Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Bahnhof Strasse]

My son has literally just renewed his with the new one arriving this week it is still burgundy with European Union stamped on the front, whether this is because Brexit is still a month off or they just using up old stock before they open the box of blue ones, I couldn't tell you.

They will say EU until we leave, then stay burgundy with no EU on until the autumn, supposedly.

 

[BobDavis]

The European Union will be on the passports issued until March 29 then it will be omitted. That was the plan anyway. If we don’t leave I suppose it will stay on even when the blue ones come out in Sept. They can stay blue even if we don’t leave so cake & eat it.

 

[sleaterkinney]

They will say EU until we leave, then stay burgundy with no EU on until the autumn, supposedly.

Are you waiting for a blue one?

 

[Yossarian]

There might be a delay if they're still planning to print the blue passports in France.

 

[Sprocket.]

The weekly meaningful vote - it's almost like taking the bins out!

And no one turning up to empty them.

 

[Pickman's model]

And no one turning up to empty them.

And people chucking all manner of things in them

 

[Sprocket.]

And people chucking all manner of things in them

Namely, Chuka?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Are you waiting for a blue one?

Mine's got another six years left on it, BB1's expires in August but I think will need to be renewed before then as she's off to Bavaria with her band in May.

Really dunno what the fuss is all about, it's a travel document.

 

[Pickman's model]

Namely, Chuka?

Maybe

 

[Supine]

I found my super old passport in a drawer recently. Pretty sure it was black rather than blue!

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I found my super old passport in a drawer recently. Pretty sure it was black rather than blue!

Navy blue, like old bill's outfit.

 

[Gerry1time]

Mrs May has convinced herself that as prime minister she has to leave some form of legacy. This has, in my opinion become obsessive and all encompassing of her tenure at number ten. It is saddening to see someone so blinkered to her inability to provide the solution. Her stubbornness makes her look foolish and arrogant.

I don't think it's that. I think it's that she is an ardent believer in the Conservative Party, and as such cannot be the leader that allowed it to split. Ever. So when the ERG have come to her and said 'do as we say or we split the party / the grass roots party is on our side', she's done as they said. The problem is of course that this schism has been running in the party for at least 30 years, and is now being forced to a head. So there's probably no way she can avoid a split. It's all too late. On the other side, Europe see the folly of her stance, and have thus given her a pretty crap deal on a 'take it or leave it basis'. But she can't leave it, as that might split the party, either through no deal or no brexit, so all she's left with is taking it.

Which is why her plan for a long time now has been to just run down the clock, force the country to a cliff edge, then say it's either my deal or the chaos of no deal (that the ERG would quite like). Hence today's announcement of a delay in the meaningful vote right up to the 11th hour, ostensibly for further negotiations. A stance which is becoming increasingly surreal, given the european negotiators have been saying for ages that there is no renegotiation to be had.

They know full well what her personal mission is, and how it's ruining her and her party, and thus see no reason to renegotiate. The sad irony is that the tory party probably is going to split over this anyway, or at least be no more united than it's been for a while now, so her only hope of not being the leader that presided over a party split is not to be the leader when it happens. But she's also not the sort to give up. The perfect storm of poorly suited character traits.

Basically, she's entirely the wrong person for the job, but when the post-brexit leadership election happened, everyone tried to dive out of the way of having to lead the brexit process, leaving her the only person foolish enough to still be standing. I've always thought that she's one of those types very common from Oxbridge, academically brilliant in certain fields, but crushingly bad at life in general.

 

[Sprocket.]

Good post Gerry1time .

 

[SpackleFrog]

The sad irony is that the tory party probably is going to split over this anyway, or at least be no more united than it's been for a while now, so her only hope of not being the leader that presided over a party split is not to be the leader when it happens. But she's also not the sort to give up. The perfect storm of poorly suited character traits.

Good post but nothing sad about it

 

[gosub]

Personally I think a 2nd referendum would be a disaster but worth a read Polls show Brexit regret is so strong that 'Remain' would win a second referendum by 9 points

 

[mauvais]

I think Gerry's post follows the common habit of forgetting that the EU 'negotiations' were on rails and thus about as negotiable as negotiating with a train. The Tories have also managed to keep on flying for those 30 years despite fundamental internal differences and if your answer to 'why' is only, 'because there wasn't a referendum', then you have to explain why that has materially changed matters. The problem for all Brexit factions, now and always, is that there's no critical mass for any particular thing. If the threat of an external split of the party is actually real then what would it look like and who would it benefit?

 

[Gerry1time]

Good post but nothing sad about it

Hah, fair point I was more thinking a sad irony for her. Regardless of her politics, at a fundamental level she's still a fellow human being on this planet, and there is always a sadness watching someone destroy themselves so utterly (those bags under her eyes these days...) for a cause that is both pointless and utterly doomed to failure. I just want someone to tell her to resign, and go to bed for a bit.

 

[MickiQ]

My son has literally just renewed his with the new one arriving this week it is still burgundy with European Union stamped on the front, whether this is because Brexit is still a month off or they just using up old stock before they open the box of blue ones, I couldn't tell you.

Since the new blue ones are going to be printed in France it would be the very definition of irony if they were impounded at the border in Calais in the event of a No-Deal Brexit

 

[Supine]

Nah. Fuck her and the racist ship she sails.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Hah, fair point I was more thinking a sad irony for her. Regardless of her politics, at a fundamental level she's still a fellow human being on this planet, and there is always a sadness watching someone destroy themselves so utterly (those bags under her eyes these days...) for a cause that is both pointless and utterly doomed to failure. I just want someone to tell her to resign, and go to bed for a bit.

The best thing about this is watching Tories suffer but go you with your empathy man

 

[Gerry1time]

I think Gerry's post follows the common habit of forgetting that the EU 'negotiations' were on rails and thus about as negotiable as negotiating with a train.

Possibly, thought I do suspect they were more open to conversation than we allowed them to be with our early 'red lines'. We set some rails ourselves tbf.

The Tories have also managed to keep on flying for those 30 years despite fundamental internal differences and if your answer to 'why' is only, 'because there wasn't a referendum', then you have to explain why that has materially changed matters.

Kept existing yes, but when did they last win a sizable / secure parliamentary majority? About 30 years ago...

The problem for all Brexit factions, now and always, is that there's no critical mass for any particular thing. If the threat of an external split of the party is actually real then what would it look like and who would it benefit?

There is that, but it's the tories that brought this into the national debate and kept it there for so long, either by promoting it or being terrified of it. As for what the split would look like, who knows? Isn't that the point of a split? That it's a recasting of the dice, that can and does land in all sorts of unexpected ways.

 

[Gerry1time]

The best thing about this is watching Tories suffer but go you with your empathy man

What can I say, I'm a zen buddhist

 

[SpackleFrog]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Even if PM now won’t do “meaningful vote” on a Deal, she still promised to lay an amendable motion this week. We will push cross party amendment this week paving way for our Bill to safeguard against No Deal. PM remarks make it even more vital Commons votes for Bill <a href="News about #NotoNoDeal on Twitter">#NotoNoDeal</a> <a href="Yvette Cooper on Twitter">pic.twitter.com/jCcm3kh8T9</a></p>&mdash; Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) <a href="">February 24, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Yvette Cooper seems to think she can table an amendment this week to force May to seek an extension to A50 in the event of no deal agreed by March 13th. Cunningly the length of the extension is not specified.

 

[two sheds]

What can I say, I'm a zen buddhist

Hit her with a large stick if she loses concentration eh?

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think Gerry's post follows the common habit of forgetting that the EU 'negotiations' were on rails and thus about as negotiable as negotiating with a train. The Tories have also managed to keep on flying for those 30 years despite fundamental internal differences and if your answer to 'why' is only, 'because there wasn't a referendum', then you have to explain why that has materially changed matters. The problem for all Brexit factions, now and always, is that there's no critical mass for any particular thing. If the threat of an external split of the party is actually real then what would it look like and who would it benefit?

There's no critical mass for the Tory party. Dwindling membership, toxic brand, ageing voters, deeply unpopular with almost all Remain voters and most Leave voters, no longer seen as the responsible party of capital, and no clear sign of how they can ever win a majority at an election.

Seriously, I can't think of when the last time the Tories were in this kind of crisis would be. They are the oldest political representatives of capitalism on the planet but nothing lasts forever.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Navy blue, like old bill's outfit.

Like a priest's sock.

 

[Gerry1time]

Hit her with a large stick if she loses concentration eh?

Zen has mellowed somewhat on its trip from japan to west coast america then over to europe. I've never seen the stick used in the UK, and some of the french zen community continue to see wine as an integral part of their practice.

 

[William of Walworth]

Personally I think a 2nd referendum would be a disaster but worth a read Polls show Brexit regret is so strong that 'Remain' would win a second referendum by 9 points

Also, a pretty good technical analysis of 2nd ref voting possibilities from Andrew Cooper of Populus here (and yes, I know the Tory connections ).
That's from Friday's "The Remaining Standard"

I'm ultra-sceptical of focus groups and how they work, and also I have huge doubts about confirmation bias with questioning in all focus groups or polls.

He does make some useful points though, IMO. Worth a read so long as you challenge parts of what he says. Can others on Urban please attempt that?

 

[Supine]

There's no critical mass for the Tory party. Dwindling membership, toxic brand, ageing voters, deeply unpopular with almost all Remain voters and most Leave voters, no longer seen as the responsible party of capital, and no clear sign of how they can ever win a majority at an election.

Seriously, I can't think of when the last time the Tories were in this kind of crisis would be. They are the oldest political representatives of capitalism on the planet but nothing lasts forever.

But still ahead in the polls...

 

[William of Walworth]

PS after my post #24141 above : I also think a second referendum would be an utter nightmare for any half-sensible/semi-realistic Remain-minded person like me. I am now thinking though, that chances of it happening are becoming stronger