Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[littlebabyjesus]

I know (and I wouldn't be surprised if it was bluff), but the point of the original post was that without the historical accident of Corbyn getting on the ballot, the situation would be radically different

Do you think if someone other than Corbyn had been elected leader, that Labour might not be positioning themselves as the anti Brexit party right now?

I would think only if they had prepared the ground previously, either by not supporting the referendum in the first place or by not supporting triggering A50 when it happened, or both. Having actively supported both things, they're now in a bind that goes far further than Corbyn.

 

[killer b]

I know (and I wouldn't be surprised if it was bluff), but the point of the original post was that without the historical accident of Corbyn getting on the ballot, the situation would be radically different

Do you think if someone other than Corbyn had been elected leader, that Labour might not be positioning themselves as the anti Brexit party right now?

Not really, no - the electoral forces in play now would still (more or less) be in play. If Mary Creagh had somehow won perhaps? Or if Owen Smith had won when he challenged Corbyn? Otherwise it's triangulation all the way, and what they'd have to triangulate would be the same.

 

[CRI]

Has anyone noticed that HM Government is vomiting out Brexit related "notices" onto their website at lightning speed about everything from changes to Company Registration to Brit residents needing health insurance to travel to Ireland. They're not exactly shouting about it, or drawing attention of the people who need to know this stuff. It's just to cover their asses later so they can say, "Well, we issued guidance on that. Not our fault you didn't see it."

Looks like companies in the EU that sell to the UK will have to register with HMRC, and pay Import VAT on parcels under £135 in value. Some might go though that palaver, and of course pass the additional cost on to their British customers, but I suspect quite a few won't bother and will just shut down their shops to UK customers.

 

[andysays]

This amused me earlier

Brexit 'monster' urges Dutch to prepare

The Dutch government sees Brexit not as the elephant in the room but as a giant Muppet-style monster lying on a desk. That is the picture tweeted by Foreign Minister Stef Blok, with the warning: "make sure Brexit doesn't sit - or lie - in your way". There is a link to an official website where Dutch firms can see the potential impact of Brexit on their business.

The Netherlands is among the UK's top trading partners, and Dutch officials say Brexit could deliver a major blow. There is much speculation that the UK could leave the EU without a deal on 29 March - seen by many as the worst-case scenario.

 

[andysays]

PM defeated over Brexit strategy

PM Theresa May suffers a fresh defeat in Commons vote on her Brexit strategy by 303 to 258

 

[Crispy]

303 to 258 That's the toothless Motion right? Not any of the ammendments.

 

[andysays]

303 to 258 That's the toothless Motion right? Not any of the ammendments.

Yeah, that's the government motion

 

[Puddy_Tat]

This amused me earlier

Brexit 'monster' urges Dutch to prepare

i thought that was the new minister for brexit

 

[agricola]

303 to 258 That's the toothless Motion right? Not any of the ammendments.

it was only 266 - 258 once the mould had been scraped off

 

[SpackleFrog]

Not really, no - the electoral forces in play now would still (more or less) be in play. If Mary Creagh had somehow won perhaps? Or if Owen Smith had won when he challenged Corbyn? Otherwise it's triangulation all the way, and what they'd have to triangulate would be the same.

Fair enough. I'm not convinced - I think they'd see lib dem and pro-EU Tory voters as there to be won etc. Because of their logic of triangulation.

 

[agricola]

that mould must be a powerful hallucinogen:

No 10 says accuses Labour of putting party interests ahead of national interest

Downing Street has released this statement about the result. A spokesman said:


Jeremy Corbyn yet again put partisan considerations ahead of the national interest – and yet again, by voting against the government’s motion, he is in effect voting to make no deal more likely.

While we didn’t secure the support of the Commons this evening, the prime minister continues to believe, and the debate itself indicated, that far from objecting to securing changes to the backstop that will allow us to leave with a deal, there was a concern from some Conservative colleagues about taking no deal off the table at this stage.

The motion on 29 January remains the only one the House of Commons has passed expressing what it does want – and that is legally binding changes to address concerns about the backstop. The government will continue to pursue this with the EU to ensure we leave on time on 29 March.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Looks like companies in the EU that sell to the UK will have to register with HMRC, and pay Import VAT on parcels under £135 in value. Some might go though that palaver, and of course pass the additional cost on to their British customers, but I suspect quite a few won't bother and will just shut down their shops to UK customers.

They'd just have to send it DAP then the recipient pays the VAT (which they should have been doing anyway). Its 20% vat the same as on all sales afaik.

 

[tommers]

that mould must be a powerful hallucinogen:

This is all so fucking depressing.

 

[Badgers]

Missed the news today but seems to be going well again

 

[Streathamite]

May has snookered herself.
She either revokes A50 - and the Conservative party explodes, or begs an extension off the EU,and concedes a 2nd referendum, and the Tory party explodes, or she goes for no deal, and the economy - and large parts of the country Go completely tit's up

 

[Streathamite]

That's true but it cuts both ways - lots of remain voters could accept leaving if they felt certain that Corbyn would sort out the NHS crisis, stop austerity, create jobs etc.

Very true,but would it be possible to do so if the economy,thank to Brexiteers, was at best stagnant,and at worst mired in deep recession?

 

[philosophical]

Zugzwang

 

[Crispy]

May had snookered herself.
She either revokes A50 - and the Conservative party explodes, or begs an extension off the EU,and concedes a 2nd referendum, and the Tory party explodes, or she goes for no deal, and the economy - and large parts of the country Go completely tit's up

The Tory party appears to be unexploded in your third option. That's got to be what they'll go for then.

 

[DexterTCN]

here's an unsolicited tweet without comment

 

[Streathamite]

The Tory party appears to be unexploded in your third option. That's got to be what they'll go for then.

Probably,yes,and they'll unite as one to blame the entire ensuing shitshow on Brussels and Labour

 

[Wilf]

If only the naked rambler had published a few papers, he wouldn't have spent so long in Barlinnie.

After the Cambridge economist appears in the nip, we've now got Rachel Johnson doing (almost) the same:
Rachel Johnson speaks out after 'stripping off' for Brexit attention
I think it's interesting that rich posh people have taken to stripping for Remain - or, as Johnson said, 'I know it can be hard to get your voice heard about Brexit nowadays'. The perhaps obvious contrast is that Cameron accidentally created a space for people who didn't normally get their voice heard in 2016. Now it's those with the most public voices - an academic and a journalist - who are left moaning.

Worth pointing out that I don't think Brexit has opened up a permanent space for people's voices. Nor, to state the obvious (and shouldn't have to 800 pages in), can all of the 52% be reduced down to working class rage. But it is revealing (pun intended) to see the lengths some of those already with a voice feel they have to go to.

 

[DotCommunist]

Who will get their cock out for leave I wonder?

 

[Sue]

Who will get their cock out for leave I wonder?

Is that an offer we can't refuse..?

 

[Wilf]

Who will get their cock out for leave I wonder?

Neil Warnock's been all decent after his player died, but give it another week...

 

[Raheem]

Who will get their cock out for leave I wonder?

David Cameron and Boris Johnson, three years ago.

 

[SpineyNorman]

here's an unsolicited tweet without comment

Are you trying to get people to back no deal now? What's good for the CBI is good for the proles eh?

 

[Brainaddict]

The Tory party appears to be unexploded in your third option. That's got to be what they'll go for then.

But no-deal would potentially make the tories unelectable for years. This is where it looks to me like they've gone stark staring mad. If the ERG get what they seem to want, no-one will ever forgive them for it. If the Tories bow to the ERG in allowing it to happen, and there is chaos with a no-deal brexit, people won't forget it in a hurry. I guess in the same way Cameron was utterly convinced he could get the outcome he wanted, May is arrogant enough to think she can flirt with and appease the ERG nutters while still getting the result that she wants. You'd think she'd see Cameron as an object lesson but she appears to see him as a role model.

 

[SpineyNorman]

Who will get their cock out for leave I wonder?

I reckon Cameron in an unexpected twist.

 

[fishfinger]

Who will get their cock out for leave I wonder?

Boris, stroking his cock:

 

[danny la rouge]

I reckon Cameron in an unexpected twist.

If there are pigs involved, definitely.