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Yeah, I think there is a fair bit of talking at cross-purposes here, I think that there are some arguments for trans acceptance/inclusion that rely on essentialist arguments about identity being "innate" (whatever that means), but equally there are other ones that don't, I still think "Falling star" article from the Leeds lot is probably the best relatively simple, accessible introduction to an anti-essentialist trans position I've seen:
Ultimately, none of us can know the answer to any of these questions for sure - going back to the original question, none of us have ever lived in a society without homophobia, so we can't know what homosexual identity would look like in such a society, if it did exist. Likewise, on the gender identity question, I think we can say pretty confidently that it's not 100% social/nurture, otherwise the number of trans people would be 0; but if we imagine a society that didn't routinely assign gender roles to babies at birth*, I don't know what gender identities might look like in that society, other than that I suppose there wouldn't really be a cis/trans distinction, because no-one would have an assigned birth gender to start from. But I don't think we'll be in that society any time soon, sadly.
*which is, I suppose, a society that both a lot of trans people and a lot of radfem types could agree would be desirable.
Falling star: Countering gender essentialism with sex essentialism
Red and Black Leeds on the limitations of both gender essentialism and sex essentialism as a way to understand gender expression and identity.
libcom.org
Ultimately, none of us can know the answer to any of these questions for sure - going back to the original question, none of us have ever lived in a society without homophobia, so we can't know what homosexual identity would look like in such a society, if it did exist. Likewise, on the gender identity question, I think we can say pretty confidently that it's not 100% social/nurture, otherwise the number of trans people would be 0; but if we imagine a society that didn't routinely assign gender roles to babies at birth*, I don't know what gender identities might look like in that society, other than that I suppose there wouldn't really be a cis/trans distinction, because no-one would have an assigned birth gender to start from. But I don't think we'll be in that society any time soon, sadly.
*which is, I suppose, a society that both a lot of trans people and a lot of radfem types could agree would be desirable.
I think that your attempt to do identity politics here are a bit complicated by what anti-trans activism actually looks like in practice. If we look at, say, Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull's "Let Women Speak" event in Melbourne, is it awkward for straight men to oppose that?A comparison with black people being racist would be stronger and more telling.
It can be awkward for white people to argue the toss over hierarchies of racism with black people who think, for instance, that anti-semitism is not racist.
Similarly, it demands a lot of bullishness for straight men to take issue with gays who feel that adolescent trans over-recognition erases gay identity, or for that matter with female gender-critical feminists.