Labour leadership

[Humberto]

I have no problem with anything he has said but I am starting to think that appointing John McDonnell was a mistake, it really does just give the Tories so much to work with in terms of foreign policy and culture war bullshit.

Tories are getting spanked at the minute.

 

[gosub]

Tories are getting spanked at the minute.

__________C L LD U

13 Aug 38 33 6 15 Con +5

13 Aug 40 29 8 13 Con +11

9 Aug 40 31 7 10 Con +9

26 Jul 40 28 7 10 Con +12

 

[red & green]

Abbot moved to international development - wonder who will get DWP?

 

[Humberto]

13 Aug 38 33 6 15 Con +5

13 Aug 40 29 8 13 Con +11

9 Aug 40 31 7 10 Con +9

26 Jul 40 28 7 10 Con +12

What does that say? I don't know.

 

[gosub]

What does that say? I don't know.

That the party you claim is getting "spanked at the moment" is averaging a 9% lead over the last 4 opinion polls

 

[Humberto]

I'm gonna call fuckwit

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I'm gonna call fuckwit

Ach, no need to be so harsh on yourself. Not everyone can read a badly formatted table.

 

[Humberto]

shit happens

it was a poor effort

 

[DotCommunist]

That the party you claim is getting "spanked at the moment" is averaging a 9% lead over the last 4 opinion polls

those ever reliable polls that told us millipede was in like flynn you mean?

 

[gosub]

those ever reliable polls that told us millipede was in like flynn you mean?

Hmm, coz in the period since Labour weren't popular enough to win an election, all everyone's been talking about is how impressive Labour have been....

 

[DotCommunist]

nope, people have been talking up c-byn. Different to thinking lab has a chance. A leader is not a party.

 

[Humberto]

gosub can't say anything and never bothered before

Nows your time...

 

[Humberto]

wtf? yes

 

[marty21]

Hmm, coz in the period since Labour weren't popular enough to win an election, all everyone's been talking about is how impressive Labour have been....

Any polls since Corbyn was elected?

 

[free spirit]

But the other leadership candidates Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall, as well as Ms Creagh, Tristram Hunt, Rachel Reeves, Chris Leslie, Jamie Reed, Emma Reynolds and Shabana Mahmood said they would not serve in Mr Corbyn's shadow cabinet.

Jeremy Corbyn gives top jobs to John McDonnell and Andy Burnham - BBC News
barely heard of half of these, I doubt they'll be missed.

 

[JHE]

Any polls since Corbyn was elected?

A 'snap poll' by Survation for the Mail: Poll says Labour will lose next two elections

Curiously, either the pollsters didn't ask the standard sort of question (something like Who would you vote for if there were a general election tomorrow?) or the Mail has chosen to omit the result (possibly because it showed no or little change and so doesn't really support the disaster-for-Labour interpretation).

Anyway, here are some results the Mail provides:

 

[DownwardDog]

Tories are already banging on about McDonnell being pro-IRA, question is does anyone give a shit about the IRA anymore even if they believe it?

It's a nuanced appointment. The key thing that stopped Milliband breaking through in important English LAB-CON marginals like Nuneaton was that the Shadow Cabinet was insufficiently pro-IRA.

 

[billy_bob]

A 'snap poll' by Survation for the Mail: Poll says Labour will lose next two elections

Curiously, either the pollsters didn't ask the standard sort of question (something like Who would you vote for if there were a general election tomorrow?) or the Mail has chosen to omit the result (possibly because it showed no or little change and so doesn't really support the disaster-for-Labour interpretation).

I'm struggling to see the disaster-for-Labour narrative even in most of those figures. Over 25% of respondents to a Mail poll think Corbyn would make a better PM than Cameron. And nearly a fifth are more likely to vote Labour since Corbyn's election. Be interesting to see how that compares to the proportion of Mail readers who transferred support (or considered it) to Blair back in 94/5.

And as you say, we don't know how many even less persuasively anti-Corbyn results they chose to lose down the back of the sofa.

 

[Pickman's model]

Labour didn't lose in 1984 because of Michael Foot. That's a myth put about by the Tory press and Nu Labour revisionists. It lost because of the Falklands and Thatcher channelling Churchill. Foot was actually quite popular and Labour was doing well in the polls until the Falklands.

no one lost in 1984 as no election

 

[killer b]

I'm struggling to see the disaster-for-Labour narrative even in most of those figures. Over 25% of respondents to a Mail poll think Corbyn would make a better PM than Cameron. And nearly a fifth are more likely to vote Labour since Corbyn's election. Be interesting to see how that compares to the proportion of Mail readers who transferred support (or considered it) to Blair back in 94/5.

And as you say, we don't know how many even less persuasively anti-Corbyn results they chose to lose down the back of the sofa.

Its a survation poll, so not of mail readers. Either way, the numbers dont look particularly bad to me.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

A 'snap poll' by Survation for the Mail: Poll says Labour will lose next two elections

Curiously, either the pollsters didn't ask the standard sort of question (something like Who would you vote for if there were a general election tomorrow?) or the Mail has chosen to omit the result (possibly because it showed no or little change and so doesn't really support the disaster-for-Labour interpretation).

Anyway, here are some results the Mail provides:

Some weird questions in there. Especially the second one.

 

[billy_bob]

Its a survation poll, so not of mail readers. Either way, the numbers dont look particularly bad to me.

Ok, yes, but there's a reason polls for newspapers tend to bolster that newspaper's editorial line. If those are the cherry-picked most convincing results that the Mail felt were worth publicising from a poll they themselves commissioned, that's quite revealing.

 

[Mr Moose]

It's all to play for. As the public get used to the new figures involved then if the policies and delivery of them are right the polls will shoot up when the Tories cock it up

 

[Sprocket.]

I wonder how today will go in parliament with this debate starting.
Trade Union Bill: Commons to debate government plans - BBC News




How many labour MPs will abstain on this when it comes to a vote?

 

[Rob Ray]

It's all to play for. As the public get used to the new figures involved then if the policies and delivery of them are right the polls will shoot up when the Tories cock it up

I'm actually a bit surprised by how cack-handed the Tories are being atm. Best tactic is to pose as the serious statesmen and dismember his policies while letting the right-wing press off the leash for personal attacks, not drivel about him being a "threat to national security." It just makes them sound panicky.

I suppose it's been a while since they had to deal with someone who didn't just nod along while muttering "but we should look a bit doleful about it."

 

[J Ed]

The commentariat are simultaneously pushing the idea that Corbyn now hates women and Jews on the basis of his appointments or non-appointments, they really are willing to say anything about him.

 

[LDC]

...not drivel about him being a "threat to national security." It just makes them sound panicky.

I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid given the current situation the sad thing is I think that 'national security threat' is going to actually work for quite a significant section of the population.

 

[nino_savatte]

He isn't wrong, you know...

 

[Rob Ray]

I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid given the current situation the sad thing is I think that 'national security threat' is going to actually work for quite a significant section of the population.

Mostly that section is core Tory though, I can't see it making much impact outside them long-term, especially when Corbyn's "new democracy" gives him an out on the pacifist side of things.

 

[Sprocket.]

The commentariat are simultaneously pushing the idea that Corbyn now hates women and Jews on the basis of his appointments or non-appointments, they really are willing to say anything about him.

Apparently he is going to abolish the Army according to the headline on the sun, haven't read article of course and wouldn't post link even if able.