and transparency.

Welcome to nginx!

 

[frogwoman]

I'm finding the Chinese Whispers podcast by the Spectator of all people really interesting and actually pretty balanced tbh

 

[gosub]

UK economy ‘not prepared’ for fallout if China invades Taiwan

Chinese fleet of militarised ships ‘a threat to trade’

The hole in America’s China defence - Jonathan Holslag

It is the failure to balance at the level of low politics, commerce and investment, that makes conflict at the level of high politics, security and defence, more likely.

www.jonathanholslag.be