Strong. However, it's nuanced.
Distance is a huge problem for the US and its allies - they are all sufficiently distant from each other that mutual support is difficult, while each is close enough to China that China can concentrate a huge quantity of force onto each.
On the other hand, neither the Chinese military, nor the Chinese government, have fought a war in living memory. War, as Ukraine shows, isn't simply about numbers, it's much more complicated than that - so there's probably a great of scope for fuck ups on the Chinese side caused by a) unrealistic military exercises that are simply about firepower demonstrations with none of the friction that real world operations are full of, and thats even before a very motivated, skilled enemy starts shooting at you, b) unrealistic political leadership /management who think that a big parade/firepower demonstration is the same as a war, and c) a political/military culture where telling uncomfortable truths about deficiencies in equipment/training/planning is a good way to end your career/end up in a camp for crimes against the revolution.
Personally, I am not as sanguine about the idea that war isn't about to happen until there a 500,000 strong invasion force on its way - living memory is rammed with examples of wars being launched long before the conditions required for a successful outcome have been met.
China has announced a no-fly zone north of Taiwan, and has - in the last week - talked about stopping and searching vessels, including other Navies, sailing in the Straights of Taiwan.
I wouldn't fall off my chair if, when the history books are written, it's decided that the war has already started.
www.cnn.com
