redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
68% of pre-2015 GE members back him
Jeremy Corbyn's time is up
- Thread starter hash tag
- Start date
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
That's interesting, as is Corbyn's massive lead amongst the EU leavers (with the usual qualifications about sample size). I suspect his opponents will find a way of using both of those findings against him. To be honest, they haven't got much else.
Louis MacNeice
Autumn Journalist
Given that the party has trebled in size since then (what with all the entryists, thugs and anti-Semites) no wonder a thoroughly good purge is needed. More seriously, given Smith's policy steals from Corbyn and his attempts at talking left, it seems likely that a sizeable chunk of that 68% is to the left of the majority of the PLP (some of whom must be biting their lips and pulling their hair out at the promises Smith is making).
Cheers - Louis MacNeice
teqniq
DisMembered
Um I'm no psephologist so I'm not too sure what you're talking about here, I just found it mildly surprising (if true) that the stats produced that result. He's been touted I seem to recall as appealing more to younger voters.
Whilst this may be true
(I have no real idea who he is or what he stands for) he doesn't appear to be spinning the stats, just reporting them. Unless of course he's taken them completely out of context.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
what % of total membership is that?
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
The errors on the values will be greater than the 2% difference between 40-59 and 18-23 year-olds, so Easton's conclusion is nonsense. Statistically those number are the same.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Sorry not quite clear what you are asking, what % of the total membership are pre-2015 or what % of the total membership are pre-2015 and OS backers?
Going by the numbers YouGov used the pre-2015 members count for ~48% of members, so 33% of members were members before May 2015 and back OS.
EDIT No idea if those YouGov breaks are correct though.
Also despite his revolting sexism Corbyn is doing better with women than men.
Last edited:
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
which percentage of the total membership are pre-2015. I see you've answerd that, thanks
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
links please.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
I don't think that's quite right is it - 33% of the members entitled to vote are were members before May 2015 and back OS. It'll be lower for total members though as the recent joiners are excluded from that figure.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Yes that's true, as I said I'm just using YouGov's numbers
free spirit
more tea vicar?
because appealing to the 52% of the electorate who voted leave makes him the unelectable one?
You're probably right though, they will attempt to attack him for it and in doing so increase his appeal to that portion of the electorate.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
its already been said that he didn't campaign hard enough for remain. I thought his speech, against his own personal convictions on the matter, was fair enough. What did tey want, a battlebus tour or some shit
free spirit
more tea vicar?
I know, but that's different to objecting to the fact that he now has strong personal support from those who voted leave. That's 52% of the electorate, so it's be pretty hard for anyone to win an election without having some level of appeal to that portion of the electorate.
Personally I think Corbyn judged his remain campaigning extremely well politically with an eye to the next election rather than just to winning the referendum at the cost of being seen standing on the same platform as the tories making the same case as them, as happened in the scottish referendum immediately prior to labour being wiped out in Scotland by the SNP. These figures showing his support among leave voters would seem to vindicate that approach to me, hopefully they can be replicated to some degree among UKIP supporters.
ska invita
back on the other side
these poll results seem to have disappeared totally from the guardian website
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
Those inclined to kipperdom won't be lapping up his views on immigration.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
you are mixing up labour members/supporters who voted leave with the part of the general population that voted leave.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
To clarify, this was just a poll of Labour supporters, yes?
If so, the support for JC among Labour supporters who voted leave is not surprising. Said Labour supporters voting leave are a minority of Labour supporters, including, no doubt, a sizeable number quite a bit to the left of the average Labour supporter polled, the believers in 'Lexit'.
If so, the support for JC among Labour supporters who voted leave is not surprising. Said Labour supporters voting leave are a minority of Labour supporters, including, no doubt, a sizeable number quite a bit to the left of the average Labour supporter polled, the believers in 'Lexit'.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
that's what i said.
FS misreading polling data because he thinks it supports his position? How surprising.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
I know it was just the labour side of the leave vote, but do you not think it's likely to be indicative to some extent of the level of support for either candidate among the wider leave voting electorate?
that'd be the bit that should have made it obvious that I was well aware it wasn't a poll of the entire population.
Last edited:
free spirit
more tea vicar?
discokermit
Well-Known Member
i'm just pointing out your error. it's not an inconsequential slip of the tongue. start again and show all your working out.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I don't really. The 'leave' vote wasn't just one thing - it was made up of various sub-groups with entirely different motivations, hopes and desires. Most tory voters voted leave, but it wouldn't surprise me if tory voters who voted remain held in general more favourable opinions of JC.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
It's a common enough form of analysis to extrapolate a result from one section of the population and discuss the likelihood that it also applies to some extent to another section of the population who held similar views on the key issue in question.
I didn't mean to indicate that the support shown in the poll from the labour leave side would automatically transfer completely across to the entire 52% who voted leave, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a preference for corbyn vs smith from those on the leave side more generally on the specific issue of the EU referendum.
Those figures for labour supporters though do directly tie in with the Scottish referendum and subsequent labour annihilation though, as in that case Labour lost the support of it's former supporters who'd voted for independence largely because of the way it had been seen to campaign. This poll does fairly clearly indicate that Corbyn is likely to be best placed to retain the leave section of the labour support base and stop it from losing those swathes of the historically labour supporting country that voted leave in the same way it did in scotland. (If UKIP were to really take the fight to Labour in those areas rather than imploding).
Similar threads
