Is it too late?

[frogwoman]

The fact that we've been experiencing temperatures that were only predicted for 2040 makes me wonder if it's too late to do anything about it? Not that it shouldn't be stopped from getting worse, I'm not arguing that. Just feeling depressed about everything.

 

[JimW]

Feels that way. Good news is partial and all sorts of iceberg size disasters are bearing down, no real will to address it and blindness to the need for fundamental systemic change.

 

[Pickman's model]

The fact that we've been experiencing temperatures that were only predicted for 2040 makes me wonder if it's too late to do anything about it? Not that it shouldn't be stopped from getting worse, I'm not arguing that. Just feeling depressed about everything.

I think it is but that doesn't mean nothing should be done. Like if you're crashing a car you'd try to steer it away from a cliff or tree, to minimise your injuries.

The problem is I think we've passed the tipping point where we're masters of our own destiny, where human action can halt emissions. The melting permafrost and methane bubbling out of the Arctic seas suggests to me the even if we stopped our emissions there are a load we cannot deal with. And when the Arctic methane hydrates beneath the sea melt, well, the stars will be right and r'lyeh and great cthulhu will arise to scour the earth

 

[A380]

If you want to try and avoid despair about the climate emergency, if only so as to be able to keep trying to do something, read this novel.

 

[campanula]

There will be no significant attempts to limit environmental catastrophe until enough private property has been damaged. Not property owned or used by the impoverished global south of course...but when we have massive flooding as the Thames barrier collapses, there might be something on offer apart from the daily game of handwringo. The solutions are unpalatable to everyone who has gotten used to driving around, flying off on holiday and expecting energy at the flick of a switch.

 

[LDC]

The fact that we've been experiencing temperatures that were only predicted for 2040 makes me wonder if it's too late to do anything about it? Not that it shouldn't be stopped from getting worse, I'm not arguing that. Just feeling depressed about everything.

I don't have a good grip on the specific science with it all, but my understanding is yes and no. Yes it's too late to stop some pretty terrible things happening, but no, it's not too late to stop more terrible things, and so there's stuff worth fighting for now. But I get your depression with it, it does seem it's all happening faster than the predictions said. I find the wildfires just horrendous to read about and watch, more than other stuff. Maybe it's the loss of habitat and animals, and the personal loss of homes that get me, feels much more 'real' than some of the other things we hear about.

I think the next decades are going to be very grim for many more people than before (of course they are for plenty already) on a number of fronts. The positive side is I think this will open up possibilities for dramatic and far reaching change - hopefully for the better, but how that will pan out in reality will be complex.

I think in some of Europe we'll be OK, although in central Europe it's more than possible the current Ukraine war will expand geographically, and Southern Spain, Italy and Greece etc. will become largely uninhabitable in some of the rural and water resource poor areas. I think the US will break apart, if not in name then practically. Anyway, you get the picture!

 

[LDC]

If you want to try and avoid despair about the climate emergency, if only so as to be able to keep trying to do something, read this novel.

View attachment 334208

Mixed though, there's some hope in that book, but on the background of widespread death and destruction happening first!

 

[Pickman's model]

There will be no significant attempts to limit environmental catastrophe until enough private property has been damaged. Not property owned or used by the impoverished global south of course...but when we have massive flooding as the Thames barrier collapses, there might be something on offer apart from the daily game of handwringo. The solutions are unpalatable to everyone who has gotten used to driving around, flying off on holiday and expecting energy at the flick of a switch.

Didn't work with the flooding of new york

 

[LDC]

The solutions are unpalatable to everyone who has gotten used to driving around, flying off on holiday and expecting energy at the flick of a switch.

Some argue for a 'green authoritarianism', which I think is entirely within the realms of happening if things get bad quickly. There does need to be a massive shift in culture, but it's very hard to imagine that happening without it being catalyzed by some widespread disasters like crop failures, death, huge fires, etc.

Some of that is my argument for making personal changes like stopping/cutting back on flying, eating less meat, etc. It's less about the actual impact on emissions and more about normalizing something and trying to make it more common and palatable for people.

I do agree with you, I think the state and capital will delay until the last possible moment, by which point all that will be left as an option is some horrendous scarcity and authoritarian response.

It's not brilliant but I think this book is a pretty interesting read on the options facing us Verso

This review basically covers it Four Futures: Life After Capitalism review – will robots bring utopia or terror?

 

[A380]

Mixed though, there's some hope in that book, but on the background of widespread death and destruction happening first!

Indeed, I think one of the points Robinson was trying to make is that it will take some kind of catastrophe for the world to take this seriously.

Spoiler

The first chapter is one of the bleakest pieces of fiction I have read, but the rest of the book isn't. It's more of. polemic than a true novel, although, like a lot of Robinson's work a main story line is barely alluded to and you have to fill it in yourself - see also Red Moon. [Spolier]

 

[Elpenor]

I equate my own efforts to trying to remove a small splinter from a foot that is due to be amputated shortly - well meaning but fundamentally pointless.

I still do them though if only for my own sanity

 

[LDC]

Yeah I don't read novels much, and definitely not sci-fi (although this is called cli-fi isn't it!?) but really 'enjoyed' that one. Yes, brutal opening chapter.

 

[LDC]

In case anyone is interested, there's this article on climate change some of us are reading and discussing this coming week Reading Group - Angry Workers

Revolutionary Strategy in a Warming World (Malm, 2016)

How can climate justice activists stop capitalism’s drive to catastrophe? The author of Fossil Capital considers lessons from past revolutions and proposes an action program for today. Andreas Malm…

cominsitu.wordpress.com

There's this 'Disaster and dilemma' by Kosmoprolet that covers some of the possibilities of an authoritarian response to climate crisis Desaster und Dilemma - Reflexionen über ökologische Katastrophe und Klimabewegung | Kosmoprolet

Have attached a translation here.

 

[weltweit]

As regards stopping putting more greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere no we are not too late, but as has been mentioned quite a lot of damage has and is still being done.

There are some crazy ideas, like putting a sun shade into lower earth orbit to reduce the amount of sun that gets through. In the realm of crazy at the moment as is the idea of taking CO2 out of the atmosphere by scrubbing the very air although as technology develops this may prove viable.

I think we need more countries leading by example, proving that one can profitably achieve zero emissions and then offering any resulting technology to other emitters in the hope they will follow.

For the UK I am encouraged by offshore floating wind and solar, and RR's development of small modular reactors, also larger nuclear schemes but it has been calculated that we are way behind on an annual basis replacing dirty energy with clean and if we don't get a move on the whole project will be put into question.

 

[Orang Utan]

I vacillate between despair and fatalistic acceptance that this is how it goes. We are just the most successful organism on the planet and this is where such success leads us.

 

[bimble]

I was just thinking about this. Truth is that right now is the first time I’ve ever personally felt frightened of the consequences, not for the future or other people but for my own life & safety. I live in a forest which thousands of people go to to walk and also to hang out making barbecues and everything all around me is so parched, strawlike, even the trees are brittle and yellowing now, and the national trust who owns the place put up signs the other day (never seen them before) saying high risk of fire no bbqs. It’s not something I’ve ever thought of as remotely likely before but yeah, just a bit scary. Not as scary as crop failure obvs.

 

[stavros]

I strongly suspect we are fucked, but it's not certain yet how quickly and how hard we will be fucked. I conceivably have another 30-40 years on this planet, so I may well see worse than the majority that frequent these boards.

 

[MC SUPERRAVI]

mate. this is the end of white privilege. even the rich people have been living in shitholes forever.
are humans going to be wiped out? no
is Europe going to be like China? yes
it's only scary for the top 5%. it's normal for the rest of the world. it sucked being in the capital of the empire anyway. life is going to be hot and shitty,
once the old people in charge die there will be a better hope. it's been the same people in charge for 30 years. age of aquarius is over, pisces is coming in hot. dolphins baby

 

[A380]

I strongly suspect we are fucked, but it's not certain yet how quickly and how hard we will be fucked. I conceivably have another 30-40 years on this planet, so I may well see worse than the majority that frequent these boards.

So long enough for our grandchildren to put you on trial in the remains of Wembley Stadium then…

 

[A380]

mate. this is the end of white privilege. even the rich people have been living in shitholes forever.
are humans going to be wiped out? no
is Europe going to be like China? yes
it's only scary for the top 5%. it's normal for the rest of the world. it sucked being in the capital of the empire anyway. life is going to be hot and shitty,
once the old people in charge die there will be a better hope. it's been the same people in charge for 30 years. age of aquarius is over, pisces is coming in hot. dolphins baby

Was about to respond highlighting the abject bollocks of this post. Then saw you poll thread so no longer need to bother…

 

[stavros]

So long enough for our grandchildren to put you on trial in the remains of Wembley Stadium then…

They're building the facilities already.

 

[Humberto]

Whilst politicians seem more interested in cancelling our rights and freedoms and undermining democracy, it's difficult to see that we have a fighting chance of avoiding the worst case scenarios. It seems we are just drifting into it whilst the ruling class gorge themselves on what remains as long as they can. I'm not quite despondent but something will have to change, and the ruling class seem to be getting away with blocking that change and causing chaos to suit their greedy aims.

 

[MC SUPERRAVI]

Was about to respond highlighting the abject bollocks of this post. Then saw you poll thread so no longer need to bother…

spot the middle class white person

 

[Sasaferrato]

As regards stopping putting more greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere no we are not too late, but as has been mentioned quite a lot of damage has and is still being done.

There are some crazy ideas, like putting a sun shade into lower earth orbit to reduce the amount of sun that gets through. In the realm of crazy at the moment as is the idea of taking CO2 out of the atmosphere by scrubbing the very air although as technology develops this may prove viable.

I think we need more countries leading by example, proving that one can profitably achieve zero emissions and then offering any resulting technology to other emitters in the hope they will follow.

For the UK I am encouraged by offshore floating wind and solar, and RR's development of small modular reactors, also larger nuclear schemes but it has been calculated that we are way behind on an annual basis replacing dirty energy with clean and if we don't get a move on the whole project will be put into question.

A nuclear sub power plant puts out about 200MW, which presumably is what the RR power units are.

It took a couple of centuries to get to where we are, and it is going to take decades to even partially sort it. I think we need to learn to live with the consequences in the meantime.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I strongly suspect we are fucked, but it's not certain yet how quickly and how hard we will be fucked. I conceivably have another 30-40 years on this planet, so I may well see worse than the majority that frequent these boards.

I have probably half of that, but still expect to see things worsen considerably.

 

[A380]

spot the middle class white person

Bit fish in a barrel on here TBF.

But even I was still proper working class I'd have still identified you as a returner twat...

 

[bcuster]

The entire northern hemisphere is under the broiler right now. It’ll’ve been in the low 40’s in Utqiaqvik today…

 

[yield]

The fact that we've been experiencing temperatures that were only predicted for 2040 makes me wonder if it's too late to do anything about it?

Do these heat waves mean climate change is happening faster than expected?
July 21, 2022

Millions of people are now experiencing the effects of climate change firsthand. Blistering heat waves have smashed temperature records around the globe this summer, scorching crops, knocking out power, fueling wildfires, buckling roads and runways, and likely killing thousands across Europe alone.

The dizzyingly quick shift from an abstract threat to an era of tumbling temperature records, megadroughts, and pervasive fires has many people wondering: is climate change unfolding faster than scientists had expected? Are these extreme events more extreme than studies had predicted they would be, given the levels of greenhouse gases now in the atmosphere?

As it happens, those are two distinct questions, with different and nuanced answers.

For the most part, the computer models used to simulate how the planet responds to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere aren’t wildly off the mark, especially considering that they aren’t geared for predicting regional temperature extremes. But the recent pileup of very hot heat waves does have some scientists wondering whether models could be underestimating the frequency and intensity of such events, whether some factors are playing more significant roles than represented in certain models, and what it all may mean for our climate conditions in the coming decades.

Not that it shouldn't be stopped from getting worse, I'm not arguing that. Just feeling depressed about everything.

It's never too late. The ruling class will not freely give up their titles and privileges.

"The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying, and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid diseases appear." - Antonio Gramsci

 

[frogwoman]

I don’t see revolution happening in my lifetime though and past experience suggests that it just creates a new 'ruling class', let alone do anything for the environment. It's hard not to be fatalistic. I feel very down tbh

 

[frogwoman]

In the mean time I think far from the ruling class's rights and privileges being threatened attacks on abortion, gay marriage and even things like the minimum wage and right to strike are not far away.