Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[redsquirrel]

What position will Corbyn take then? Support the deal he's publicly slated? Or campaign for Remain?

I think ska's right on this one, it's about internal LP politics. I don't think the numbers are there. There are will be more Labour MPs that vote against a 2nd referendum than Tory MPs that vote for one.

But the LP can claim both that it backed a 2nd ref and tried to get it's version of leave through.

 

[butchersapron]

It would be May's deal vs Remain

Or labour's leave vs theirs.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think ska's right on this one, it's about internal LP politics. I don't think the numbers are there. There are will be more Labour MPs that vote against a 2nd referendum than Tory MPs that vote for one.

ska invita may well be right, I have no idea, I'm still raging to be honest. Certainly haven't done the maths to know if it could pass!

But all the same, even if it's just to shut up Watson and Lammy, why do it? Will Corbyn now whip Labour MP's in Leave constituencies to vote for it? Or is Labour supporting it but giving a free vote? How does this help him, honestly?

The only reason I can think of for doing this is that if it fails, he can say "oh well we tried the second referendum thing". But even then he's agreed to it as an option.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Or labour's leave vs theirs.

Maybe. But which seems more likely to you?

 

[gentlegreen]

Like the input from Syrzia?
And UK socialism has been opposed to the EU for 50 years.

Which is a key reason why I used to have to vote Lib(dem)

 

[killer b]

Or labour's leave vs theirs.

I don't see how that would work. This is a genuine move to supporting a second in /out referendum IMO. One which allows them to say to what remaining Labour leave voters there are 'we supported the only possible deal that could pass parliament' and to remainers 'we supported a second vote'.

 

[killer b]

How convincing this would be to either camp I dunno.

 

[redsquirrel]

ska invita But all the same, even if it's just to shut up Watson and Lammy, why do it? Will Corbyn now whip Labour MP's in Leave constituencies to vote for it? Or is Labour supporting it but giving a free vote? How does this help him, honestly?

If it does get voted on I think it will be officially whipped - but in practice the whips won't push too hard.

 

[SpackleFrog]

How convincing this would be to either camp I dunno.

It'll reek of bullshit to all concerned if you're right I'm guessing. Guarantees a Remain vote, surely? Think even the ERG have said they would prefer Remain to May's deal.

 

[Santino]

I've heard more people running out their doors last 5 minutes shouting YES! than when she died.

Workers across the nation downed tools and lined the streets in a spontaneous demonstration of support for the announcement.

 

[butchersapron]

Maybe. But which seems more likely to you?

The former to be honest. I just can't see the basic political madness of them ever supporting a leave-stay vote. Even this formulation of a public vote seems designed to avoid it.

 

[butchersapron]

I don't see how that would work. This is a genuine move to supporting a second in /out referendum IMO. One which allows them to say to what remaining Labour leave voters there are 'we supported the only possible deal that could pass parliament' and to remainers 'we supported a second vote'.

They don't have the numbers to do it. It's cynical and maybe intended to look like what you outline. And, it's far far too late.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The former to be honest. I just can't see the basic political madness of them ever supporting a leave-stay vote. Even this formulation of a public vote seems designed to avoid it.

That's the problem though isn't it? It's a leave on May's terms/stay vote. Which can only produce a stay result.

 

[killer b]

They don't have the numbers to do it. It's cynical and maybe intended to look like what you outline. And, it's far far too late.

Oh, I can't see it passing.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Oh, I can't see it passing.

I hope not.

 

[butchersapron]

That's the problem though isn't it? It's a leave on May's terms/stay vote. Which can only produce a stay result.

Or no deal. There is yet, no vote available to remain. The EU will of course prove nice over the next few weeks.

Corbyn teaming up with the EU monsters is not an appealing look.

 

[elbows]

I am ready for pondering far more slippery antics over the next month. Can be a bit draining though so I might wait till all Wednesdays voting is done before trying to think about it properly.

 

[butchersapron]

Oh, I can't see it passing.

So all positioning and signalling basically. Which, i think means it was never a firm commitment to push for it as a desired outcome rather than nailing down some doors and doing some PR.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Or no deal. There is yet, no vote available to remain. The EU will of course prove nice over the next few weeks.

Corbyn teaming up with the EU monsters is not an appealing look.

Agree it's an awful look. Think we can be certain no deal will not be on any ballot paper ever.

 

[elbows]

So all positioning and signalling basically. Which, i think means it was never a firm commitment to push for it as a desired outcome rather than nailing down some doors and doing some PR.

Had cake, ate it, regurgitated much of it, smeared it in some sensitive places.

 

[killer b]

this is on the briefing note given to the PLP apparently

 

[redsquirrel]

They don't have the numbers to do it. It's cynical and maybe intended to look like what you outline. And, it's far far too late.

Hmm I can see it helping shore up some support from the wet remain crew (see the two mugs on the last couple of pages) in the short term. Though I can't see it working medium, let alone, long term.

EDIT: see the post after this one for another example.

 

[sleaterkinney]

That's the problem though isn't it? It's a leave on May's terms/stay vote. Which can only produce a stay result.

It's not a problem, it's a solution.

 

[killer b]

It's not a problem, it's a solution.

not being able to see this is a problem is... a problem.

 

[killer b]

(fwiw though I don't even think it's true. I reckon May's deal - against remain - would have a very good chance of winning a referendum)

 

[sleaterkinney]

not being able to see this is a problem is... a problem.

As is Leave, as is Leave on May's deal.

 

[butchersapron]

So we note credible. And we note that is would - banally - have to be be agreed on by parliament. Now, does this mean the eu-leave via may is non-credible? Of course it does. In which case their own leave-eu may be credible but not passable - but still their favoured supportable option. Remain just hanging there. And nowhere does that say support it.

 

[butchersapron]

I think they sold a lot of people on this when nothing has changed.

 

[agricola]

Oh, I can't see it passing.

I can. This (if it is the proposal from Kyle and Wilson) is the only way the Commons ever passes May's deal, without going down the route of running down the clock and voting for it instead of no deal. It also allows most MPs to say "we couldn't decide this, so its back to you" and thereby avoid responsibility.

 

[elbows]

ska invita may well be right, I have no idea, I'm still raging to be honest. Certainly haven't done the maths to know if it could pass!

But all the same, even if it's just to shut up Watson and Lammy, why do it? Will Corbyn now whip Labour MP's in Leave constituencies to vote for it? Or is Labour supporting it but giving a free vote? How does this help him, honestly?

The only reason I can think of for doing this is that if it fails, he can say "oh well we tried the second referendum thing". But even then he's agreed to it as an option.

I suppose my alternative thought on this is, would be whether I should at least consider the idea that this announcement could have other objectives involving influencing one of more of the votes in parliament on Wednesday in ways that I am in no position to identify right now.